PRO RosterWatch Week 6 Fanduel DFS Cheat Sheet and Trend Tool Now Available (SAT NIGHT UPDATE)

Week 6 DFS Cheat Sheet and Trends Tool: Fanduel
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
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The epic DFS Cheat Sheet for Fanduel is now available for download to RosterWatch PRO members. In addition to the cheat sheet, pro members also have access to our private “Trends” database (The DuelTool) to dig deeper into the slate and to find players who were left off the sheet. (See link to the private spreadsheet at the bottom of the page to access this week’s trend ratings).

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The DraftKings Vegas Props Tool will be out late Saturday evening as always.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the Fanduel Cheat Sheet.

Click here to view the associated Fandduel Trends Tool.

9 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By AbnerLofton

    Was just offered OBJ for demarco? No go? Is it close?

    Standard scoring, I’m loaded at RB and light at WR

    His other wrs are:cooks, diggs, fuller

    I could throw in hunter Henry to get one of those in the deal as well

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      i’m not trading murray for anything less than brown or jones at wr. if you’re loaded at rb, there are other trades you can make.

    2. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      I might be a sucker, but i would trade Demarco and Hunter Henry for OBJ and BCooks every day of the week.

  2. ↓ Post By team gooch

    Sunday’s forecast in Oakland calling for 70% rain & winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts over 40. Should we look for different options at QB & WR if we own any of the Raiders or Chiefs QBs or Wrs?

    1. ↓ Post By team gooch

      Seeing other reports of rain & only 15 to 25 mph winds so may not be as bad but still a concern

      1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

        Jesus- we hate letting these reports throw out the balance of all the data you have on the week for a swindly last minute roster decision that hurts us badly. More times than not this is an unsuccessful strategy. However, there may be some recency bias with the Redskins / Ravens game last week that truly did seem affected by the wind and weather conditions.

        We need to know what your other options are, and we should wait until we have more precise weather info closer to game time. Have some backup options prepared. Don’t make the move unless the guys you are swapping for are reasonably close in our rankings.

    2. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

      There is a sunday night update being posted as we speak taking into account the weather.

      For season long, we are going to follow the weather closely in the AM to see if Smith, Maclin, etc. still viable.

  3. ↓ Post By rw-RXOoUQROY

    Just joined and looking for some help. I’m hurting and RB and have to choose 2 of these 3 in Standard League. West, Coleman, and DeAndre Washington. All less than ideal. Thanks for any help.

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