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NFL Week 2 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions

NFL Week 2 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
by Can’t Miss Mitch, Peter the Irish Guy, and featuring the ALGO. ACCESS the Algo’s Top 11 picks each week of the season with a premium membership, where you’ll also have access to betting content such as money vs. bet percentages across sportsbook, state-centric prop finders and premium field-view content from Sports Injury Central.

The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions. Through 17 games THE ALGO has a 70.5% hit rate on totals and a 60% success rate on TOP 5.


Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Predicted Score: GB 24.63 – ATL 22.58

Spread: ATL -1.5 Total 40.5

Overall Metrics

Offense vs. Defense

Green Bay has a high-scoring offense, putting up an impressive 38 points per game (#2), in contrast to Atlanta’s solid 24 points per game (#10). Defensively, both teams are fairly solid, with Green Bay allowing 20 points per game (#14) and Atlanta just 10 (#5).

Efficiency Metrics

Green Bay is more efficient per play, averaging 0.633 points (#2) and 5.5 yards (#6). Atlanta, though less efficient, still puts up respectable numbers with 0.5 points per play (#4) and 4.6 yards per play (#19).

The Key Numbers

  1. 3rd Down Conversion: Green Bay boasts an impressive 56.25% conversion rate on 3rd downs (#3), while Atlanta lags at 20% (#29). Green Bay’s defense is also stingy, allowing just 23.08% (#6) of 3rd downs to be converted.
  2. Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams are at 100% in terms of Red Zone Scoring TDs, but Green Bay has been in the Red Zone far more frequently. Defensively, both are tied at 50% (#10).
  3. Rushing Stats: Atlanta has the edge with 5.0 yards per rush (#5) and 130 rush yards per game (#7). Green Bay is less effective on the ground, averaging only 2.9 yards per rush (#26).
  4. Passing Game: Green Bay averages a solid 8.8 yards per pass (#3), despite a lower completion rate of 55.56% (#26). Atlanta’s passing game has been less explosive but extremely accurate, with a completion rate of 83.33% (#1).
  5. QB Protection: Atlanta has a QB sacked rate of 18.18% (#31), which is alarmingly high, especially against Green Bay’s respectable sack rate of 9.76% (#10).
  6. Defensive Strength: Atlanta has been more effective in limiting opponents’ passing yards (127.0 yards per game, #7) and completion rate (52.63%, #4), but their run defense needs improvement (#27 in yards per rush allowed).

Value Index: 3.56

Pick: Green Bay/Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

Predicted Score: TB 23.50 – CHI 17.52

Spread: TB -2.5 Total 41

Overall Metrics

Offense vs. Defense

Both teams are scoring at an identical pace of 20 points per game, ranking at #16. Tampa Bay has a slight defensive edge, allowing 17 points per game (#12) as opposed to Chicago’s 38 (#31).

Efficiency Metrics

Tampa Bay’s offense is more efficient in terms of Points/Play at 0.294 (#19) compared to Chicago at 0.286 (#20). However, both teams have defensive concerns; Tampa Bay allows 0.270 Points/Play (#9), while Chicago is very leaky at 0.633 (#31).

The Key Numbers

  1. 3rd Down Conversion: Tampa Bay converts 35.29% of their 3rd downs (#18), better than Chicago’s 23.08% (#27). On defense, Tampa Bay allows a 42.86% conversion rate (#21), while Chicago is even more vulnerable at 56.25% (#30).
  2. Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have the same Red Zone Scoring (TD) rate at 50% (#17), but defensively, Tampa Bay has a significant edge, allowing just 33.33% (#6) compared to Chicago’s 100% (#28).
  3. Rushing: Chicago seems to have a better run game with 4.2 yards per rush (#12) and 122 rush yards per game (#8). In contrast, Tampa Bay is struggling with just 2.2 yards per rush (#31).
  4. Passing: Neither team is particularly impressive in the air. Tampa Bay averages 5.0 yards per pass (#23) compared to Chicago’s 5.1 (#20). Defensively, both teams have allowed a high amount of yards per pass (Tampa Bay at 7.5 (#27) and Chicago at 8.8 (#30)).
  5. Quarterback Protection: Tampa Bay has been far better at protecting the QB with a 2.86% sacked rate (#7). Chicago’s QBs have been sacked at a rate of 9.76% (#22).
  6. Defensive Strength: Tampa Bay’s defense stands out in the running game, allowing only 2.4 yards per rush (#3) and 41 rush yards per game (#1). Chicago’s defense is not too shabby against the run either, allowing 2.9 yards per rush (#6).

Value Index: 3.48

Pick: Tampa Bay

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants

Predicted Score: NYG 19.27 – AZ 17.57

Spread: NYG -4.5 Total 39.5

Overall Metrics

Offense vs. Defense

The Cardinals are averaging 16.0 points per game, ranked 22nd in the league, while the Giants have the unfortunate distinction of being 32nd in this category. On the defensive end, the Cardinals are allowing an average of 20.0 points per game (ranked 14th), as opposed to the Giants who are at the bottom of the league, allowing 40.0 points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

In terms of yards per play, both teams are struggling offensively, but the Cardinals have a much better defensive output. They rank 5th in the league, allowing only 3.8 yards per play, whereas the Giants rank 18th, allowing 4.8 yards per play.

Third Down and Red Zone Efficiency

On 3rd down, the Cardinals are converting at a rate of 28.57% (24th in the league) while the Giants are slightly better at 31.25% (23rd). However, Arizona’s defense is superior in limiting opponent 3rd down conversions, ranking 12th with a 33.33% allowed rate.

The Intriguing Numbers

  1. QB Sacked %: Arizona ranks 3rd in the league with a sack rate of 16.22%. Considering the Giants’ offensive line has allowed a sack rate of 9.09%, this could be a critical area where the game might tilt in favor of the Cardinals.
  2. Completion Percentage: Arizona has a decent completion rate of 70.00% (9th in the league), a bright spot in their offensive struggle. The Giants’ defense ranks 9th in limiting opponents’ completion to 61.29%.
  3. Red Zone Scoring: Neither team has been effective in the red zone, both ranking 28th. However, the Cardinals’ defense ranks 9th, allowing TDs only 40.00% of the time.
  4. Rushing Stats: The Giants surprisingly rank 12th in rushing yards per game at 108.0, which might be their only way to put up points considering Arizona’s strong pass defense.

Value Index: 2.79

Pick: Arizona

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