PRO RosterWatch Week 14 Fanduel DFS Cheat Sheet Now Available

Week 14 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: Fanduel
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
Follow Mike Band on Twitter

The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for Fanduel is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The DuelTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).

NEW! Check out the BETA version of our professional lineup builder, RosterWatch HyperDFS, also in your downloads section!

As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise.

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The Vegas Tool will be out late Saturday evening as always.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the Fanduel Cheat Sheet.

Click here to view the associated Trend Tool.

21 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By xraytakr

    I can pick up Malcolm Mitchell and/or Taylor Gabriel from waivers in the morning. The question is, who should I drop. I have Cam, Stafford, Howard, Sproles, Dixon, Dion Lewis, Tevin Coleman, Evans, Mike Thomas, A Rob, Tate, Walker, Rudolph, Bengals and Steelers D.

    I know the obvious answer is one of the defenses, but between them I’m pretty set matchup wise for the playoffs. Also, if you would pick up both of those guys off waivers, who else would you drop?

    My opponent played Kelce and Lat Murray, so I have a decent hole to climb out of and i think I need max upside. Thanks guys!

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      if you’re not keen on dropping a defense, i’d go with rudolph or lewis.

      1. ↓ Post By xraytakr

        Would you grab both Mitchell and Gabriel, or just one of them?

        1. ↓ Post By Trashman

          Both if you plan on using them this week. Def Mitchell

          1. Post By xraytakr

            I’m playing Evans, Tate, and Thomas, so I might only need one and that’s if Thomas doesn’t play. Unless you would sit Tate for Mitchell or Gabriel.

          2. Post By Trashman

            if Jones can’t go, Gabriel could go bonkers.

  2. ↓ Post By Rob

    Need 2 RBs and a flex in a half point ppr between Gurley, Martin, Ryan Matthews, Gabriel and Cobb

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      gurley, martin if he goes, gabriel if no jones

  3. ↓ Post By dsingh

    PPR Gresham or Kendricks? Matchup tool suggests gresham

  4. ↓ Post By Shakey

    Here’s a question that might be of interest to many — weather !!! Which positions are effected the most by bad weather such a snow? RBs such as Bell in buffalo ? WRs? Or are kickers. Should I dump Bailey in favor of a warm weather or dome kicker. Love to here you views on this issue. Thanks.

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      Good question. Wind has the biggest effect on game play. Snow and cold weather has a slight effect, about 2% less accuracy in passing and kicking.

  5. ↓ Post By Shakey

    What to do about J Jones? I hate game time decisions. Would you bail out on jones in favor of montcrief or M Thomas? Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      maybe thomas if he’s really good to go. you have to play jones if he goes.

  6. ↓ Post By Shakey

    Another dilemma — I can start either Brees or WInston Sunday. I am leaning towards WInston, since the Bucs have a lot more to play for (in the playoff hunt) and they are home on a 4 game win streak. Also, Winston seems primed for a break-out game. Then again Brees could have a nice bounce-back game. What do you think?

      1. ↓ Post By dsingh

        I dont know if you saw my question on the bottom but really struggling with that question. Am i wording the question wrong? because its been ignored on each page?

  7. ↓ Post By dsingh

    PPR Gresham or Kendricks? Matchup tool suggests gresham

    Also ppr choose 2: lee, parker, ginn, robby anderson, coleman and jac rodgers

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      I’d go Gresham, Ginn, Anderson

  8. ↓ Post By gutsman004

    Are you concerned with the weather in Green Bay at all? I have him in my flex spot currently (PPR) but could use Booker,Wallace,Inman,or Gabriel instead. Honestly going back and forth between Adams and Gabriel. Booker would be in the mix but I don’t like Forsett’s potential involvement.

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      The more I hear about Jones, the more I like Gabriel this week. Jones may be a decoy.

  9. ↓ Post By rw-d3RINpDvv

    Tyrell Williams / Rawls /ingram/devante Adams/or Michael Thomas ?flex ,standard….

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