PRO RosterWatch Week 11 DraftKings DFS Cheat Sheet and Trend Tool Now Available

Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: DraftKings
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
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The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for DraftKings is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The KingsTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The DraftKings Vegas Props Tool will be out late Saturday evening as always.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the DraftKings Cheat Sheet.

Click here to view the associated DraftKings Trends Tool.

12 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By rw-nfsuW9z9l

    Just popping in to say thanks which ever of you boys told me to play Baldwin over Kelvin last night. May of saved my lil ol team.

  2. ↓ Post By xraytakr

    Half point PPR I have a potential trade for an RB. As of now I have Crowell, Sproles, T Coleman, Howard, and Dixon. I have been offered Hightower for Tate. My other WR are Evans, A Rob, M Thomas, and C Coleman. Or I could give Thomas and get Hightower and Jordan Matthews (not sure who I would drop with this 2 for 1 offer). Or, of course, I can hold what I have. What do you think?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      DONT GIVE UP THOMAS. It’s fine if you want to make the deal giving up to Tate bolster RB depth, your WR depth is fine without him.

      1. ↓ Post By xraytakr

        Would you trade Thomas for Ware? Another guy offered me Prosise for Thomas or Allen. Would you do any of that? Or just stand pat? Thanks for all the help!

      2. ↓ Post By xraytakr

        Or I could do Allen Robinson for Ware……

  3. ↓ Post By Steelnation1825

    .5 ppr. Three different trade options

    1.) Should I trade Devante Booker for Terrance West and Tyrell Williams?
    2.)Booker and Miller for T. West, T. Williams, and Gurley?
    3.)Booker, Miller, and Hopkins for Mccoy, T. Williams, and T. West.

    What would be my best option?

    1. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      don’t think any of those deals are must-takes in a vacuum.

      1. ↓ Post By Steelnation1825

        I have Rivers for QB, David Johnson and Mike Evans. Looking to solidify roster for playoffs. I am 8-2 right now thanks to everything you guys do. Thanks a lot for all the help.

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Agree with Alex- #3 if off my radar completely- depending on how much you need TWill at WR I can live with #1 or #2.

      1. ↓ Post By Steelnation1825

        My other WR/TE option are Olsen, Hopkins, Meredith, Fuller, and Brate. We play 3 flex WR/TE positions with 1 RB/WR/TE flex spot.

        Thanks again for you help.

  4. ↓ Post By Doomsday24

    Will you guys have a draftkings cheatsheet for thursday games? 3 games thur, with 1 tonight, 8 teams playing.

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