The key to your fantasy draft is knowing when to sacrifice value for potential and vice versa. Here I take a look at some of the murkier running games around the league to suss out the guys from crowded backfields who offer the best combination of both.

Bengals: Gio Bernard v. Jeremy Hill: Some may this is not really an argument at all and that Bernard is by far the player to go with here. Hear me out. Hill has been the Bengals’ most impressive back this preseason, enough so that they even cut Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Word out of Cincinnati is that we may be looking at a close- to-even timeshare this season. With Gio’s ADP in the early 2nd round and Hill’s in the 8th or 9th, Hill is the better bet here outside of one-point-plus PPR leagues.

Dolphins: Lamar Miller v. Knowshon Moreno: This is going to be a committee until someone gets hurt, so I have to go with upside here. Miller is the more electrifying player that can do more in open space. Also, fellow backs Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams have closer running styles to Moreno, so they may vie for time at some point. With ADPs three rounds apart, Miller is your horse in this race until a valid argument is given otherwise.

Browns: Ben Tate v. Terrance West: In truth this may soon be more like Tate v. Isaiah Crowell. Crowell has outplayed West this preseason, and it isn’t even close. Still, Cleveland seems set on going with Tate and West to start the season. Because West may not hold onto that number two spot for long, I have to lean Tate here, even though he has never proven himself a good NFL back, has a long injury history and he’s being drafted at least five rounds earlier than West.

Saints: Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson: This is arguably a nightmare and inarguably a three-way time split. I think where you’re going to see the biggest differences in value will be across league types. In PPR leagues, Thomas is the hands down favorite, as he is often among the league-leaders in receptions for backs as he was in 2013 catching 77 balls. In standard leagues, Ingram holds the most value with his 10th to 12th-round ADP and potential to lead Saints backs in TDs. Robinson may be the best value in dynasty leagues, though there is a strong argument for Ingram here too as he’s only 24.

Panthers: Jonathan Stewart v. Deangelo Williams: Stewart has never had a healthy season, but it appears he’s at least going to start the football year off in “the best shape he’s been in since his arrival in the NFL.” History is on Williams’ side though, as he’s been the de-facto lead back in Carolina for years now. It’s really a coin flip outside off PPR leagues where Stewart stands to catch more passes. Their ADPs are two rounds apart with Williams going earlier.

Raiders: Maurice Jones-Drew v. Darren McFadden: Jones-Drew is the clear go-to here even four rounds ahead of McFadden, as he’s the better runner, and he’s actually made it through a whole NFL season before. McFadden will have some good games here and there, but I have no idea when they will be. MJD is at least worth flex consideration every week.

Jets: Chris Johnson v. Chris Ivory: I actually like Johnson a lot this year in an offense that is going to run often, but Ivory is a hard-nosed back who will get plenty of goal-line looks. CJ2K is going at least five rounds earlier than Ivory, and I guess I’ll sum up my feelings like this: If you’re gunning for Johnson, don’t be disappointed at all with having to settle for Ivory. They’ll be close in production.

Bills: C.J. Spiller v. Fred Jackson: Is C.J. Spiller not the most frustrating player in fantasy right now? It’s almost impossible to get a read on his value. The determining factor for me here is the TD discrepancy. Last year, Spiller only played in one fewer game than Jackson, yet had eight fewer TDs on the season. At a whole four rounds later than Spiller, Jackson is my pick here outside of dynasty leagues.

Patriots: Stevan Ridley v. Shane Vereen: In PPR leagues, Vereen is an absolute stud, but cannot be counted on in quite the same way in standard. The attractive aspect of Ridley is that he can be had almost four rounds later than Vereen right now. I still prefer Vereen, as he could be a top five back in PPR leagues.

Lions: Reggie Bush v. Joique Bell: I love Bell as a runner. He would be a terror on a team as the lead back. Bush is still very alive in Detroit though, so they’ll have to share carries pretty evenly this season. Their ADPs are only 5 picks apart, so there’s really no value to be had there. Where Bush might have the upper hand is in trade value. He’s got the bigger name and the higher pedigree, so people might be more willing to bite in trades involving him than Bell.

Steelers: Le’Veon Bell v. LeGarrette Blount: Our own Byron Lambert will tell you Bell and Blount will be in a pretty even timeshare this season, and though I don’t think it will be that close at all, it’s still worth considering. Blount will at least vulture a good number of goal-line carries, and his ADP is almost thirteen rounds later than Bell. Blount’s potential value is extremely high here, and we couldn’t begrudge you for taking an elite receiver or quarterback in Bell’s stead and then drafting Blount in the 13th or 14th round.

Falcons: Steven Jackson v. Devonta Freeman: The issue here is about where you plan to stick either player in your lineup. If you’re looking for a an RB3 or RB2 (I cringe), Jackson is the smart choice outside of dynasty leagues. We don’t know how Freeman will be used yet, so I’d be doing you a disservice to tell you to pick him up and plan to use him every week even though we love Freeman and hate Jackson. Jackson is old, looks like he’s running with a dirty diaper on, and he’s TD allergic, but he’s the starter until further notice. Dimitroff should have been fired long ago.

49ers: Frank Gore v. Carlos Hyde: Again, Gore is the old man in the equation, but he’s still the lead back until he gets injured. Hyde will get a handful of touches every game, but I would stay away this season unless you’re in a dynasty league, or you’re looking to handcuff Gore, which isn’t a bad idea.