Peyton Hillis to Bucs: Effect on Doug Martin’s 2013 Fantasy Football Value
Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com

Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin is garnering consideration as the third player taken off the board in 2013 redraft leagues, sometimes going as high as No. 2 overall above Arian Foster—a move we will not be advising in the upcoming FREE fantasy draft guide. Sign Up Now!

We at RosterWatch have led the Doug Martin bandwagon since watching him live at the 2012 Senior Bowl and in Indy at the Combine. We loved the system Martin fell into in the 2012 draft, and we still love it today. It doesn’t mean fantasy owners should take Martin above Foster in 2013 fantasy drafts.

And this has nothing to do with Peyton Hillis. The diva, Peyton Hillis who has some things to prove before his recent addition to the Tampa Bay squad shuold be thought of as anything truly noteworthy or situation-changing regarding Martin’s fantasy value.

After having a monster 2010 season that put him on the cover of Madden under OC Brian Daboll in Cleveland, Hillis quickly exited stage right in 2011 with a “strained contract” that he called an ankle or a hamstring or whatever else. Hiillis was rumored to be thought of by the then-lame-duck coaching staff in Cleveland sans Daboll as a diva and a malcontent.

Hillis reunited with Daboll in Kansas City during 2012, a reunion that was optimistcally hoped would result in a formidable counter-punch in the running game to Jamaal Charles who was returning from ACL surgery. Hillis was horrible in 2012, and did not look like anything formidable. Brian Daboll proved to be utterly clueless as to utilization of his personnel also, and with a lack of any decent QB play, the team seemed to basically quit on a horrible season. Dwayne Bowe wanted out badly.

What potential fantasy owners of Doug Martin need to be aware of in Hillis is a very minimal risk that can very likely be mitigated by handcuffing Hillis late in fantasy drafts when taking Martin early.

Bucs RBs coach Earnest Byner has to be the only running backs coach in the NFL to be fired (not once, but twice!) following coaching up two seperate league-leading rushers in Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. When Tampa HC Greg Schiano switched from the zone-blocking scheme to a man-power scheme for the 2012 season, we saw the kind of coach that Byner is in the way Doug Martin ran as a rookie behind a beaten-up offensive line.

Hillis enters a man-power scheme after having his best (and worst) days in the past in a zone scheme. Honestly, Hillis’ skillset has always been more well suited for a man-power scheme, however. In watching back 2010 tape, fans will notice Hillis is at his best in the inside-zone game keying off left tackle when making a cut as opposed to firing into a lane.  

Byner has told the media that Hillis’ role in the Tampa Bay offense is still being defined. The organization will be getting a look at Hillis at both running back and fullback. This makes perfect sense, and gives hopeful Tampa fans visions of Mike Alstott. Hillis can catch, and be used as a weapon in numerous ways. When healthy, and on the field behind what will be a dominant interior returning offensive line in 2013, Hillis’ presence simply must be accounted for by the defense which will earn him more playing time than that of LaGarrette Blount in 2012.

The Tampa offense is suited for, and runs through, Doug Martin, though. The worst case scenario for Martin owners—as with any player—is injury. In the case of a Doug Martin injury, Hillis will become a must-own handcuff. With an offense predicated on doing what it does with Martin, Hillis seems like a plug-and-play replacement at worst if healthy, and at best—a possible season-changing fantasy acquisition for the owner able to land him off waivers the following week.

Martin is a good goalline back, so the possibility of Hillis vulturing TDs does not bother us in the way some power-back/feature-back combos do. The main concern is having to use a valuable draft pick in a  deep 2013 fantasy draft on a handcuff in Hillis. The scheme, the coaching, the personnel and the situaiton suit his skillls perfectly if he is capable of returining to form, and Martin owners can’t risk getting double-whammied with a leaguemate picking up those points off the waiver wire while also losing their workhorse in Martin.