Every season fantasy players compile their own “do not draft” list for a variety of reasons. Most commonly is because we were burned by a player in the previous season. Our own bias is a strong influence when drafting. It is not optimal to have a “never again” stance. It is a smart strategy to consider the price of a player. Every player is worth drafting at some point. Below is a list of players we are likely to be fading at the current cost.
Odell Beckham (ADP 29, WR12)
There is no denying that Odell Beckham is still likely one of the NFL’s best WR talents. However, OBJ has not been able to stay healthy over a significant portion of his career and had trouble developing on-field chemistry with the Browns offense in 2019. We do need to consider that the Freddie Kitchens-led Browns were likely more dysfunctional than expected and new head coach Kevin Stefanski should have the offense more prepared in 2020. Currently, Beckham is getting drafted ahead of players like Allen Robinson and Todd Gurley, both of whom we prefer in a vacuum. Adding to the concern for Beckham, Baker Mayfield took a step backward from his promising rookie year. We certainly still see the case for Beckham but there is more risk with him than in past years.
Courtland Sutton (ADP 38, WR15)
Sutton is another example of a player where we like his talent, but conditions around him became less desirable post-NFL draft. The Denver Broncos used their first two picks in the draft to take pass-catchers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Denver also added upside TE Albert Okwuegbunam in the fourth round. Second-year TE Noah Fant can be projected to take a step forward and free-agent acquisition RB Melvin Gordon gives the team a credible three-down RB who will attract looks in the receiving game as well. All of this adds up to less projectable target volume for Sutton. At his current early fourth-round draft price, RosterWatch is looking elsewhere for fantasy production. Should Sutton fall to the late fifth or early sixth round, his value starts to become more palatable.
Deebo Samuel (ADP 79 Overall WR27)
RosterWatch senior analyst, “Trashman,” has made it clear he does not trust San Fransisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers used a first-round pick on WR Brandon Aiyuk, who head coach Mike Shanahan said will be integrated into San Fran’s win now offense right away. The offense is still likely to feature a heavy multi-runner attack and alpha TE George Kittle the preferred weapon of the passing game. This could lead to more inconsistency than the market is projecting for second-year WR Deebo Samuel. We have no problem seeing the upside of Samuel, a truly Golden Son, but his current price is not in-line with the downside he presents for fantasy players. We prefer a player such as DJ Chark in this range currently.
John Brown (ADP 84 Overall WR43)
John Brown was a pleasant surprise in 2019. His fit with the Bills and QB Josh Allen was seamless. We need to consider that Buffalo traded away their 2020 first-round pick to acquire WR Stefon Diggs and drafted well rounded RB Zack Moss in the third round. We anticipate that John Brown’s ADP will fall as the draft season moves on, but we recommend early best ball players pass over him for players RosterWatch prefers at similar ADPs like Derrius Guice, Diontae Johnson, and Emanuel Sanders.