Aaron Rodgers vs. Vikings secondary

We’re only a few hours away from the Packers playing host to the Vikings on the frozen — probably not frozen yet — tundra of Lambeau Field. Teddy Bridgewater’s a game-time decision, and there’s no way anyone outside of members of the Ponder family are playing Christian Ponder tonight, so let’s focus on Aaron Rodgers.

There’s rain in the forecast, so what does that mean? How will that impact the game?

Conventional wisdom tells us this will be a throwback, 45 rushes-per-team outing.

I don’t think that’ll be he case, especially in regard to the Packers offense.

Sure, there’s an increased chance of dropped passes and the ball slipping out of Aaron Rodgers’ right hand, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Green Bay goes about a relatively normal game-plan after it realizes it can’t run the football nearly as well as it did last season.

Remember, the turf will be just as slippery for Minnesota’s defensive backs as it will be for the Green Bay receivers.

I don’t envision a monster night from Rodgers, but he’ll have to throw it often to keep pace with the Vikings ground attack that should be able to gash the Packers run defense.

Prediction

Aaron Rodgers: 23-for-31, 276, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 1 fumble

 

Austin Davis vs. Eagles secondary

No, you’re probably not starting Austin Davis…yet. However, it’s time to get fully caught up on the former Southern Mississippi walk-on and undrafted free-agent. He’s thrown the football 94 times in 2014 for the Rams, and his Pro Football Focus Accuracy Percentage is a very impressive 78.9, higher than the AP’s of Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning and others.

A quarterback’s accuracy doesn’t get directly get you fantasy points, but the more completed passes, the better.

Davis has actually had laser-like precision down the field, too. According to PFF, he’s completed 7 of his 12 attempts made beyond 20 yards — with one drop — for 219 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Without question, that’s not a large sample size, but Davis appears to be primed for another solid contest against the Eagles secondary.

Philadelphia’s allowing a 93.6 QB rating this season, and it’s surrendered 10 passing touchdowns, the most in football. Even on the road, don’t be stunned when Davis kinda-sorta shreds Chip Kelly’s defenes with an array of quick passes before hitting the big play over the top.

Prediction

Austin Davis: 22-for-34, 240 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

 

DeMarco Murray vs. Texans run defense

I feel the need to talk about the NFL’s leading rusher DeMarco Murray… not to give “start / sit” advice — he’s obviously a must-start every week — but because it’s so refreshing to finally see him get the touches he’s always deserved behind a sound offense line.

With Houston coming to town this week, it means Dallas’ front has the amazingly difficult task of stopping J.J. Watt, who, to me, is the NFL MVP season at the quarter pole. Yes, Philip Rivers has been really good, but Watt has truly been more valuable than anyone.

Anyway, despite Watt’s destructive tendencies, the Texans defense has actually been quite porous against the run. It’s 26th in yards allowed per carry at a robust 5.0.

Truthfully, outside of Watt, Houston’s defensive isn’t very special at all.

Expect Dallas to continue to highlight its strength, which believe it or not, is it’s run game and the thunderous scampering of Murray. At home, the former Oklahoma Sooner should have another effective afternoon.

 

Prediction

DeMarco Murray: 19 carries, 124 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 35 yards

 

A.J. Green vs. Patriots secondary

The fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft has been one of the most consistent fantasy performers during his NFL career, and this year’s been no different…well, besides the goose egg he put up in Week 2’s game against the Falcons after he suffered a foot injury early.

Green reeled in nine grabs for 102 yards against an “ehhh” Titans secondary in Week 3, and coming off the bye he’ll get Darrelle Revis at home on Sunday. I wanted to touch on this matchup because New England gets back the quite large Brandon Browner, and it’ll be interesting to see if he covers Green on a handful of occasions.

Stunningly, Revis has been average through four games.

PFF has him graded as the 39th-best cornerback out of exactly 100 cornerbacks who’ve played at least 25 percent of their respective team’s snaps in 2014.

At home, don’t over think with A.J.

He’s a sure-fire WR 1 every time he steps onto the field, and the former Georgia Bulldog averages nine targets per game on the year.

 

Prediction

A.J. Green: 7 catches, 89 yards, 1 TD