Mid-Round RBs With Upside: Cam Akers, David Johnson, Antonio Gibson

Mid-Round RBs With Upside: Cam Akers, David Johnson, Antonio Gibson
by Alan Seslowsky

If you have been participating in mock drafts, best ball contests, or dynasty startups this offseason you may have noticed that the cost of RBs has been inflated. There are running backs with lower projected outcomes getting drafted ahead of top 10 wide receivers. It makes sense based on the positional scarcity for runners, and positional abundance for wide receivers. All of that said, there is a group of running backs not getting drafted in the top 50 picks that have a plausible path to be a top 12 RBs. Of course, these players have risk, which is why their ADP is outside of the first four rounds. Some of the risks are rational, and in other situations, it is more narrative-driven. Below is a list of running backs that have a case for top 12 RB production.

Cam Akers (ADP 75, RB29)

It is easy to make the case for or against Akers getting drafted in the 6th round of most 12 team leagues. The Rams used a second-round pick in the 2020 NFL draft to take him. Todd Gurley is no longer on the team, and second-year running back Darrell Henderson did not do anything to seize the job last season. The Rams still project to be a top 10 offense, and Akers could be a key piece of their attack. Those who make a case against Akers point to how poor the Ram’s offensive line projects to be. The counter is that Akers did run behind one of the nation’s worst lines at Florida State last year, perhaps one reason the Rams thought he was a fit(?) There is a risk that the Rams could deploy a committee of three if Malcolm Brown stays involved, and Henderson’s role grows this season. Those fading the RB inflation should consider Akers at cost and can hedge, if you’re into that kind of thing, by drafting Henderson at his 10th round ADP. 

 

David Johnson (ADP 60, RB22)

On RosterWatch podcast #273, special guest Derek Brown said: “I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Bill O’Brien is a great GM, or that trading DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson made a lot of sense, but David Johnson is in a smash spot this year.” As long as David Johnson stays healthy, he is going to get every opportunity to produce. Even the corpse of Carlos Hyde was able to be useful for fantasy in 2019 for the Texans. Bill O’Brien may want to justify what most think was a bad trade, further securing a large role for David Johnson. Derek Brown also pointed out that Houston has an under-rated offensive line, who in 2019 was top 12 in some offensive line metrics like adjusted line yards. Initial reports also indicate the team is very high on the development of second-year OT Tytus Howard.

 

Antonio Gibson (ADP 116, RB 41) 

At the time of publication, Antonio Gibson is the hottest name in fantasy football. Once Washington released Derrius Guice, Gibson shot up draft boards from a 14th round flier to a 9th round “hero pick.” RosterWatch co-founders Alex Dunlap and Byron Lambert, along with The Podfather, Matt Kelley of RotoUnderworld are widely recognized as the pioneer Antonio Gibson truthers. In a recent tweet, ESPN’s Mathew Berry called out RosterWatch for their forward-looking scouting profile on Gibson. Gibson is big, fast, has burst, and can catch the football. Adrian Peterson is still there and likely will start the season as the early down grinder. This was also the case for Peterson in New Orleans when then-rookie Alvin Kamara broke out, triggering Peterson’s release. The upside is easy to see for Gibson, and even at his new price, Gibson makes a fine pick outside of the top 50 that could plausibly finish in the top 12 at his position if things fall perfectly into place.

18 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Spinman

    Are we holding K Vaughn, given last East Bruce A comments about R Jones?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yes, Vaughn is still a nice keep

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      The injury news around the NFL heated up yesterday. Those backup RBs with upside are going to be useful. I agree to hold KV.

  2. ↓ Post By R A

    Byron, I asked you about this situation last week and now I have a legit offer on the table. 10 team full PPR dynasty.

    I get: Ridley, 2021 1st

    I give: Diggs, AJG, one of Bryce Love or Vaughn

    Current team

    QB: Mahomes

    WR: Evans, Allen, AJG, AJB, Diggs, Slayton, Sutton, JJAW, J Jefferson, Pittman, Trashman’s favorite, Mims

    RB: Mixon, Cook, Chubb, Harris, Love, Vaughn, Penny

    TE: Kittle

    Good deal? I’m pretty high on Ridley. Opens up a spot to add Mims/and or Vaughn and possibly a backup TE.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Hi RA:

      I like that deal for you. It is a fair trade, but getting Ridley and the 1st is appealing. I’m on team Ridley breakout for 2020. Good luck, I hope it works out for you.

      1. ↓ Post By R A

        Thanks Alan! Appreciate your input. I slept on it and feel good about it. I know Byron is really high on Vaughn long term, and will probably recommend me keeping him and dealing Love, but I’m still split. What do you say?

        1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

          RA

          As you noted Byron has had a strong prospect grade on Vaughn. I pay attention when Byron is ahead of the market on rookies. It his super-power. Byron/Alex/Trash made sure we all had plenty of players like Cooper Kupp and many other golden sons when the market was asleep

  3. ↓ Post By R A

    Forgot to add that I also give up a 2021 2nd.

    Get: Ridley, 2021 1st

    Give: Diggs, AJG, Love or Vaughn, 2021 2nd

    1. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

      I slam the accept button if its for love and AJG
      and I press the button calmly and confidently if its for Vaughn

  4. ↓ Post By Ron

    Quick question gentlemen. Why would you rank Drake higher than miles sanders on ppr? Is it because of the depth of the eagles having Boston Scott and cardinals not having anyone behind Drake? Also, the O-line for the eagles is better than Arizona. Just some clarification please.

    1. ↓ Post By Baron VonIronCock

      I am full fade on drake and I am the only guy on the planet.
      I would imagine its the Petersen effect
      where you never know if he is going to roll out 3 rbs a game for 7 touches each…

      they see drake as a heavy usage guy in a good offense

      I am avoiding both at that point in drafts and going with howard /chubb / mixon/
      .. but I am not RW

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Ron- ADP had likely dictated that until recently in PPR formats. Generally, Alex and Trashman super bullish on Drake. They feel he has a little clearer path to production in that high paced offense, and the team has shown a tangible commitment to him. We will discuss this soon.

        1. ↓ Post By FrankGrimes

          Who is this seslowski character?
          David Johnson is a turd.
          Stay away. Thank me later!

          1. Post By Alan Seslowsky

            Hey Frank:

            I will agree with you that there has been no worse investment in fantasy than David Johnson over the last 3 years. He has been a first round pick that more or less busted.

            Drafting DJ in 2020 (in round 4/5)) is telling yourself a story that it is a volume play that has the backing of the coaches. As we know, Bill OB was widely panned for trading Hopkins FOR DJ. There is a plausible narrative that Bill OB will want to give his investment in DJ every chance to pay off.

            The market mostly agrees with you that DJ is a “hold your nose” pick. But for those not wanting to pay up for their RB2 and take WRs in round 2/ and 3, DJ is a guy with a job in a Watson offense.

            So I do concur there is risk, but I believe it is priced in.

      2. ↓ Post By The Real Oldschool92

        I am full on with Drake but full fade on Nixon and Chubb. Respect your stand Baron and as long as we go with equal value it works out.

  5. ↓ Post By Derrike

    . 5 PPR Starts 2 rb 3 wr and a flex. Defending champion picking 14th.

    My keepers are Julio/Hopkins/Lamar.

    I’ll be using the cheat sheet of course. I’ll have to reach for a RB at that spot correct? Or more of a best player available?

    Thanks guys!

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Derrike:

      First off, nice humble brag on being the defending champ, lol love that. Normally my opinion is never over-reach on a position and take the “lesser” player but with your specific set up, I think you nailed it. You are LOADED at WR/QB. Just stockpile RBs you feel good about unless there is an obvious talent gap. For example If you re looking Terry McLaurin vs an RB like James White (which is possible in a keeper league) You need to pass on RB and figure it out later.

      Good luck brother. We will be routing for you to bring home the back to back titles 🙂

      1. ↓ Post By Derrike

        Thanks man! I was on the same path of thinking! Going for ring three of this long standing league! Appreciate the insight!

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