Undervalued Veterans in Early Bestball Drafts
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

RosterWatch’s signature offseason tool, The Best Ball Cheat Sheet, is LIVE! RosterWatch Nation’s biggest edge in drafts has long been using the “Cheat Sheet,” as leverage against ADP. Traditional rankings are often an analyst’s view of the market but don’t take into account where the players are getting drafted. The most up-to-date version of the BBCS is a living breathing magical piece of paper that guides you through your early bestball drafts.

This column and video identify three veteran players with proven track records that are currently being undervalued in early bestball drafts.

 

Michael Thomas: WR, Saints  (ADP26, WR10)

Michael Thomas’ current ADP is 26th overall. He is the WR10 in early bestball drafts. Last year at this time MT’s ADP was 5th overall, WR1. The early draft market is choosing to value Thomas’s most recent season over the previous four, where Michael Thomas averaged nearly 120 receptions and 1,400 yards a year (download fantasy football stats). Recency bias is a powerful force, as evident by drafters weighing 2020 as significant vs just an outlier season. Thomas is in the prime of his career at age 28, and presumably was battling through injuries last year. The assumption of Drew Brees’ retirement is also weighing down Thomas’ ADP.  

The Vegas odds are trending toward Jameis Winston making a week one start for the Saints. We already saw the fantasy upside of WRs linked to Winston. Winston’s primary target, Chris Godwin, finished 2019 as the WR3 overall. The bestball market is also concerned about Thomas’ upside if Taysom Hill wins the starting QB job for New Orleans. During the four-week span in 2020 when Hill was under center, Michael Thomas still averaged over 17 PPR fantasy points a game; including 2 x 20+ point games. If you are drafting in the top three spots in early bestball drafts; decide to go RB-RB, you are getting a top 12 overall player in the third round. Michael Thomas is severely underpriced. 

 

Jarvis Landry WR, Browns (ADP 103, WR40)

Jarvis Landry should be the cover photo for any undervalued articles. Even during his peak in Miami, when he was a locked-in WR1 in PPR leagues, Jarvis would routinely have a late third-round ADP. Though Landry is no longer a 100 catch and 1,100-yard player, he can conservatively be projected for 75 receptions, 850 yards, and 4 TDs. Jarvis still has weekly upside as evident by his weeks 12-15 production in 2020. During that important stretch leading into and through the fantasy playoffs, Landry finished as the WR9 overall. His current price of WR40 signals that Landry once again is an undervalued veteran rock, that you should proactively draft in accordance with the RosterWatch bestball cheat sheet. 

 

Gus Edwards RB, Ravens (ADP 139, RB44)

Gus Edwards is a restricted free agent this year. He will almost certainly be with the Ravens in 2021 as evident by this quote from team GM Eric DeCosta.

“Gus is going to be on the team, one way or the other,” DeCosta said Tuesday. “We’re going to certainly tender him if we don’t get a long-term deal done, but he is a Raven. He played his butt off this year, and he had a good season for us.”

The Ravens released Mark Ingram and are likely to focus on other positions in free agency and the NFL draft. Edwards has been mostly a mid to low-end RB3 for fantasy, but there is upside heading into 2021. There is little doubt that JK Dobbins is the RB with the most upside. Add to that, Lamar Jackson is still a run-first QB. Drafters of Edwards are not looking for a league-winning pick. He is a safe, high-floor pick with weekly upside and TD equity. Edwards should flirt with 200 carries and 8 TD this year. That kind of production, given the position scarcity of RB is usually impossible to find in the 11th round. Edwards is a player worth jumping ADP to draft if you took a premium TE or QB in the first half of your draft. He is an undervalued veteran in early bestball drafts.