Uncertainty vs. Continuity: Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson
Uncertainty vs Continuity: Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and Chris Carson
by Alan Seslowsky
There is an abundance of uncertainty in most fantasy football seasons. In 2020, we have to deal with the added unknowns like Covid-19, no preseason games, and only 14 padded practices with limited reporting. It seems prudent to draft players who have proven resumes and continuity as much as we can. There are players we want to take a chance on, but we may be flying blind this season. You will have to make a decision about how much risk you are willing to take on. Below are a few players that encompass both uncertainty or continuity.
Miles Sanders– Should he be a first-round pick?
RosterWatch has been participating in offseason drafts since late February. Miles Sanders has seen an upward rise in ADP during that time. He started off getting drafted on the 2/3 turn (ADP25.) He then moved solidly into the middle of round two, and eventually into round one as the news kept getting better for him. Sanders is more of a projection rather than a player with long track record. Fantasy players have been excited about him around pick seven in drafts. News then broke that Sanders has a “lower-body injury,” so, now drafters are left scratching their heads. We expect Sanders ADP to drop slightly, but the first round is loaded with healthy options with proven track records.
Josh Jacobs– Continuity Is King
Let’s not overcomplicate the case for Josh Jacobs. Fantasy football success comes from two main valves; talent and opportunity. A third pillar is team continuity. Josh Jacobs has all three. His ADP of 21 is puzzling when you compare it to a player like Miles Sanders (ADP9) or even Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP8). Those who argue against Jacobs as a first-round pick point to his disappointing 20 receptions in 2019. Jacobs has recently spoken out about his desire to catch 60 passes. Logic dictates that just by saying it, doesn’t make it actionable. RosterWatch co-founder, Byron Lambert, reported that the Raiders plan to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game with a plan they referred to as “phase two.” This year, RosterWatch encourages our readers to prioritize continuity. Both Jacobs and the Raiders offensive line are good examples of it. Jacobs needs to be considered as a late first or early second-round pick if you are not comfortable with the risk of players going ahead of Jacobs.
Chris Carson is going too late
Chris Carson is currently getting drafted 32nd overall, the end of the 3rd round, in most 12 team leagues. On the RosterWatch podcast #275 that featured Mathew Berry of ESPN, Berry expressed disbelief at how under-priced Carson is. Berry went on to tell RosterWatch co-founder, Alex Dunlap, that Carson belongs squarely in round two. Taking into account what we have discussed in this article, Carson checks the boxes of what we are looking for in drafts this season. He is the starting RB, with the same team, system, and coach. Carson also is mostly unchallenged for snaps. Seattle signed Carlos Hyde, who was useful for fantasy last year in Houston, but it is likely just depth with Rashaad Penny‘s week one status in question. Mathew Berry pointed out that Chris Carson was one of only two RBs that totaled 1,100 rushing yards and 9 TDs over the last two seasons. Zeek Elliot is the other.
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I’m curious why Rosterwatch is still so high on Cooper Kupp this year. I have been as well for the same reasons – Cooks is gone, Woods has tough CB matchups, running game is questionable with Gurley leaving and a bad OL. I want to believe, I’ve had him as my #11 WR up to this point. However, Jourdan Rodrigue is hinting that the Rams are picking up where they left off, which seems to imply lots of 12 personnel. I feel like i need to drop him down in my rankings. Your insight is appreciated!
Snodawg:
All good points. I will be curious what Alex/Byron/Trash say too, but as we know RosterWatch identified Kupp going back to the Senoir Bowl his rookie year. Nobody was higher on Kupp then the guys. Every year his ADP an obvious bargain for those who love Kupp. 2020, you have to pay full retail. He is going on the 3/4 turn.
Coming off a 2018 ACL, Kupp was getting ignored by many (self-included) but came out on fire. Kupp did finish strong for fantasy but was bailed out by TDs. His target volume was more or less cut in half. Kupp is in a contract year and it is unlikely the Rams in their current state can afford to pay Kupp what the market will offer. Kupp is a $12 mil per year player, maybe more.
No denying Kupp is a RedZone wizard and can pay off, but I think the market is addicted to the discount they have been getting on Kupp through the years. If you want him in 2020, its time to crack open the piggy bank.
More fuel on that fire, check out her article at The Athletic today 8/24
Will do my brother.
Cheatsheet Question: In an IDP league that has QB, RB, WR, TE, 2 FLEX, K and 3 DL, 4LB, 4DB — what does this do to the rankings, especially QB and TE, If you only have to start 1 RB or 1 WR and can mix and match the flex btw RB, WR and TE, would that bump up the TEs? And QB too as you don’t need as many RBs and WRs? If so how much? Is it crazy to draft Mahomes or Kelce at 13 in a 12 team with this set-up?
Hi Paul:
That is an interesting setup. I’m not deep into the IDP, so I will be curious to what Byron/Alex/Trash might say, but just trying to take a 10,000 foot view, if it Is a point per tackle league those LBs get a nice bump. As to your question about taking Mahomes early; I think in these funky formats where the RB/WR position is less scarce getting the most fantasy points regardless of position is optimal. Mahomes very defensible at the turn. Still not sure I’d do it, but I can see that working out just fine.