UnderDog Risers and Fallers 5/25/22

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RISERS

Jalen Tolbert, WR COWBOYS – As OTAs are ramping up for the Cowboys, it feels like people are just starting to remember that Michael Gallup did, in fact, tear his ACL last year and will not be cleared to take part. We’d expect to see the same realization come to pass for players like Chris Godwin, Jameson Williams and others who fantasy managers may be intrigued by, but who have a legitimate chance of starting the season slow, or even worse, on the PUP list. Tolbert was a member of the RosterWatch All-Senior Bowl Roster from the 2022 week of practices and was arguably the top receiver in attendance, his only real competition for the title being Christian Watson, who was taken in the second round by the 49ers. Tolbert, himself, comes to the Cowboys with Day 2 draft capital and only James Washington as a viable threat for the the No.2 WR chair should Gallup not get up to speed by training camp. Furthermore, Tolbert might just be better than Gallup, anyway. We’ve been high on Tolbert since v1.0 of the UnderDog Best Ball Cheat Sheet (even pre-NFL draft), but we remain focused on staying ahead of his average draft position to continue ensuring cheap exposure in the double-digit rounds. People are catching on, though, as he’s risen almost a full round over the previous week from an early 14th-rounder to an early 13th rounder.

Leonard Fournette, RB BUCS – In the “good old days” of super-early 2022 best-ball action — before we knew that Tom Brady would be returning to the Bucs, and before Fournette signed his new deal with the team, we were thrilled to be landing Super Bowl Lenny at an ADP of 78.4 (in the mid-7th round)!!! By the time UnderDog ADP shifted to only accounting for the post-NFL draft ADP of players, Fournette’s draft position had risen precipitously, all the way to pick 26. Currently, Fournette has settled in as a player who is not really moving much from an ADP right at 23 or so, making him an absolute slam of a pick at the 2/3 turn. It’s actually not high enough, though. We’re aggressively pricing in Fournette with a higher value to stay ahead of the ADP and ensure some exposure. Fournette has zero competition for touches with the loss of Ronald Jones as Tom Brady doesn’t seem to trust Ke’Shawn Vaughn and it’s hard to see him trusting an inexperienced rookie like Rachaad White in pass pro the same way he truly trusts Lenny. Gio Bernard is still on the roster, but the soon-to-be 31 year-old’s presence is nothing that anyone should be worried about. Fournette was RB7 last season in half-PPR formats per-game, was third in the league in red-zone RB touches and was third in the league in RB targets behind only Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris despite playing only 14 games. He’s currently going off the board as the RB13 when his situation has only gotten better with no Ronald Jones and extra targets opening up to start the season as Chris Godwin gets back up to speed?! We’re going to stay high on him until there is a rational reason not to.

FALLERS

Antonio Gibson, RB COMMANDERS – It’s wild to see Gibson falling to the 6th round of current Underdog drafts, but things are not falling in the right way for him as we round into the early beginnings of fantasy draft season. As things stand, there is a group of about 17 RBs that go off the board as drafters try to find an “anchor” RB to build around, and Gibson is not one of them. In fact, he’s consistently going after players who have similar question marks (JK Dobbins – coming off injury and part of a giant committee; Breece Hall – a rookie who will likely also start the season in a committee with Michael Carter; Travis Etienne – coming off a scary lisfranc injury and basically a redshirt rookie in an offense that we can’t really trust, etc.). Even though we don’t hate getting Gibson if the value presents itself, some signs are troubling and we’re not getting out over our skis at this time to exploit his ADP fall with every chance we get. The Commanders did go out of their way to woo Jd Mckissic back to town after he’d accepted a deal in principle from the Bills and we know that JDM is capable of really kicking his committee-mate in the nuts when it comes to hogging pass-catching opportunities. Furthermore, Washington also selected Brian Robinson out of Alabama in the draft and recent reports have indicated he could be featured at the goal line. Indeed, ESPN’s John Keim has written just this week that Gibson should still get good usage on the whole, but that his role from week-to-week is “likely to vary”. While this bothers us more for traditional redraft than it does in best ball — since in best ball, we don’t have to make weekly start/sit decisions — it is still an additional small warning sign we’re taking heed of as they continue to add up.