RosterWatch Projected Individual WR vs. CB Cumulative Matchup Rankings

alex bylineThis tool is useful for identifying what receivers may benefit the most from facing the worst cornerbacks in projected individual matchups (as opposed to the unit matchups highlighted in the other tools) and who may have trouble with a schedule featuring more talented corners in coverage.

Click here to go to your downloads section and download the tool.

For information on how to interpret and use the tool, read on:

The individual matchup projections are made based on information about where certain receivers usually line up (outside vs. slot, etc.) and the star-coverage or “shadow” tendencies of the best opposing corners’ defensive schemes. Projecting these matchups so far out is an inexact science to say the least, but we should be able to get more right than we get wrong. Often times, the receivers in question will only see the corner we’re projecting the matchup to be against for little more than a majority plurality of their snaps, other times, they’ll be shadowed. Furthermore, Jalen Ramsey could blow an ACL in Week 1 and no one will face him all year. (Not that we want to jinx Ramsey).

With this said, those WRs with excellent or horrible-looking schedules in the sheet are players you’ll want to take note of and keep in the back of your mind when thinking about how you’ll attack your fantasy draft.

Always defer to the latest edition of the RosterWatch Ultimate Cheat Sheet for your final decisions in drafts.

You can read the tool like this:

Names in red cells: corners our models project as being the best in coverage (awful matchups)
Names in pink cells: corners our models project as being very good in coverage (bad matchups)
Names in white cells: corners our models project as being average in coverage (neutral matchups)
Names in light blue cells: corners our models project as being below-average in coverage (good matchups)
Names in blue cells: corners our models project as being #bad in coverage (great matchups)

The total number at the end is the cumulative value of all CB grades on the schedule, with the highest graded being the easiest projected players to face and the lower grades being the toughest. Also note that some players will likely face as much of one corner as another in-division when teammates play the same sort of role (think of 2019 Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate who both are likely to play a lot out of the slot), in situations like this, we’ve tried to split the difference with projecting matchups differently from the first to the second division matchup.

*We’ve treated the Chiefs WR corps as if Tyreek Hill is not active.
*If Emmanuel Sanders starts out the season on PUP, you can use his projections for Daesean Hamilton.

6 Comments

  1. Post By Paul Burczyk

    Does this tool get updated each week of the regular season, or is it strictly a drafting tool?

    1. it is a drafting tool, but we will have other types of analysis in-season using these models on the back end.

  2. It mythical, it’s magical!

  3. If you guys have a second, interested in your thoughts on this trade…
    Christian Kirk for 2020 late first(probably 1.11 or 1.12) and a 2021 late 2nd. I’m loving Kirk, but that 2020 late first is calling. What do you say?
    12 team, half point ppr
    I finished 3rd and he finished 2nd. We were both the highest scoring teams in the league(overall)
    My roster
    Qb russ Wilson and wentz
    Rb Kamara, Chubb, Tevin Coleman, d’onte foreman, Ballage, Gus the bus
    Wr Nuk Hopkins, slot locket, Corey davis, Fuller, Coutee, Antonio callaway, Josh Gordon, christian Kirk, Randall Cobb.
    TE Ertz
    Thanks fellas!

  4. Do you offer a more traditional cheat sheet showing the number rankings by position?

    I appreciate what you are trying to do with the Ultimate Cheat Sheet but for the experienced fantasy football players ranking by position is more helpful.

    I tried to cut and past into an excel file but it takes to much time and does not line up correctly.

  5. Someone wants my first round pick. I can keep saquan at the 9 spot in 10 team league. What would be a fair draft swap if I give up my first round pick? Something like I give up 1 and 6 and get their 2 and 3 ?

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