Overvalued Players: Amari Cooper, Sony Michel, Cooper Kupp
by Alan Seslowsky

The fantasy football off-season draft market is fascinating to monitor. For those who start drafting (Bestball and Mocks) in March, you get to see player values change, sometimes drastically, without a single down of football being played. This can be due to trades, injuries, and the NFL draft among other variables. When the calendar turns to August, more fantasy players enter the draft market and the true ADP starts to take shape. Below is a shortlist of players that RosterWatch believes are being overvalued based on early August ADP. 

Amari Cooper (ADP 35, WR12)

Amari Cooper’s late third-round ADP is easy to understand. He is the presumed WR1 for Dallas, who projects to be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. There are also over 160 passing targets that have been vacated by the departure of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. The Cowboys did draft RosterWatch’s highest-rated WR rookie prospect CeeDee Lamb, who can soak up a good portion of those targets, along with high upside TE Blake Jarwin. The problem is, Cooper’s game-to-game consistency and his proneness to shrinking in big spots versus the league’s best corners. He can win you weeks but does disappear in stretches. RosterWatch believes Ceedee Lamb can make a year one impact and Michael Gallup showed he is a plus NFL starter in 2019. RosterWatch still loves Amari Cooper but at the end of the third round, The Ultimate Draft Cheat Sheet will be directing you to look elsewhere. Amari Cooper is overvalued in 2020 drafts. 

Sony Michel (ADP 120, RB40)

Back in March and April drafts, RosterWatch was interested in Sony Michel at his 8th round ADP. He was projected to be the starting RB for New England. The Patriots had just lost Tom Brady and projected to start 2019’s fourth-round pick, Jared Stidham. New England was likely to be a run-first team. Though Sony has never been a prolific pass catcher in the NFL, he still looked locked in for early-down work along with high-value goal line touches. In May, news broke that Sony Michel was having foot surgery with an ambiguous timetable for return. July reports said that it was “unclear if Sony would be ready for the start of camp.” Given Sony’s injury history and this latest news, his August ADP of 120 or RB40 is still too rich for RosterWatch. Sony Michel is overvalued. 

 

Cooper Kupp (ADP 34, WR15) 

Longtime subscribers to RosterWatch know that Kupp has “Golden Son” status. For new readers “GS” status is reserved for the most treasured prospects by RosterWatch before they enter the NFL. Kupp has over-performed everyone’s expectations during his career. All of this acknowledged, Cooper Kupp’s late third-round draft price is high for some of the risks. Down the stretch last season, Kupp averaged only 5 targets per game (Weeks 13-16) when the Rams successfully experimented with “12 Personnel”, a positional grouping that features two TEs on the field (1 RB + 2 TE = 12). Kupp did deliver for fantasy, but that was due to “Touchdown Deodorant.”  He’s been a very touchdown-dependent player for his fantasy scoring thus far in the NFL. And it’s likely because has been very good in the RedZone for his career that he gets those high-value targets, but to bank on TDs is not optimal for fantasy. RosterWatch still loves Cooper Kupp, who will always be a true golden son, but at his current cost, we might direct you toward other players in his ADP tier. 

 

• ADP Source NFFC July 20-July 31, 170 drafts