PRO RosterWatch Week 16 Fanduel DFS Cheat Sheet Now Available

Week 16 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: Fanduel
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
Follow Mike Band on Twitter

The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for Fanduel is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The DuelTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).

screen-shot-2016-12-06-at-6-00-01-pm
NEW! Check out the BETA version of our professional lineup builder, RosterWatch HyperDFS, also in your downloads section!

As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise.

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The Vegas Tool will be out as soon as early Vegas props are available to us. We always recommend using the Vegas tool in conjunction with the cheat sheet and trend tool.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the Fanduel Cheat Sheet.

Click here to view the associated Trend Tool.

14 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Deagsdan

    Made it to the championship with help from RW nation, thank you gentlemen. One last question until dynasty draft season.

    Zeke Virus
    .5ppr
    Need either Devonta sweet son Freeman or Jordan Howard.
    as well as
    Need 2 out of either Larry Fitz, Ty Montgomery or Dougie Fresh Baldwin for Wr.

    Thanks again for another great season and Happy Holidays to all of Roster Watch.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Hate choosing between the favorite children of RWNation. However, the safe bet is JH if you have a gun to our head.

      -TyM for sure- and we think we roll LF.

      Thank you so much for you loyal support Deagsdan. We hope that you and all of yours have a wonderful and safe holiday season.

      From all of us here at RW

      -BL

      1. ↓ Post By Deagsdan

        Thanks Byron. One last question if I may, with the throw a wrench into my plans eagles/giants game; do I roll with Zeke or throw Devonta in and hope it’s enough?

  2. ↓ Post By AbnerLofton

    T will, Britt , or Wallace?

    Standard scoring

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      TWill

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Oh, and Safe and Happy Holidays from all of us at RW- we truly appreciate your loyal (and, maniacal) support.

      -BL

  3. ↓ Post By johnnyG

    Guys would you play both Ben and Antonio or switch to cousins and keep Antonio. Te is Vernon Davis. Basically hedging In case Pittsburg puts up a stinker.
    Thanks rosterwatch

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Prob roll Cousins + AB. Really like VD if Reed is out. Best of luck, and happy holidays from all of us at RW.

      -BL

  4. ↓ Post By Mickey

    Prescott or Bortles? I know it’s a stupid question, but I’m nervous Dak doesn’t play the whole game since they’ve clinched the 1 seed already.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      It’s fine to roll Bortles is you are worried about Dak. He had a monster at TEN earlier this yr. We could also envision a conservative game plan by DAL too keep Daks confidence up. Roll the dice, and feel the cool air whipping through your hair at 100 mph. Best of luck and Merry Xmas (or any other holiday you may be celebrating)!

      -BL

      1. ↓ Post By Mickey

        Thanks a lot BL. Gonna take a chance and see what happens with Bortles. Merry Christmas to you and the guys at RW as well!

  5. ↓ Post By WhoDat35

    Byron,

    Looks like you’re the one grinding it out on the keyboard tonight. I appreciate all that Rosterwatch does.

    Two teams/9-5/9-4 Earthpigs

    14tm 1pt PPR Semi’s

    Kaep
    Cooper
    D Adams
    M Thomas
    J Howard
    J Hill
    Marty Bennett
    Jarvis

    Bench(that I’m even considering, no swindles here)

    Mal Mitchell
    Flacco
    CJF
    T Gabriel
    R Anderson
    Dumpster Dive Farrow

    Would you replace anyone?

    12tm 1pt PPR Week 1 of Championship

    Luck
    Zeke
    Fat Rob
    Ty Will
    Cooks
    M Thomas
    Kelce
    Mal Mitchell
    Ty Montgomery

    Bench(same as above)
    Garcon
    Farrow
    M Wallace
    Rawls

    Would you replace anyone?

    Thanks for all that you do. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours. Let’s bring it home.

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      there’s an argument for rawls over mitchell, but mitchell has the upside.

  6. ↓ Post By WhoDat35

    Trashman? Didn’t expect to see you here!

    I’m assuming you don’t have much of problem anywhere else I’ve submitted?

    I was waivering on the Jarvis and Malcolm in the first league. However, the Junkyard Dog jumped up and bit me last week when he found out I sit him for the first time all season. Cost me that Semi.

Leave a Reply