RWi Fantasy Football Draft Tool: Early-Season Strength of Schedule – RBs

alex bylineAs we begin providing inputs to the maniacal RosterWatch Computer Genius for the Week 1 Matchup Tool, we’ve come to our early baselines regarding how each NFL team is slated to start the season as a fantasy matchup versus each position. The outputs are based on data available to us so far regarding player team changes and organizational scheme adjustments and are sure to change somewhat through the preseason as positional battles are won in camp. This is because, as always, the inputs for the Matchup Tool are based not only on standard “fantasy points against,” but also on individual scouting grades for each member of the specific defense that will be defending the pass, rushing the passer or attempting to stop the run.

Here we’ve taken the Top 60 or so RBs by ADP in early redraft-league drafts per FFCalculator.com and outlined each WR’s first five matchups of the season.

At RosterWatch, one of our mantras is to always get off to a fast start in fantasy, and identifying players with great (and not-so-great) early-season fantasy schedules can set the stage for handling phases two and three of the fantasy grind from more of a position of strength. The colors in the weekly matchup cells mean the same things they mean on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. The more blue, the easier the schedule, the more red and pink, the harder.

RED: Horrible matchup
PINK: Bad matchup
WHITE: Average matchup
LIGHT BLUE: Good matchup
BLUE: Great matchup

RB Fast Start

23 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Scottie D

    Hey. Simple question. I have the 2nd pick in the first round. I believe the guy picking first is taking Peterson. Bell is a keeper. I am trying to decide between Charles and Lacy. It is a full point PPR. Normally, I would take Charles, but I am worried about Reid not giving him enough touches. What do you think> Thanks.

    1. ↓ Post By JessePinkman

      I’ll be interested to see what the cheat sheet says but have you thought about Antonio Brown? He’s a 15-point weekly lock in PPR.

      Speaking of the cheatsheet, when is it going to be available?

      1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

        JP – It will be available early next week, we’ll send out an email when V.1 is live. THX for reading, and agreed, on Scottie’s question, I’d take Antonio Brown there in PPR. Should still have a shot at the Jeremy Hills and Forsetts of the world when he picks at the next turn.

  2. ↓ Post By Irishcav

    Big fan of this website.

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Thx Irish we’re glad to have ya.

  3. ↓ Post By Scottie D

    Thank you. If I insist on Charles or Lacy, who do you take in a PPR? Thank you.

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      I think the cheat sheet will lean Charles, but it’s very close. We couldn’t fault you for going either way as we view them as in the same tier. If you don’t have to draft this weekend, hold out for the cheat sheet early next week for a final answer.

      1. ↓ Post By Scottie D

        Thank you. I can also keep K Davis with a 12th rd pick. A minor consideration in my slight lean toward drafting Charles at 1.2.

  4. ↓ Post By Scottie D

    BTW, I think Antonio B is also being kept.

  5. ↓ Post By Scottie D

    Another unrelated question (I sincerely appreciate your time). I think I am gong to keep Eli Manning with a 12th round pick. How comfortable would you be with him as a QB1? Or, should I make sure to pick Big Ben or Romo, etc . . ? Thank you.

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      We love packaging Eli with another player like that. If you can’t get Romo or BB at value, a sneaky default option is Sam Bradford who’s worth a late flier.

  6. ↓ Post By Scottie D

    I am eagerly awaiting your cheat sheet. It is an ingenious concept. I am not asking this questions to be a jerk. You guys are great at what you do. Last year, you had Floyd and especially Gerhardt ranked considerably higher than most experts. Serious question . . . what do you think you learned from ranking these guys so aggressively and missing. I am curious to see what players you are aggressively pushing this year. Again, I am not being snarky in any way. I am curious about the thought process. Thank you.

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      Thx Scottie – I think the biggest thing we learned from Gerhart is that we shifted some things to make talent more important than situation – we’ll probably be a little higher on Sammy Watkins this season than most, as an example. Most importantly, it’ the reason we started going to six weeks of work maniacally grading the OLs prior to the season starting. All the OL articles and research you see here basically thanks to that guy. : )

  7. ↓ Post By Matachi

    I need help picking 3 of the following 4 keepers in a 10 team ppr league. I can keep them forever and have the opportunity to trade one away for a draft pick also. Eddie Lacey. Dez Bryant. Antonio brown. Odell beckham. Thanks for the help guys

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      We would normally keep the three WRs in this case, but worry that if everyone else can keep 4 that there might not be any RBs left. If you think this is the case, keep Lacy, Brown, ODB. If you think that at least RB2-types will be available to fill out your roster, keep the 3 WRs.

  8. ↓ Post By Team_Ozmatic

    Had the first pick in my 10 team PPR league. Took Antonio Brown, then back up I went with Forte and CJ Anderson. My question is should I drop a player and handcuff Ronnie Hillman or leave it alone? RB’s on bench: Joseph Randle, Latavius Murray, Ameer Abdullah, and Todd Gurly.

    Thanks in Advance

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i don’t think of hillman as a handcuff so much as a compliment. i might drop randle for him though if dallas picks up another back.

  9. ↓ Post By jocrawfo

    Hoping you could give me a little input on my draft – question for anyone really. I followed the cheat sheet. I picked 11 of 14. Here is what I got, i’m a little worried about RB and TE. Let me know what you think. Starters are qb, rb,rb, wr, wr, wr\rb\te, te

    Mathew Stafford
    ODB
    AJ Green
    Nelson Agholar
    Doug Martin
    Carlos Hyde
    Bishop Sankey
    Tevin Coleman
    TJ Yeldon
    Breshad Perriman
    Richard Rogers

    I have to drop one of them to pick up a dst, was thinking that would be Perriman since he’s pretty banged up at the moment. I think I need my one or more of my RBs to outperform draft value. Thought?

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      i’m not terribly worried about the rbs. i think martin, yeldon, and potentially coleman will outperform their draft values. you’re right in dropping perriman here.

  10. ↓ Post By CoryA

    Hey guys, Got pick 12 in my 14 team PPR league, used the cheat sheet, and here’s what I got. Looking for general advice and where I need to shore up things. I will have bye week problems week 9&10
    Q Stafford
    WR J Jones, E Sanders, (S Smith Sr., R White, C Shorts)
    RB M Forte, A Abdullah (D Freeman, C Sims)
    Flex B Marshall
    TE K Rudolph
    K P Dawson
    DEF NYJ

    Thanks!

    1. ↓ Post By Dorian Colbert

      you look strong in every position except rb is a little shallow if coleman takes the lead back role from freeman. i might try trading smith or white for coleman to shore up the atlanta running game.

      1. ↓ Post By CoryA

        Thanks, that helps. I also might be able to get Eli from someone (they have him on the bench, lol) – just need to figure out who they might need in exchange.

  11. ↓ Post By MOTOWN Megatrons

    I have a trade question, i was offered cj anderson and garcon for aj green, its a 12 team ppr.
    i have calvin, aj, maclin and hurns. my rbs are jennings, sankey, mcfadden, freeman, dunbar, doug martin, and ryan mathews, we start two rb, and 3 wr, and a flex

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