Running Back ADP Changes
by Alan Seslowsky
For the passionate fantasy football players who start drafting best ball leagues in February, there are always adjustments to be made once the real NFL draft is finished. Veteran RB values are affected by the landing spots of rookies. Below are a few significant average draft position (ADP) shakeups in the running back market.
Aaron Jones: Stock Dropping
The Packers have shown a lack of trust in Aaron Jones through multiple coaching staffs. At the 2020 NFL combine RosterWatch co-founder, Alex Dunlap, asked Head Coach Matt Lafleur if he has finally seen enough production from Aaron Jones to finally commit to him? Coach Lafleur’s reply was that Green Bay prefers a multi-back approach. The Packers then drafted rookie RB AJ Dillon in the second round. In addition, there are whispers that Aaron Jones may hold out in an attempt to attain long-term security. Early in best ball draft season Aaron Jones was a locked-in first-round pick. With all of the developments stated above, RosterWatch believes it is now the time to pivot off Jones at his ADP in the middle of the second round of fantasy drafts.
Leonard Fournette– Market Uncertainty
Leonard Fournette is one of the most fascinating RBs in fantasy football this season. The Jaguars openly tried to trade him during the draft. They had no takers. The lack of trade partners was likely due to his contract status. Fournette has one year remaining on his rookie deal, and teams were likely hesitant to trade an asset for short term return. Jacksonville did not draft an RB, setting Fournette up for another monster workload. His longterm value in dynasty is certainly a question mark, but his third-round ADP in redraft is appealing.
There is a group of veteran RBs that have been big producers over the past three seasons that have recently fallen in drafts. Mark Ingram is one of them. The main reason is that Baltimore used a premium draft pick to select an elite RB prospect, JK Dobbins. At age 30, Mark Ingram finished 2019 as the RB10 overall for fantasy, defying the traditional age death sentence for runners. RosterWatch senior analyst, Trashman, believes that as long as Mark Ingram is healthy we will see similar elite production from him in 2020. Operating on this logical assumption, he is a steal at his late third-round ADP. However, Alex Dunlap disagrees, as he believes the combination of JK Dobbins’ addition, Ingram’s accelerating age and likely natural TD regression from 2019 make Ingram less of a sure thing than Trashman would give him credit for.
Devin Singletary Gets a Backfield Partner
Buffalo selected RB Zack Moss in the third round of the draft. RosterWatch co-founder, Alex Dunlap’s pre-draft grade on Moss was lower than the fantasy industry consensus. Alex did note that Pro Football Focus (PFF) had Moss as the best runner in the class over the past three seasons. Moss had the most forced missed tackles and the best elusive rating in that time period. There are things to like about Moss. There still will be plenty of rushing attempts to go around on the run-heavy Bills. Singletary’s ADP is falling, and it has not yet reached its bottom. RosterWatch is going to monitor Singletary closely in order to ensure we get the best value.