RosterWatch vs RotoUnderworld Rookie Mock Draft 1.0
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

RosterWatch Nation and our friends at RotoUnderworld squared off in a friendly yet spirited rookie mock draft competition. This exercise helps educate our loyal members about the 2021 rookie class; providing player evaluation and strategy perspective from the 12 participants in this draft. The draft order was “randomly” drawn by RotoUnderworld founder “The Podfather,” who coincidentally drew the 1.1.

 

 

The complete linear (non-snake) draft order

1. The Podfather – Underworld
2. Josh Larky – Underworld
3. Alex Dunlap – RosterWatch
4. Byron Lambert – RosterWatch
5. Trashman – RosterWatch
6. Cody Carpentier – Underworld
7. Alan Seslowky – RosterWatch
8. Shane Seeley – RosterWatch
9. Ray Garvin – Underworld
10. Ryan Lopes – Underworld
11. Nate Liss – Underworld
12. Sully from Houston – RosterWatch

Format

PPR: Yes

QBs: Start One (Non-Superflex)

The full 5 round rookie mock draft results:

 

Round One Takeaways: 

• The 2021 class is particularly LOADED with talent. There are no bad draft slots. 
• There is a tier of three players at the top. No consensus 1.1 yet
• Traditionally It is not optimal to take a QB in round one. There was a debate if Trevor Lawrence belongs among the top 12.   

Round One Summary

RotoUnderworld’s The Podfather took Najaee Harris first overall. He did acknowledge on his live stream that Travis Etienne could have more upside. Prior to the 2020 season, the slight concern on Harris was his pass-catching chops. He silenced critics catching 43 passes this year, nearly a 60% increase from 2019. The safety of Harris makes him a rock-solid first overall pick. Josh Larky opted to take LSU WR Jamar Chase at two. Hitting on an elite WR in rookie mocks has proven to have a longer shelf life than the running backs. If you believe Chase’s elite traits and film, project him to a top 12 NFL WR; he is certainly the “right” pick. RosterWatch co-founder Alex Dunlap had the easiest choice in round one, selecting Travis Etienne. Etienne can easily ascend to the top spot in your draft so getting him at three represents value. 

The draft took an interesting turn when RosterWatch co-founder Byron Lambert picked at four. Despite none TE premium settings, Byron stayed true to his talent evaluation and big board, selecting Florida TE Kyle Pitts. Though TEs do not traditionally get selected this high in most years, Pitts is a different species of player. Kyle Pitts is projected as a top 15 real NFL draft pick. With his WR-like skills and projected draft capital, this is a sharp and courageous pick by Byron. 

The Trashman (RosterWatch Sr. Writer) is happy to take Heisman Trophy winner, Devonta Smith at five. Smith is projected by some to get picked as soon as three overall in the real NFL draft. Smith certainly won’t go any later than the middle of the first round. His size of 6’1″ and 175 lbs is giving some pause as to if he can hold up against the physical demands of the NFL. Trashman loves Smith and is not concerned. 

RotoUnderworld’s Cody Carpentier is a sharp model-based evaluator. His evaluation of Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson indicated he should hurdle over ADP, and take Jefferson with the sixth pick. Consensus fantasy dynasty ranks have Jefferson in the 15-20 range. It is an interesting signal we should pay attention to, that Cody is high on Jemar. 

RosterWatch contributor Alan Seslowsky put the room on tilt when he took the consensus number one overall player (real NFL) Trevor Lawrence. The critique is that position scarcity traditionally dictates waiting on QB in “start one” formats. Lawrence is the best QB prospect we have ever seen. Should he pan out and reach his ceiling, Lawrence will be the steal of this draft. In 2019, Kyler Murray had an ADP of 1.8 in one QB leagues. Lawrence projects as a better prospect and is worth consideration in round one. Our competitors at RotoUnderworld disagree as evident by this viral video critiquing Alan’s pick. 

Shane Seeley, representing RosterWatch Nation, enjoyed the chaos of picks 4-7 and gladly sat back to with his feet up and drafted North Carolina RB Javonte Williams, who likely will go as a top 5 rookie pick in most leagues. Shane was cheered by the whole room for stopping the Javonte Williams slide. 

Ray Harvin, Ryan Lopes , and Nate Liss salivated as arguably three of the best four WRs fell into their laps. Ray opted to take Purdue stud pass-catcher Rondale Moore. Lopes got his guy taking Rashod Bateman, the Minnesota WR; While Nate Liss laughed all the way to the bank getting Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is a player that many sharp analysts believe could end up being the best of this impressive class. 

The final pick in round one was made by RosterWatch Nation’s own “Sully from Houston.” Sully decided on LSU’s TD machine Terrace Marshall. Marshall scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons. In any other class Marshall is a top-five rookie dynasty pick. 

 

Round Two Takeaways: 

• There is a hard tier break with the remaining RBs (Hubbard, Gainwell, Hill)
• Wide Receiver depth spills over deep into round two
• The top QBs are worth drafting late in round two

Round Two Summary

Two RBs (Hubbard and Gainwell) go off the board before a rock-solid group of WRs; Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Rodgers, and Dyami Brown. This group of pass catchers is the better talent than the two RBs, but position scarcity drove the picks. There will still be nice WR options available to draters in round three, but the RBs dry up. The Trashman jumped the field to take WR D’Wayne Eskridge out of Western Michigan. The room called the pick a head-scratcher, but RosterWatch Nation knows better than to bet against The Trashman. 

 

Round Three Takeaways: 

• The upside TEs go back to back
• Mac Jones is a third-round steal
• Two Sleeper RBs are drafted
• Kadarius Toney Slips 

Round Three Summary

Round three of most fantasy rookie drafts are uninspiring dart throws. The excitement and depth of the 2021 class marched on throughout the whole third round. RosterWatch’s Byron Lambert was among the pioneers to plant a flag for Alabama QB Mac Jones. Lambert was blown away while scouting Mac Jones at the 2021 Senior Bowl. If your dynasty team needs a QB, it is a savvy strategy to collect RB and WR talent then pounce on Jones in the third. 

Team RosterWatch’s Alex Dunlap displayed rational gameplay not allowing projected NFL second-round pick, Kadarius Toney, to fall. Toney will earn significant draft capital on his speed alone. Not to mention his nearly 1000 yards and 10 TD 2020 season.

Tight Ends In Fantasy Football generally need a few years to reach their potential. Drafting and storing the players that have a chance to pop is crucial to roster building in dynasty fantasy football. Both Pat Freiermuth and Brevan Jordan look like players that can become productive NFL players. 

RotoUnderworld’s Nate Liss lands an upside gem late in round three taking Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Patterson’s 1,072 yards in 6 games stand out. Trashman sniped Michael Carter (RB North Carolina) who is likely not a lead back but could give defenses problems in the right scheme.

 

Round Four & Five Takeaways: 

• WR Nico Collins foolishly ignored
• WR Tutu Atwell is a sleeper
• RB Rakeem Boyd is a classic “off the field” issues & high talent player

Round Four & Five Summary

Though it is difficult to predict which players drafted in rounds four and five of your rookie drafts will pan out, keep in mind a couple of them will. Do not fall into the trap of wasting these picks. In 2020 James Robinson, Harrison Bryant, Qunitez Cephus, and Donavan People Jones were all fifth-round rookie picks. All of those players are not only worth rostering in dynasty, James Robinson was a top-five RB! 

Nico Collins is a top 12 WR on many experienced scouts draft boards. His lack of college production is eerily comparable to his former Michigan teammate Donavan Peoples Jones. Collins fit the cliche “better on Sundays than Saturdays” profile. 

Underworld’s Ray Garvin clicked the “draft” button with urgency when Louisville WR Tutu Atwell was available late in the fourth. He commented that he considered Atwell in the third round. 

Alex Dunlap is known for his track record of identifying talent and undervalued players. Alex’s draft pick of Arkansas RB Rakeem Boyd fits this narrative. Dunlap described this pick as a player with off-field concerns but is a special runner with requisite size. Likely to be a committee-type back in the NFL who can have value should he find his way to becoming a lead runner.

 

 In conclusion, our first rookie mock draft exercise was a success. Performing a mock draft in February with knowledgeable competitors is a great way to gauge our evaluations versus the market ADPs. We rightly change our perspectives after the NFL draft. At times we can distort our baseline evaluations of these players to a fault. No better example than AJ Brown in 2019. AJ Brown was the WR1 on many draft boards throughout the fantasy industry. Many sharp analysts dropped him as low as WR10 due to perceived poor landing spots. Talent will usually rise to the top. 

Comment below who YOU believe are the best picks of this draft.   window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:”rowa”};