Kansa City Chiefs Fantasy Outlook: CEH, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins
by Alan Seslowsky

There is no doubt that one of the most fantasy football friendly offenses in the NFL is the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as Patrick Mahomes stays healthy every running back, wide receiver and tight end on the roster needs to be on your “watch list.” At any point, a player who is on the depth chart could be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. In this column, we are going to examine three Chiefs players that will see the field early on.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Pass Blocking Is Key

It was a bit of a surprise when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first and only running back selected in the first round of the real NFL draft. There were three RB prospects (Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and JK Dobbins) that were graded slightly higher on many analyst’s draft boards. Though D’Andre Swift was drafted only three picks later, CEH’s “first-round draft capital” and landing spot with the Chiefs, reasonably make him the best option for early fantasy success. CEH’s ADP in drafts since May has ranged from a mid to late-second-round pick. Occasionally, he would “fall” to the very early third round. CEH’s skeptics pointed to veteran RB Damien Williams, who by observation, had a reasonable case to be the 2019 Super Bowl MVP. In addition to having been a highly functional running back in stretches with the Chiefs; RosterWatch podcast (#272) guest, Terez Paylor, underlined that Damien Williams is an elite pass blocker. Williams’ ability to pass block would have undoubtedly kept him on the field in 2020, limiting the snaps for CEH. Paylor also points out that the Chiefs likely believed CEH could pass-block too, or they would not have invested a first-round pick in him. The major obstruction to immediate playing time is now gone, as Damien Williams has opted out of the 2020 season. CEH’s draft cost skyrocketed to the 8th overall pick. It is unproductive to argue if CEH is worth the 8th overall pick. You either believe it or you are a skeptic. The only thing that we can say for certain if you want to take the gamble, it will cost you a first-round pick. 

Mecole Hardman: We may need to wait until 2021

Mecole Hardman is a player that had not received too much off-season buzz until recently. The fantasy community acknowledges his high-efficiency rookie season; evident by his monster 20.6 yards per target. It can’t be ignored that Hardman’s rookie season opportunities were limited with only 41 passing targets. With presumed starting WRs Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins healthy, along with target hog TE Travis Kelce, it is hard to see where Hardman’s volume increase can come from. As we noted above, in a Covid-19 context, Hardman could be in a great spot should he be thrust into one of the primary pass-catching options this season. Again referencing RosterWatch podcast #272, special guest and known Chiefs Insider Terez Paylor — he believes that Hardman’s breakout year is more likely to be 2021. Hardman will be barely 23 years old by 2021 and still projects as an excellent player with fantasy relevance. 

 

Sammy Watkins A Sleeper?

Sammy Watkins is currently getting drafted as the WR57, somewhere in the 10th round. Watkins has been a disappointment relative to expectations for much of his fantasy football career. That said, how is a starting WR in a Patrick Mahomes offense available in the 10th round? It appears to be a severe blind spot of the draft market. We do not even have to project for Sammy Watkins. He has banked production. Week one of 2019, when Mahomes was at full health, Watkins produced a 9/198/3 line that equated to about 45 PPR fantasy points. The ceiling is there, and if he stays healthy, there should be a solid floor, too. Watkins took a pay cut to stay with the team, and it is reasonable to think the team plans to use him. This is a contract year for Watkins, and though there is nothing scientific to connect a contract year with production, it could serve as motivation for Watkins to do what is needed to stay healthy and be productive. Sammy Watkins is a legitimate sleeper pick in 2020, given his ADP.