Fantasy Strategy: When to Draft RBs and QBs in 2020 Drafts
Roster Construction Strategies
by Alan Seslowsky
There are many roads to travel that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. Drafters have had success going RB early and often, others have won their leagues with a full fade of runners, commonly known as “Zero-RB.” You’ve been told to “Wait on QB,” then you were told to “draft a QB in the first round” one year. Experts shouted “You must get an elite TE,” then the next season, you are told, “Wait on TE, and stream the position.” The more fantasy football-playing experience you gain, the more strategies you learn. The key takeaway is that the market you are drafting in is the most powerful driver of value. Below are a few observations, based on early draft simulations RosterWatch has conducted using our signature tool “The Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet.“
Running Back Inflation
There is extreme inflation in the running back market this year. Running backs with question marks but have projected lead roles are getting drafted ahead of players at other positions that we know are more bankable fantasy assets. For example, running backs like Miles Sanders and Aaron Jones are getting drafted ahead of an elite WR like Tyreek Hill. In a vacuum, this seems like a bad pick to take one of those RBs that have question marks over a rock-solid WR1 like Hill. But, when you step back and look at how the draft board falls via ADP, it starts to make more sense. WR’s that have top 15 upside are available in rounds 4-5, but the running backs in that range are dicey bets at best. The newest version of the Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet will help navigate you through the inflation of the running back market.
Alternate RB Strategy
If you can’t bring yourself to “reach” on RBs early when elite pass-catching options are on the board there is a strategy that can secure your RB roster spots. It comes with risk, but there is a plausible path that may pay off. There are clusters of veteran RBs that have lost value due to their teams selecting a rookie RB with a premium pick. Players like Mark Ingram, Marlon Mack, and Damien Williams can be drafted in rounds 5 through 7 without having to fight the room. These three veteran running backs are being perceived as having been discarded by their teams, when in reality that is likely untrue. It is possible that all three of these players have a significant role, especially in the first month of the season. Other starting RBs with projectable workloads going after the first four rounds are David Montgomery (late 5th), Raheem Mostert (5th round), Sony Michel (late 7th), and both of the Miami RBs, Jordan Howard & Matt Brieda (8th round) and Tevin Coleman (10th round). All of these players come with risk but are very suitable “Zero-RB” plays this season.
QB or Not QB (Early) That is The Question
Every season there are one or two QBs that get consideration in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft. 2020 is no different. Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes form the elite tier this year and are currently going on the two-three turn in 12 team drafts. RosterWatch’s proven track record of fantasy success generally is to fade QB that early, but there is an escape hatch built into the Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet should those difference-making QBs fall to a certain point of round three. It is difficult to reconcile taking one of those QBs when the next tier of QBs that includes Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott can be drafted almost four rounds later. The updated version of the Cheat Sheet safely steers you toward value should you need to deploy either QB strategy.
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Hey fellows!
Looking forward to another successful year under the wing of the Nation! Dynasty League question?
A.j. Brown for Joe Burrows?
My roster
QB: D Jones
J Burrows
RB. C McCaffrey
N Chubb
K Drake
R Jones
K Vaughan
WR. D Chark
T Mclaurin
D Slayton
R. Anderson
A Miller
A Lazard
P Willams
J Hurd
Taxi Squad
L Perine
R Calais
When, and if I drop Burrows I would add Gardner Minshew.
*trade Burrows. Lol
Another owner offers:
Cortland Sutton
Jalen Hurts
For
A Lazard
J Burrows
Cortland Sutton
Jalen Hurts
For
A Lazard
J Burrows
Assuming 1QB league The Sutton side is the one I like better. Even in the SuperFlex dynasty, I would still lean the Suton side, but it is a lot closer. These are interesting trade proposdals
Hi PappaHoops.
If this is a 1QB league I def would roster AJ Brown over Joe Burrow. If it is a SuperFlex League where you can start 2 QBs then I would favor Joe Burrow
This is a 1 QB league. You like the Sutton/Hurst for Lazard/Burrow even though I give up Lazard as well as Borrows over a AJ Brown for Burrow deal? Or would you like a Burrows for Sutton deal the best? I am in the drivers seat in this one. The two owners want Borrow in a bad way.
So it’s either:
Burrow for Brown
Burrow for Sutton
Burrow/Lazard for Hurts/Sutton
Which one do you like best for my dynasty team with one QB?
PPR. Can Keep 4.
Miles Sanders Late 2nd Round
Chubb 9th Round
Mark Andrews 11th Round
AJ Brown 12th Round
Kareem Hunt 17th Round
Thanks
I would drop Sanders. Go with value.
This comment is not related to this article. Instead, it is my annual request. Namely, please consider adding BYE WEEKs to the the CHEAT SHEET. That is the only important piece of info missing from the decision making aspect of choosing between the suggested players at each turn in a draft. At this point, I use the RW sheet but i also have to refer to another sheet to make sure that I do not compromise my draft with too many players with the same BYE. IE: In 2QB leagues, drafting two or three QBs with the same BYE it NOT a good thing – no matter what the RW sheet suggests at that point in any given draft. How tough can it be to add that innocuous little number next to each player. They say we’re in uncharted waters at this point time in our history and changes are a happening. Maybe this is a good time for this change too.