RosterWatch Podcast Episode 821 – The 2nd RosterWatch Big Fantasy Draft Show
Alex Dunlap and Trashman are joined by Matty Kiwoom and Byron Lambert to give you all the last-minute information you need to dominate your fantasy football drafts as well as get boots-on-the-ground updates from Patriots, Commanders, Jaguars, Dolphins, Titans and Buccaneers camps.
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So I put all of the pre draft Strength of schedule and OL ranking tools from the pro members page into the A.I system and had it combine everything in to one message and system. This is what it spit out. It’s not basing off of actual players, this is purely information based off of the sheets. You can verify it to see if its legit but I think its pretty accurate and I’ll use it to help me draft along side the Cheat Sheet
1. Full Team Alignment (multiple positions strong)
• Seattle → QB TOTAL +9; QB Playoffs +4; WR TOTAL +8; WR Playoffs +1; RB TOTAL +5; RB Playoffs 0; TE TOTAL +2; TE Playoffs +2.
QB + WR align with playoff upside, RB neutral, TE steady. Passing stack is elite.
• Carolina → QB TOTAL +9; QB Playoffs +1; WR TOTAL +10; WR Playoffs +1; RB TOTAL +6; RB Playoffs -1; TE TOTAL +3; TE Playoffs +1.
All positions positive. Balanced offense with no glaring holes.
• San Francisco → RB TOTAL +9; RB Playoffs +4; QB TOTAL +5; QB Playoffs -1; WR TOTAL +6; WR Playoffs -3; TE TOTAL -2; TE Playoffs +2.
RBs are the clear driver; QB/WR neutral; TE sneaky playoff bump.
• Philadelphia → QB TOTAL +4; QB Playoffs +2; WR TOTAL +5; WR Playoffs +1; TE TOTAL -4; TE Playoffs +5.
High implied scoring team; WR + TE both get playoff boosts.
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2. Strong Single-Position Anchors
• RB-Driven:
• New Orleans → RB TOTAL +6; RB Playoffs +5.
• New York Jets → RB TOTAL 0; RB Playoffs +5.
• Las Vegas → RB TOTAL +5; RB Playoffs -1.
→ RBs from these teams have schedules that stand apart from the rest of the roster.
• WR-Driven:
• Chicago → WR TOTAL +8; WR Playoffs +1 vs QB TOTAL +2; QB Playoffs -3.
• Detroit → WR TOTAL +3; WR Playoffs +4 vs RB TOTAL -8; RB Playoffs -5.
• Houston → WR TOTAL +1; WR Playoffs +3 vs RB neutral.
→ Passing games here are stronger than the run game.
• TE-Driven:
• Atlanta → TE TOTAL +11; TE Playoffs -2.
• Los Angeles Chargers → TE TOTAL +8; TE Playoffs +2.
• New York Jets → TE TOTAL +7; TE Playoffs +4.
→ These teams have tight end schedules that are materially better than their other positions.
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3. Playoff Landmines vs. Playoff Boosts
• Playoff Landmines (avoid leaning too heavily):
• Detroit RBs → TOTAL -8; Playoffs -5.
• Buffalo QBs → TOTAL -4; Playoffs -5.
• Green Bay WRs → TOTAL -5; Playoffs -6.
• Pittsburgh RBs → TOTAL -5; Playoffs -4.
→ Draftable during the year, but don’t rely on them to carry Weeks 15–17.
• Playoff Boosts (great for depth / league-winning upside):
• Tampa Bay → QB Playoffs +5; WR Playoffs +3.
• New York Jets → RB Playoffs +5; TE Playoffs +4.
• Philadelphia → TE Playoffs +5.
• San Francisco → RB Playoffs +4.
→ Stash pieces from these teams if you want playoff insurance.
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4. Clear Misalignments (positional tug-of-war)
• Detroit → WRs boosted (TOTAL +3, Playoffs +4), RBs crushed (TOTAL -8, Playoffs -5).
• Chicago → WRs strong (TOTAL +8, Playoffs +1), QB weak (TOTAL +2, Playoffs -3).
• Minnesota → OL elite (4.28), RB neutral (0, Playoffs +1), but TE worst in NFL (TOTAL -15, Playoffs -4).
• Green Bay → RB neutral, but QB/WR/TE all negative (QB -4; WR -5; TE -9).
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1. Macro Environment vs. Implied Totals
Teams with strong environments and high scoring (25+ PPG):
• Detroit → Environment +4; AvgITT 25.3 → Dome-heavy, elite scoring projection.
• Kansas City → Environment -19; AvgITT 25.0 → High scoring, but outdoors/late season weather hurts efficiency.
• Philadelphia → Environment -14; AvgITT 25.0 → High-scoring, but outdoors schedule; WR/TE playoff boosts matter.
Teams with bad environments and low scoring (red flags):
• Cleveland → Environment -17; AvgITT 18.6.
• New York Giants → Environment -11; AvgITT 19.4.
• New Orleans → Environment -1; AvgITT 19.3.
→ Low ceilings; depth-only.
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2. Offensive Line vs. RB Strength of Schedule
Elite OL + favorable RB SoS:
• San Francisco → OL 3.81; RB TOTAL +9; RB Playoffs +4.
• Minnesota → OL 4.28; RB TOTAL 0; RB Playoffs +1.
• Detroit → OL 4.19; RB TOTAL -8; RB Playoffs -5.
Bad OL + bad RB SoS:
• Houston → OL 3.02; RB TOTAL 0; RB Playoffs +2.
• New York Giants → OL 3.54; RB TOTAL -1; RB Playoffs 0.
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3. QB vs. WR Alignment
When QB and WR align (both easy):
• Seattle → QB TOTAL +9; QB Playoffs +4; WR TOTAL +8; WR Playoffs +1.
• Carolina → QB TOTAL +9; QB Playoffs +1; WR TOTAL +10; WR Playoffs +1.
• Atlanta → QB TOTAL +8; QB Playoffs +2; WR TOTAL 0; WR Playoffs +2; TE TOTAL +11.
Mismatched:
• Chicago → QB TOTAL +2; QB Playoffs -3; WR TOTAL +8; WR Playoffs +1.
• Tampa Bay → QB TOTAL +3; QB Playoffs +5; WR TOTAL +1; WR Playoffs +3; TE TOTAL +1.
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4. Tight End Correlations
Elite TE schedules:
• Atlanta → TE TOTAL +11; QB TOTAL +8.
• New York Jets → TE TOTAL +7; TE Playoffs +4; WR TOTAL +5; QB TOTAL +5.
• Philadelphia → TE TOTAL -4; TE Playoffs +5; WR TOTAL +5; QB TOTAL +4.
Landmines:
• Green Bay → TE TOTAL -9; WR TOTAL -5; QB TOTAL -4; RB TOTAL +1.
• Minnesota → TE TOTAL -15; WR TOTAL -3; RB TOTAL 0.
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Draft Guidelines
Priority Offenses (multi-tool alignment)
• San Francisco → RBs elite (RB TOTAL +9, RB Playoffs +4); other positions viable.
• Seattle → QB + WR aligned with playoff upside (QB Playoffs +4, WR Playoffs +1).
• Detroit → Elite scoring; WR playoff boost (+4); RBs risky (RB Playoffs -5).
• Carolina → All positions positive (QB +9, RB +6, WR +10, TE +3).
• Baltimore → High ITT (26.5); balanced, TE strong (+6).
• Philadelphia → High ITT (25.0); WR/TE playoff boosts (+5).
Caution / Fade Teams
• Cleveland, New Orleans, New York Giants → Low ITT, weak OL, poor SoS.
• Green Bay → QB (-4), WR (-5), TE (-9). Passing game dead.
• Minnesota (TEs) → Worst TE SoS (-15) despite OL.
• Detroit (RBs) → RB playoff landmine (-5).
Tie-Breaker Logic
• Quarterbacks: Favor Seattle (QB +9, Playoffs +4), Carolina (QB +9, Playoffs +1), Atlanta (QB +8, Playoffs +2).
• Running Backs: Favor San Francisco (RB +9, Playoffs +4), New Orleans (RB +6, Playoffs +5), Carolina (RB +6, Playoffs -1).
• Wide Receivers: Favor Carolina (WR +10, Playoffs +1), Chicago (WR +8, Playoffs +1), Seattle (WR +8, Playoffs +1).
• Tight Ends: Favor Atlanta (TE +11), Chargers (TE +8), Jets (TE +7, Playoffs +4), Philadelphia (TE Playoffs +5).
WHOA
I have a keeper question – .5ppr, 9 teams – i pick 4th. — Keep James Cook in the third or Kamara in the 4th.
Thanks
this is related to the keeper Q. — ran a mock draft – so in third round – i could choose Hampton, Cook or henderson – none of these three were there for the 4th pick (nor was Kamara; taken just before my pick)
So Question — who would you rather have in 1/2 ppr – Hampton, Cook or Henderson _ thanks
Henderson for me
12 team .5 ppr 1 keeper
Who do I keep?
Ja’Marr Chase— 1st round (12th pick)
Malik Nabers—- 4th round
Trey McBride— 5th round
Jayden Daniels— 7th Round
Chase Brown— 8th Round
Wow, this is a great one!! I’ll give the 1.12 for Chase any day – just a touch ahead of Nabers!
Here is the draft from Saturday in a 0.5PPR 12 team league. How’d we do?
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: chase brown, Treveyon Henderson, breece hall, Jaylen Warren, ollie Gordon, woody marks
WR: ceedee lamb, terry McLaren, Calvin Ridley, Matthew golden, Luther burden
TE: Mark Andrews, Kyle pitts
great job
Hello RW, it’s that time again. Thank you guys..
Now someone just offered me the following trade, full PPR
Ladd for Pollard. My team: Murray, Bijan, Chase Brown, Bisby, Ollie G, Of Hampton, M Evans, Tet Mc , Downs, Addison, Rice, Shakur, Downs, McBride.
What do you think about the trade and how do you like my draft 🙂