Injury and Uncertainty Discounts
by Alan Seslowsky

There comes a point in every fantasy football draft where you look around at the “best players available” list and all you can think to yourself is “ew, gross.” Our recency bias kicks in for players that underperformed in the previous season or who is coming off an injury. However, there is value to be gained by looking at ADP for the players that nobody wants. Below is a shortlist of players RosterWatch is exploring that have been marked as injury or performance risks.

AJ Green: Same Player, Different Year?

Many experienced fantasy analysts are unsure of how to value AJ Green. At his peak, he is a hall of fame talent and elite fantasy producer. We all know the major issue with AJ Green has been his durability. He missed most of the 2018 season, then a pre-season injury in 2019 resulted in him missing the whole year ’19 campaign. AJ Green hasn’t played a down of live-action NFL football in 18 months. Add to it he is entering his age 32 season, and you could easily take a “do not draft” stance on Green. Let’s go back a year ago to the summer of 2019. In August, drafters were picking AJ Green in the 5th round knowing he was injured. In 2020, we know he is healthy, yet we are not touching him until the 7th round. It doesn’t add up. Even with one year of age added on, there was no wear and tear on his body from last season. There aren’t many WRs in this range that have a plausible path to a top 10 WR finish, other than AJ Green. The risk is more than priced in at his current cost. 

 

Will Fuller: Week-Winning Upside Without The Cost

Will Fuller’s outlook is similar to AJ Green. A proven week-winning high upside WR, who has had major durability issues. We all remember Week 5 in 2019 when Fuller put up a 14/217/3 line against Atlanta. That equated to 50 or more fantasy points in most leagues and ended you in DFS if you did not have him. The theme of this article is not to point out that players like Fuller can’t be counted on for your fantasy team, but rather, to look at the upside versus the cost. Many of the teams you are competing with in your fantasy leagues will choose a player for their WR3 that is “safe.” A player they know will score them low double-digit fantasy points each week. RosterWatch likes the idea of using a volatile high upside player like Fuller as your WR3. Last year, Fuller was getting drafted in the early 5th round. In 2020 you will need to pay an 8th round pick, and there is inarguably more upside with the vacated targets from DeAndre Hopkins. 

 

Jarvis Landry: Under-Reported Injury

Landry has only missed one game in the last three seasons. He has been the definition of an iron man. Seemingly always undervalued in PPR leagues, Landry’s last three finishes were WR14, WR21, WR8; yet he usually gets drafted outside of the top 15 players at his position. 2020 is a different story. His ADP is WR32, and for good reason. An under-reported story is that Jarvis had serious hip surgery in February of 2020. His timetable for recovery was estimated to be 6-8 months.  A good practice we have developed at RosterWatch is to use the backend of the timetable that is provided. Let’s split the difference for this thought exercise. A Seven-month recovery would put Jarvis back on the field at the end of September. Add in a game or two for him to get his football shape back up to speed; now we are talking about six games until you can use him in your fantasy lineup. That is almost half of the fantasy regular season. In most leagues where you have to start two to three WRs and only have five bench spots, Jarvis is not draftable, at ADP, in 16-round drafts. There have been reports quoting Landry proclaiming himself “ahead of schedule,” but players tend to be optimistic, especially during early summer. Of course, it is possible he is at full speed Week 1, but at his current cost, it has more risk than reward in our judgment.