Player Prop Analysis For 2020 Fantasy Drafts: D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Hopkins

Player Prop Analysis For 2020 Fantasy Drafts: D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Hopkins
by Alan Seslowsky

At RosterWatch we create proprietary tools in order to better project players on a weekly and annual basis. Long time Pro Subscribers to RosterWatch.com and newer listeners to our podcast know that one of the key pieces of information we like to pay attention to are the player props provided by credible sportsbooks. The projections represent well-researched projected median outcomes. Below are a few player props that we are examining:

D’Andre Swift (O/U 625 Rushing Yards)

Sportsbooks have set rookie running back, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards total at 625. To put this number in context; The Lion’s leading rushers from 2019 were :

So what can Swift’s projection tell us? What other RBs from 2019 had a similar final output of rushing yards?

As you can see there is a massive difference in final RB ranking with three players that have similar rushing yardage totals. The difference for fantasy (especially PPR) is the pass-catching and TDs. Ekeler caught a whopping 92 passes and had 11 total TDs. Freeman caught 59 passes and had 6 total TDs. Murray caught 34 passes and had 6 total TDs. We can conclude that Swift’s pass-catching will greatly affect his fantasy value. Using Swift’s reception projection of around 35, we can project him similar to the production of Murray; which makes Swift project as more of an RB3 for fantasy. 

 

Jonathan Taylor (O/U 750 Rushing Yards)

Sportsbooks have a higher projection for rookie runner Jonathan Taylor, with 750 rushing yards. To put Taylor’s projection in context, the Colts leading rusher from 2019 was Marlon Mack with 1,091 rushing yards. Taylor’s reception projection of 24 and TD projection of 7.5, is similar to the 2019 production of Ronald Jones. Last season Ronald Jones finished with 724 rush yards, 31 receptions, and 6 TDs. That ranked him as the RB25. It is fair to conclude that Taylor has a positional top 24 floor with upside for more. It’s easy to see the case for Taylor’s ceiling being that the Colt’s have one of the best offensive lines in the league and want to lean on the running game as the base of their offense. 

 

DeAndre Hopkins (O/U 93.5 Receptions)

Hopkins has been a long time foundation player of our fantasy teams. In 2020, we find Hopkins in a new situation. There is uncertainty about Hopkins’ fantasy outlook since he will be playing for a different team, has a new QB, and will operate in a system that projects to spread the ball around, as evidenced by no Cardinal player having more than 75 receptions in 2019. Fantasy players have been able to bank on an eye-popping 163 targets average over the last three seasons. For context Hopkins reception totals for the past three years were:

2019: 104

2018: 115

2017: 96

 In the recent past, Hopkins has been a rock solid first-round pick, even going in the top five of many competitive drafts. Hopkins’ 2020 ADP of 15th overall, a 2nd round pick in 12 team leagues, reflects the uncertainty around him. The sportsbook reception total is accounting for Hopkins’ new set of circumstances in 2020 and he looks fairly priced as a high second-round pick for fantasy. Hopkins still has the skills and circumstances to be a top-five WR, but there is added risk in 2020 due to uncertainty. That risk is reflected in his lower-than-expected sportsbook reception projection. 

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