Thursday Night Fantasy Preview: Baltimore vs. Cleveland
Mike Loyko, Rosterwatch Director of Scouting

This week’s Thursday night’s game is a showdown between AFC North opponents. The Ravens a fresh off a hard fought win over the Patriots on Sunday Night football and the Browns are coming off a loss to the Buffalo Bills.

This match-up has been one-sided the past few seasons, and could be again this week. The Thursday Night games in week 2 and 3 were major disappointments. The games were blowouts, and featured some very disappointing fantasy performances by key players. Having someone like Jay Cutler produce four fantasy points on Thursday night can end your chances of winning your matchup before the Sunday games even arrive. It’s critical that you make the right choices when deciding who to play and who to sit on Thursday nights games.

Here is my advice.

Who to Start

Ray Rice – An absolute no brainer. Ray Rice is a must start against any defense he is going up against. In this particular matchup he is going up against a Browns defense that has given up 122.7 YPG on the ground. CJ Spiller was on his way to having a monster game before he got injured last Sunday.

It’s been clear that the Ravens are intent on throwing the ball more often this year, and that will have a negative impact on Rice’s value in certain games. I’m not worried that this is one of those games. Keep in mind that if the game becomes a blowout that the Ravens will rest Rice down the strectch. With the way the Ravens have moved the ball and the way they like to get Rice into space, it’s safe to assume he will find the endzone in this game.

Trent Richardson – If I own Richardson I am putting him in my lineup no matter who the opponent is. Richardson is a threat to put up a 25 point game anyweek and by sitting him on your bench you risk missing out on a huge performance. Yes, there will be games like last week where his yards were limited, but T-Rich still found paydirt and touched the ball 18 times.

The Ravens defense has historically been a poor match-up for opposing fantasy running backs, but their defense isn’t what it once was. Through three games in 2012 the Ravens defense is ranked 27th in total defense, which ranks them below the Browns defense. Richardson is the centerpiece of the Browns offense and will put up points based on volume of touches. He has proven he can catch the ball out of the backfield, he will take most of the red zone touches and should be on the field on for all three downs.

In the last two games, Richardson has scored a touchdown and caught a combined 10 balls. What more could you ask for in a fantasy running back? His numbers might not be huge but, he is too good to keep out of your lineup. If you do decide to bench him, you better have a bona-fide RB replacing him, because you will regret it.

Dennis Pitta – Pitta has emerged as the Ravens #2 target in the vertical passing game behind Torrey Smith. I was a big fan of Pitta’s coming out of BYU and I have to admit I had him ranked ahead of Aaron Hernandez (NOT ANYMORE).

Through three games he leads the Ravens in catches with 18 and is sure to build on that total on Thursday. Pitta is a fluid route runner, who can get off press coverage and has very sure hands. The Ravens love to work the seam and middle of the field with Pitta. If the Browns decide to double Torrey Smith over the top it will leave Pitta manned up with a linebacker or safety, a matchup which Pitta has shown the ability to win this season.

Pitta is a low end TE1 right now and a viable starter this week.

Torrey Smith – After two lackluster games to start the 2012 season Torrey Smith broke out in a big way vs. the Patriots hauling in 6 catches for 127 yards and 2 touchdowns. If Joe Haden were not suspended for this game I would feel differently about Smith, but, with Haden sidelined, Smith has to be in your lineup.

Don’t expect Smith to have a large number of catches, he may catch just 2 or 3, but those catches will likely be big ones. Up to this point in his career, Smith has been boom or bust, he will either have a monster game or a game where he is nearly invisible. In the Ravens first game vs. the Bengals Smith caught a 50-yard pass on the first play of the game, only to disappear for the rest of the game.

The Ravens love to just let Smith run vertical routes and eat up coverage, Flacco throws it up to him and lets him go get it. CB Sheldon Brown will likely draw the match up with Haden suspended and I feel very good about Smith winning that matchup the majority of times.

Joe Flacco – Flacco has put up elite QB numbers through three games this season.

He has already thrown the ball 110 times and completed 71 passes. The Ravens have become a pass first offense this year and thrown more balls down the field than any other team I have watched, and that is a huge benefit to Flacco’s fantasy numbers.

The thing that makes the Ravens passing attack so good, (in the NFL and for fantasy owners), is all the different levels of weapons. Flacco loves to go up top and make the big play, usually to Smith of Jones. But, if those plays aren’t there, the Ravens have multiple check-down throws to Rice, Dickson or Pitta that are usually open-and pick up positive yardage.

Flacco will be a steady fantasy QB all year, he may not put up the 30-40 points that a RG3 or Rodgers-type could in a game, but you can guarantee he won’t put up a four point performance like Jay Cutler can. Flacco should have no trouble throwing for 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns against a Browns defense that is sure to key on Ray Rice.

Once again the loss of Joe Haden is huge for this match-up as Flacco can basically sit back their and pick his spots. I feel confident in saying that Flacco will put up at least 20 fantasy points Thursday night.

Baltimore Defense – As I said earlier in this feature, the Ravens defense isn’t nearly as good as they have been in past years.

Terrell Suggs, The reigning DMVP is sidelined for at least another month and their linebackers have become a major liability in pass coverage. Their pass rush has also become almost non-existent minus T-Sizzle, except when they blitz. On Sunday night, we saw the Patriots exploit the Ravens linebackers lack of speed again and again, getting them matched up with smaller and faster receivers.

Against a QB like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, I don’t like the Ravens defense. However, on Thursday night they are going up against a rookie QB, who has shown a penchant for throwing interceptions when rattled. The Browns also have no WR that the Ravens will have to double team or give extra attention to, which will free up more men to stack the box or blitz. The Ravens game plan will be try to shut down Trent Richardson and get after Brandon Weeden, forcing him to make mistakes.

The Browns are one of the lowest scoring teams in the NFL over the last season, which makes this a good matchup for the Ravens based on that fact alone. But, with a rookie QB starting I think you can count on the Ravens creating  a couple turnovers as well.

Who to Sit

Anquan Boldin – As Pitta and Smith’s role  in the offense increases, Anquan Boldin’s decreases. Both players have taken some of the work load from Boldin, but the player who has really diminished his role is Jacoby Jones.

Jones is another speedy deep threat who Joe Flacco looks to when Smith is covered and has take a number of red zone targets from Boldin as well. While Boldin can still put up a big performance he is limited to running underneath stuff, mainly crossing routes. His speed has become a major liability and he has trouble creating separation vs. corners.  Unless you are desperate for WR help, make sure Boldin is one you bench. You can do better.

Any and All Browns Receivers – The Browns don’t even know who their #1 WR is, so how are we supposed to know? There are rumors that Greg Little will be benched because he can’t catch (he really can’t).

Mohammed Massaquoi is the leading receiver up to this point in the season with 9 receptions for 145 yards, but he has has been ruled out of Thursday night’s game with muddles the Browns WR position even more. After Massaquoi you are talking about players like Josh Gordon, Travis Benjamin and Jordan Norwood, none of which have much fantasy value. While Benjamin and Gordon will likely see the bulk of the targets, but I’m not even considering them even in deep leagues.

Browns Defense – The Ravens offense will be able to score points on Thursday night. While the Browns defense has a couple of nice young players like Jabaal Sheard and Atyha Rubin, they are missing too many key pieces to match-up with the Ravens. The only way the Browns can compete is if they stack the box to shut down the run and get pressure on Flacco up this middle via the blitz. That will mean the Browns corners are in man coverage vs the Ravens wideouts and they will have to win their individual battles. I don’t see them being successful doing that.

Sleepers

Bernard Pierce – There is a chance that this game gets out of hand early. With the Ravens on a short week they could choose to rest Ray Rice or limit his carries if this thing gets out of hand (they might do that anyway). Pierce has rotated into the game for 2-3 drives a game thus far and may see an increased workload Thursday. Keep an eye on him.

Jacoby Jones – Jones could be a major sleeper if your in need of a WR, especially if you league awards points for return yards. Jones has given the Ravens another vertical dimension to their passing game and broke off a 41 yard catch vs. the Patriots. With the Browns secondary missing some key pieces, Jones could have a big night.