Rookie Superflex Mock Draft: RosterWatch vs RotoUnderworld
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky
RosterWatch Nation and our friends at RotoUnderworld squared off in a second friendly and spirited rookie superflex mock draft competition. This exercise helps educate our loyal members about the 2021 rookie class; providing player evaluation and strategy perspective from the 12 participants in this draft.
The complete linear (non-snake) draft order:
- Ani Sridhar (RosterWatch)
- Cody Wilhelm (UnderWorld)
- Neil Dutton (UnderWorld)
- Ray Marzarella (UnderWorld)
- Alex Dunlap (RosterWatch)
- Nate Liss (UnderWorld)
- Shane Seeley (RosterWatch)
- Trashman (RosterWatch)
- Alan Seslowsky (RosterWatch)
- Podfather (UnderWorld)
- Byron Lambert ((RosterWatch)
- Corbin Young (UnderWorld)
QBs: Superflex (Two QBs startable)
The full 5 round rookie mock draft results:
Round One Takeaways:
- An eye-popping five QBs go off the board
- As the QBs get pushed up, elite WRs/RBs are available late in the round
- Round one worthy talent gets pushed out of the top 12
- There are no bad draft slots in a Superflex first round. You will get a player you like
- Tier One is nine players deep in Superflex rookie drafts
Round One Summary
We expect Trevor Lawrence to be the first pick in any competitive Superflex rookie draft. Team RosterWatch’s Ani Sridhar made the “right” pick. T-Law is as clean of a prospect as we have ever seen. Not only does he have a massive upside, but he also has a safe floor. If you own the first overall pick in your Superflex rookie draft and aren’t convinced Lawrence is the pick, you should get a nice return and consider trading out.
The second and third picks (Team UnderWorld Cody Wilhelm and Neil Dutton) both went RB. Najee Harris and Travis Etienne are considered top three RBs in this class. We would not call them bad picks, but in a Superflex draft, it is optimal to draft QBs that land in the top 10 overall real NFL draft. In 2020 Jonathan Taylor and CEH were both going ahead of Justin Herbert. Herbert had top-six draft capital. Drafters of Taylor are happy with the pick, but Herbert is the player with more Superflex fantasy value today.
Underworld’s Ray Marzarella “stole” Justin Fields with the fourth pick. Even if you are not pro-Fields, 1.4 represents value for whoever the QB2 in this class is on your board.
RosterWatch co-founder, Alex Dunlap, could not refuse a young elite WR prospect like Ja’Marr Chase at 1.5. Locking in a 21-year-old elite WR is a sharp proven strategy in dynasty. Getting the WR1 at pick five illustrates how middle of the road teams that have a mid-round pick can get a supercharged boost to their roster.
Underworld’s Nate Liss lands his man in QB Trey Lance at pick six. Liss is on record advocating for Lance’s extreme high upside. Lance carries more risk than some of the other QBs, but he has the highest ceiling based on the dual-threat skills he displayed in his short career. Lance only threw 30 passes in 2020, but his 2019 resume and highlight tape are enough to get excited about.
Shane Seeley of RosterWatch Nation landed on North Carolina RB JaVonte Williams at 1.7. Williams represents the last RB in the top tier. A surefire top 4 pick in one QB leagues, you will feel great about your team should you land Williams this late.
RosterWatch fan favorite and senior analyst, The Trashman, lands one of his highest WR prospects of the last few years at pick eight. Jaylen Waddle has the look and feel of a player you will be able to start on your fantasy team in short order.
Zach Wilson at pick nine in a rookie Superflex draft is going to stand out if Wilson is the QB2 in this class. RosterWatch analyst, Alan Seslowsky, may have struck gold.
The Podfather (UnderWorld’s Carnival Barker) wisely selects the last of the “big five” QBs at pick 10. There is a case for Mac Jones going in the top five picks of a rookie Superflex draft. He is a mortal lock for fantasy value. Low risk with upside.
RosterWatch co-founder, Byron Lambert, gets the most interesting prospect in round one. Kyle Pitts is getting rightfully hyped as the best TE prospect of all time. The floor is secure to warrant Pitts as a first-round dynasty rookie pick.
Team UnderWorld’s Corbin Young drafts Rashad Bateman at 1.12. Corbin elects to pass on Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith. Corbin chose the safety of Bateman’s profile vs the outlier that would be Smith, given his 170lb frame.
Round Two Takeaways:
- Devonta Smith is a 1st round talent available in round two
- The next tier break is at 2.8
- RBs depth is shallow in 2021
- Trade opportunity in mid-round two
Round Two Summary
2021 is a great year to have 2nd round Superflex picks, although there is a distinct falloff at pick 2.04. However, the secondary WR depth is incredible. There are players projected to go in the first round of the real NFL draft available to take in the middle of the second round of your rookie draft. Trading out of 1.12 to get two mid-round 2nds is a sharp play. If someone in your league gets fixed on a non-QB at 1.12, there is value to be had. If one of the big five QBs falls to 12, do not trade the pick.
Byron Lambert jumps up to take Auburn WR Seth Williams, who was a late fourth-round pick in our first rookie mock draft exercise. As usual, Byron must know something that the rest of the fantasy industry will find out a few weeks from now.
Round Three Takeaways:
- Two TEs are in a clear tier two
- An upside QB falls
- WR depth spills over into the third
Round Three Summary
Round three of most fantasy rookie drafts are uninspiring dart throws. The excitement and depth of the 2021 class continues on throughout the whole third round.
Team Underworld’s Nate Liss and The Podfather scoop up Tight Ends Pat Freiermuth (3.6) and Brevan Jordan(3.10). Both look like players that can become productive in the NFL. They are the clear next two TEs and are worth a third-round pick.
RosterWatch’s Alex Dunlap caught the room sleeping and drafted Texas A&M’s upside QB, Kellen Mond. A player with Mond’s electric playmaking ability should never fall into the third round of a Superflex draft.
Byron Lambert of team RosterWatch corrects a mistake from our first rookie mock; securing Michigan WR Nico Collins with a late third-round pick. Collins is a borderline pre-draft top 10 WR.
Round Four & Five Takeaways:
- RB Jaret Patterson is polarizing
- Rhamondre vs Roundtree RB debate
- Sleeper Alert: Florida WR Trevon Grimes
Round Four & Five Summary
Though it is difficult to predict which players drafted in rounds four and five of your rookie drafts will pan out, keep in mind a couple of them will. Do not fall into the trap of wasting these picks. In 2020 James Robinson, Harrison Bryant, Qunitez Cephus, and Donavan Peoples-Jones were all fifth-round rookie picks. All of those players are not only worth rostering in dynasty, James Robinson was a top five RB!
RB Jarett Patterson had an eight TD game this season! However, he is a 5’6” player who doesn’t project to have significant draft capital. In the fourth round of your rookie Superflex draft, he is certainly worth a gamble.
During the draft, there was a spirited debate about who is the better fantasy prospect between RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Larry Rountree. Both are likely to be situational NFL starters with fourth-round draft capital. The argument for Rhamondre is his massive 230 lbs frame and willingness to lower his shoulder pads. Rountree is a more complete runner who shows a burst through the hole and runs with authority.
UnderWorld’s Nate Liss put the draft room on high sleeper alert taking Florida WR Trevon Grimes. At 6’3″ and 220lbs if Grimes tests well, his stock will soar, but he was a non-factor in Senior Bowl practices.
In conclusion, our second rookie mock draft exercise was a success. Performing a mock draft in March with knowledgeable competitors is a great way to gauge our evaluations versus the market ADPs. We rightly will change our perspectives after the NFL draft. At times we can distort our baseline evaluations of these players to a fault. No better example than AJ Brown in 2019. AJ Brown was the WR1 on many draft boards throughout the fantasy industry. Sharp analysts dropped him as low as WR10 due to perceived poor landing spots. Talent will usually rise to the top.
Comment below who you believe made the best picks of this draft.