PRO VEGAS TOOL: Week 15 DraftKings Values Based on Vegas NFL Player Props

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 15 DFS research. We’ve aggregated all the open Week 15 NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring in Week 15.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings pricing as a tool in gauging the value of players while setting our DraftKings lineups.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making sit-start decisions in our season-long leagues.

PLEASE NOTE:

– These are not RW’s Week 15 Rankings. Those are updated through Sunday morning and can be found on the rankings page.

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers put them up through Saturday evenings. We put the tool up once we have at least 4 games or so of props in. Please check back through Saturday evening and Sunday morning leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them early. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. The Week 15 Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic roduction projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

148 Comments

  1. Just saw your tweet . . . moved this here from Trashman’s thread . . .
    Lovin your advice all season. crunch time. Bench Hopkins for Rishard Matthews? would have to drop Dixon or A. Robinson (both on bench anyway and not likely to crack into starting lineup – have McCoy, Murray, Howard, and M. Mitchell on bench, Inman starting now). Thanks!

    1. Yes bench DHop for RM- crazy but we would be sticking our heads in the sand if we didn’t. All you can do is set the best lineup with the information on the season you have- and we have a ton of it by now.

      Hate dropping those guys- but this is must win. Like MM on bench this week and Iman in the lineup. Best of luck, sir

  2. Just got Mike Wallace of waivers, with Rawls already played I need points!!

    Wallace over Edelman?

    Thank you guys!

    1. I would not personally make that move. Trashman and Alex may differ, but you have me in this thread. Esp if this is a ppr. I like Edelman on the Den LBs in this game, and expect Brady to lean on him. God’s Speed- sir

  3. Post By ninerfn49er@aol.com

    Is Watkins correct on your rankings page? #27 standard and #12 PPR?

    1. Just updated our rankings- those ppr ranks sound cockamamie. I like him as an upside WR3 or a desperation WR2. Could be a sneaky week to get him on. Lots of good options out there this week, so make sure and check final rankings in the AM as well as what Vegas is predicting for those in question- in the Vegas flex tool

  4. Need 2 for standard: Rishard Mathews, Alshon Jeffery, Thielen, Lafell.

    Also need 1 for standard: Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel. Need highest upside I’m down 25 in a two wk playoff.

    1. Hate the Alshon ordeal. Would prob roll him and RM if it were my team. Would think long and hard about Thielen over Alshon if I was large-onioned-gambling-man, which now that I think about it I may actually be.

  5. If forte goes, do I need to sit Powell for one of the following? And if so, for who?

    Ty Montgomery
    Ryan Mathews
    Kenneth Farrow
    Adrian Peterson
    Inmann

    This is a full point ppr and I’m really looking for a solid high floor. I’m the favorite in the matchup.

    1. Yes –
      This is between Ryan Mathews, Ty Montgomery, and Inman. High floor is RM or DI. I think you have to play RM here despite the matchup. Best wishes, we greatly appreciate your support.

  6. Kenneth Dixon, Powell, Kenneth Farrow. Need 1. Standard league. Also Sanu or Garcon?

    1. I’m rolling Dixon if Forte plays. Otherwise, Powell all day. Have to roll Garcon. Cheers UncleM.

  7. Gentlemen,

    3 teams in playoffs. Foul Dudes/EarthPigs.

    .5 PPR/Need 2 WR
    Cooper, Davonte Adams, E Sanders, Diggs.

    Full PPR/Need 3 WR and a Flex
    Cooper, Landry, M Thomas, D Adams, Gabriel, R Anderson, Farrow.

    Kaep or Flacco?

    Full PPR/Need 3 WR an RB and a Flex
    M Thomas, M Wallace, Garçon, T Williams, Gillislee, Fat Rob, Farrow, K Dixon, Marquise Lee.

    1. Flacco tends to do well vs. man coverage and has the no. 3 matchup this week, but he is Joe, so IDK, he could have the best quarterback day tomorrow or a bad scoring day.

      1. Agree. Like Joe’s floor and am super high on Mike Wallace this week.

    2. That’s the nicest thing I’ve been called all season:

      – Rankings say- Adams and Sanders, but we have ES and AC back2back. If it was me, I’d roll Coop and get sick all night watching highlights of his ankle-breaker against SD last yr.

      -Cooper + Adams + Gabriel / Flex = Thomas or Farrow – use the tools to decide

      -Kaep is sneaky this week- but it’s hard to get away from Flacco in a must-win. I’d put my onions on the chopping block this week and, find out if Joe Flacco is elite.

      -LOL a bunch of 7 target/gm WR to choose from here- I’d prob roll my studs- Thomas and Twill and use all the tools and rankings to choose between Wallace and Garcon. RB and Flex Dixon or FatRob.

      Thank you, and Happy Holidays WhoDat.

      1. Thanks Byron. Happy Holidays to you and yours. I feel like you guys have been neutered by Deutsch, which I hate. Last time I checked HFF doesnt have a massive following of maniacal FF degenerates. Push that silliness back an hour so we don’t have to be all business.

        1. Love it, thanks Brother. We have a lot of good things in store for you guys. And, trust me – MD is in for the full court press this offseason

  8. Allright you Maniacs- you have me here live for the next 3 hours – GO!!!!

  9. Post By smacdonald0511@gmail.com

    Crowder or T.Hill…ppr

    1. Hill

  10. need 2. Standard.. but points for 40+ catch.. Watkins, Crabtree, M. Mitchell or E Sanders?

    1. Crab + Sanders

  11. Crazy to play Rivers over Brady?

    1. No, not at all- he has a solid floor and solid upside in this matchup. We always like Rivers when our back is against the wall.

  12. Standard. Starting Jordy, Edelman, Thomas but have Inman, T. Hill, and Jeffery hanging out on the bench. Seems the bench guys have better match-ups than starters. So, which three would you roll with?

    1. Jordy, Edelman, and prob Inman. Use the tools to decide between Inman, Hill, and Thomas for that last spot.

      1. Will do, thanks

  13. Stressing out over this….grrrrr dark or Winston? 6pts for td

    1. Winston

  14. I mean dak

    1. Jameis goes Famous when the lights get bright. This is a primetime matchup. Get sick.

  15. I’m wondering who to pickup and who to drop.

    ****’s, 0-0 up 105 to 41 plus 9 players tomorrow

    Carr and Prescott
    Bell, DMurrary, Miller, Henry and Gordon with the hip problem
    Wallace, THill, Mitchell, Crowder
    Rudolph
    Tucker
    Vikings

    I’m wondering if I should drop anyone for Dixon, SSS, Lockett, Gabriel, Hoagan, or Lee or DJax

    Thank you for he help.

    1. Standard scoring plus return yards

    2. Also if I make it this week my opponent needs a WR and the other potential needs a RB

      1. Should read my potential opponents in the final need a RB and the other needs a WR

    3. My inclination is to cut Dak for Dixon and cut Gordon for Gabriel or Lockett who has had stellar games recently. I’m not happy with either quarterback right now and I’m worried that Gordon is useless for the rest of the year, but fear they could pressure him back into service. I’m looking for advice, including just staying put if that is the smartest play.

    4. Would drop Crowder for DJax, if I wasn’t planning on starting either this week. Prescott can be dropped for Dixon, SS, or Gabriel. We would start all 3 over Mitchell this week (and for me- probably over Crowder).

      Not sure you want your opponent rolling Gabriel against you this week. Good luck Minion, thank you so much for your loyal support. Happy Holidays to you, and yours.

      1. Thanks Byron! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! All I want for Christmas is a Ravens win over the Steelers…

  16. Post By General Soreness

    Need 2 please (standard)

    Jay Ajayi @ NYJ
    Farrow vs OAK
    Crowell @ BUF
    Fat Rob Kelley vs CAR

    Thanks

    1. Yikes- would prob roll Ajayi based on pure upside – would decide between FatRob and Crowell on the other- check the matchup tool and the vegas tool.

      1. Post By General Soreness

        Thanks

      2. Post By General Soreness

        Sorry to double dip but I just found Kenneth Dixon on the WW. Would you start him over Crowell or FatRob? Crowell has a surprisingly good prop.

        1. think I’d prob stick with Crowell

          1. Post By General Soreness

            Thanks Byron. Happy Holidays to you and yours, brother

  17. With Forte a go, should I play T Coleman in flex (standard scoring) vs. Powell?

    I’m leaning Watkins & Cooper for WR slots. I have TyWill and M. Mitchell (def. sitting MM) but can play TW in flex vs. a RB. Your thoughts?

    Play KC defense over Patriots? I can pick up the Jets off waiver but think that’s getting too cute.

    You guys are excellent!

    1. Hi freebird- Happy Holidays to you and yours.

      I love Coleman this week. Blame me if it doesn’t work out.

      Like where your head is at with those WR. Would not flex Twill over Coleman

      Yes- play KC Defense -the upside is too big.

      1. Thanks for the confirmation, Byron…yeah, I smell a big game for Telvin this week and really wanted him in my lineup. Forte just made it easy to do. My shoulders are big enough if he crashes and burns.

        One more sanity check if you have time, I know Carr is ranked higher than Winston, and agree SD/Oak will be a shoot out, but I’m sorely tempted to let ride Winston to the finals. Your thoughts?

        1. I like Winston this week, too- but cannot pull the trigger over Carr with the O/U in that contest.

  18. Thanks for your time…
    1. Opp has Cousins and Tyreek. Stick w/ Big Ben or pivot to Alex Smith?
    2. .5pr/.5 per rush 1st down. Crow, JJ Nelson and Malcolm M for flex.
    3. DST can swing big in our league. Min, Hou & GB are my options. Does Houston injury report sway the call?

    1. Hi Fitzmen- thank you so much for your loyal support. We have a huge offseason planned for you guys.

      – Roll Big Ben. Alex Smith a solid floor guy- rarely inspires with upside (and I like him this week)
      -Nelson
      -I’d roll Minny if I had any doubts.

      1. FINALLY someone with the cajones to recommend JJ! I agree…back in week 8 I threw JJ in as a hail mary vs this week’s opponent and crushed his peanuts. Time to double down. And thank you…I feel like I’m stealing for $2.99/mo.

  19. need 1 WR and 1 flex:
    – brandin cooks
    – sammy watkings
    – jordan howard
    – tevin coleman

    on the show they leaned cooks over watkins barely for a caller asking about cooks vs watkins. trashman had watkins and alex liked cooks…. youre the tie breaker

    1. Watkins and Coleman. Don’t hate it if your roll Howard.

      Cooks can hit big anytime, but I trust Watkin’s floor more- and you can never forget how electric is capable of being- he’s got big play potential, too. On matters like these- it’s usually safest to trust the Trashman.

      1. well brandin cooks just matched watkins safe floor on his first touch, maybe he wont get the ball the rest of the game.

        1. aww shucks

          1. alright, you guys are assholes

  20. Jameis or Cam?

    1. Cam

  21. Also need 1 for standard: Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel. Need highest upside I’m down 25 in a two wk playoff.

  22. Don’t outsmart yourself in the most import an week of the season. Put the S on your chest, and roll Newton.

  23. Need to start 2 in a ppr… Gabriel, Farrow, Montgomery. Thank you

    1. Definitely Gabriel. I’m personally pretty high on TM tomorrow, and so goosey about Farrow for my playoff life until I see it first. That’s a tough call- see what Vegas thinks, and where there is agreement with the other tools. Trashman’s flex rankings can sometimes be garbage, but we always check under the lid.

  24. Lost Bernard and Gordon. Only guys left in my 1/2 point PPR are Burkhead, Charles Simms, Dwayne Washington, and Farrow. We also get 1 point for every 10 yards receiving in addition to 1 point every 20 yards rushing. I need two of the four. Who would you recommend?

    1. Farrow + geeze louise- can you not start a trash WR there instead of those other guys? We would prefer that. If you can- check the WK15 WWCS.

      If not- I guess I’d have to roll Washington based on his snap count %

  25. Post By kevaurandt@gmail.com

    Byron

    Palpably Unfair Acts Championship round(s) on NFL
    QB Ryan or Brady
    RB Jay Ajayi tonight and Elliot tomorrow or replace one with Blount
    WR Garcon, D Adams, Ty Hill, and Mike Evans (as flex) or Meredith or Tyrell Williams (Need 4 of 6)?

    Thanks…Rosterwatch YOU GUYS ROCK!!!

    Kevin

    1. Post By kevaurandt@gmail.com

      PPR By the By

    2. love the name- thank you so much for your support-

      Ryan
      Sorry about missing Ajayi- if it were me I’d would have rolled Zeke and Blount.
      Evans + Adams + Hill + Tyrell

  26. Semis! Need rb2+flex: Crowell, Kelley, AP, Ris Matthews, Inman, Hopkins? .5ppr (Have Cousins @qb + Demarco at rb1)

    1. Crowell and Kelley + Inman

      1. Just need one RB + flex out of those?

  27. Hey RW, new Pro member here, love the analytics! Need 1 flex (standard) Inman, Cooks, Ware or Crowder?

    Thx!

    1. Welcome aboard! We hope you love our maniacal football community!

      I think, you have to take your chances with Ware here. Good luck. Trashman seems to agree in his Flex Rankings. God’s Speed, sir.

      1. Thanks BL!

  28. Brees or Carr?
    Also.. 1 point PPR,Ertz or Rudolph?

    1. Carr + Rudolph

  29. How’s it going in Dallas, BL? hope things are all right, man. Quick question, the guy’s are talking about Dixon a lot. would you play Dixon over Farrow (RB-SD) with Melvin Gordon out? Thanks!

    1. I’d roll Farrow based on the matchup, and perceived workload- also the over under. Thanks a lot, brother. Happy Holidays to you and yours. We’ll be rooting for your squad this weekend.

      -B

      1. Sounds good, brotha. Happy holidays and safe trip back home. We need the trio of Rosterwatch back one more time before the end of the year.

  30. Need 1 for standard: Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Tyreek Hill, Taylor Gabriel. Need highest upside I’m down 25 in 2nd wk of a two wk playoff.

    1. Highest upside is buying stock in ARodgers. We’d roll DA.

  31. Standard: Need 1 WR – B. Cooks, D. Adams, D. Inman and 1 Flex from remaining WR plus J. Howard, T. Coleman, and K. Farrow. Thanks

    1. Adams + Coleman. Good luck, and thank you so much for your support.

  32. 12 team standard. Cooper, Adams, Watkins as my WRs. T. Williams as flex WR/TE. Ware & Colman as RBs. Currently have Farrow in as flex WR/RB.
    Have Reed and JJ Nelson available. Stick with my current lineup or replace anyone with Reed and/or JJ?

  33. Do I take the risk and roll with Reed? Brate is my back-up

    1. Didn’t sound like you had to start Reed. Yeah, if we had to roll one of those TE- we’d take our chances with Reed

  34. Think you prob have to stick with Farrow. Nelson is worth consideration, if you’re a gambling man- I like him this week. And, he’s always capable of a big play.

  35. Why does Alex always ask Mike Band
    if he can stick around for another segment?
    We all know already that he will haha amiright.

    1. LOL, I’m crying. Thanks for being such a great member of the community Frank. Happy Holidays, sir

    2. LOL. Classic

    3. lmao, it’s the pageantry of it all, man. and what’s Mike’s answer all the time? “You got it, man.” crying as well.

      1. Keep us in suspense Alex! Is it weird that I’m still up tearing through research? See you guys with that cup of coffee in a couple. I’ll guess the Trashman will be absent.

  36. Playing against Brady . Should I roll with Golden Tate or Malcom Mitchell to off set Brady

    1. Tate- we have always loved MM- but do not like him this week. Don’t worry about cockamamie offset strategies. Just make the best plays.

  37. Would you consider Flacco or Tyrod over Brees ? 6 pt TD

    1. Yes, I would. Brees is never a bad option if push comes to shove, but he is very difficult to trust. When in doubt, default to our QB rankings.

  38. Thanks for answering all these questions Byron! You guys at RosterWatch are the best!

    1. We love what we do, thanks to you guys. No sweat, my man- Safe and Happy Holidays.

  39. Missed the timing on this thread! Hope you get to this. Alshon ware JJ Nelson or Inman? PPR. Need two. Thanks!! RW4EVA!

  40. I’d roll Inman and Nelson. Alshon is too much of a wildcard, when we have so many circumstantial reasons to like the other 2 this week. Close the deal, brother.

    1. Yes! Thanks Byron. You guys are great. Best decision I’ve made in FF was getting a yearly subscription right before our auction draft. Have a great shot to pull it off this year after years of crappy mistakes and stupid decisions. You’ve kept me sane and grounded. Our last place punishment is a 15 open mic comedy set. Sober and they have to read what we write for them. The only other rule is they can’t say anything about why they are there. I’ll be in the audience, not sober and loving it. Thanks again!

      1. 15 minute open mic

        1. This is the best, we wish you and yours well during a safe and happy holiday season!

          -B

  41. Come on guys, what are you waiting for? You have me here for 2 hours- get it in while you fit in.

  42. Post By rbrusuelas@consolidated.net

    Fitzgerald or Inman at Flex? Green or Reed at TE?

    1. 0.5pt PPR. Pick 1 flex: Doug Martin, Deandre Hopkins, Spencer Ware, Rishard Mathews

    2. Fitzgerald. Taking my chances with Reed.

  43. Pick 2/ Full PT PPR: Tyler Gabriel, Desean Jackson, Amari Cooper, Alshon J, or Tyrell Williams

    1. Coop + Gabriel or DJax

    2. Check to see what Vegas thinks- the matchup and snap % very very close. DeSean feels safer, but his targets are always scary. Gabriel feels a bit more of a clear cut option in the ATL passing game with Julio out, as crazy as it might sound.

  44. Great work all year, thanks for getting me this far. Need upside in the flex as I’m now a dog with Ajayi coming up small. 0.5 PPR choose one.

    Crowell
    Farrow
    Djax
    Peterson

    Leaning Djax right now. Thoughts? Thanks!

    1. Yes- I like where your head is at. I’m shipping my my chips in on Djax in this one.

  45. 0.5pt PPR: Pierre Garcon or Rishard Mathews

    1. Think I’m taking my chances with Garcon. You are praying for a TD with RM.

  46. 0.5pt PPR. Pick 1 flex: Doug Martin, Deandre Hopkins, Spencer Ware, Rishard Mathews

    1. Martin

  47. Post By Robert Braswell

    You guys are the best…in a couple of ppr leagues need to pick between watkins,Tyreek the freak or diggs.

    1. I’m rolling Sammy out. Good luck, and thank you so much for your loyal support. Safe and Happy Holidays to you and yours Robert.

      -Byron

  48. Post By rbrusuelas@consolidated.net

    One more? Lamar Miller or Spencer Ware? Rawls hurt me Thursday and lost Gordon (and Julio) last week, need scoring from RB2

    1. Miller- thank you so much for your support. Best wishes this weekend from all of us at RW!

      1. Post By rbrusuelas@consolidated.net

        Bryon, thanks for your guidance!!

  49. Post By farazfaiz@hotmail.com

    Pick 2 cannot be 2 RB 1pt PPR, R. Cobb WR, C. Hogan WR, JJ, Nelson WR. A. Peterson RB, D. Washington RB, S. Vereen RB, M. Thomas WR

    Thanks

    1. Nelson + AP (if you have onions) if not prob DWash, maybe MT.

  50. STD, need two: Tyrell Williams, Watkins, Edelman, Montgomery, D Adams, Cooper
    Much appreciated

    1. This is Coop and DAdams. Won’t hate you for squeezing in Watkins, or possibly a sneak Edelman if that’s where your head is at.

  51. Good morning, have QB questions for 2 different leagues due to injuries. Would you go with Stafford or Siemian in a cumulative pts based playoffs so and in a must win playoffs would you go Rodgers or Flacco. Thanks for all the great tools.

    1. Cannot roll TS over MS in good conscience. Must-win – I’m rolling ARod

      1. and, living with the results

  52. Need one in PPR. J Matthews, Smith Sr or M Thomas? Thanks!

    1. I have a sneaky feeling about the Sr Citizen this week, but think you have to roll JM here.

  53. Need one in PPR. J Matthews, Smith Sr or M Thomas. Thanks guys!

  54. 6 points passing touchdown. Need one Brees, Brady or I can pick up TyGod on the waivers

    1. If it were me – I’d roll Brady with a heart filled with vengeance. If you have concerns- we like TyGod as a pivot with a solid floor this week.

  55. Playoffs!!!! QB Question -Do I start Luck, Winston, or Carr? A. Smith, Bradford, Flacco also available on the wire – 10Team Std

    1. Carr is a safe play with upside in a nice O/U contest in sunny California. We’ll take our chances.

  56. 1pt ppr need one from Ginn, Marvin Jones, Dorsett and Rudolph. Thanks

    1. I’d give Ginn a spin for upside. KR is your “safe” play.

  57. I thank each of you so much for joining me in this thread last night and this morning. Best of Luck to All Members of RWNation this weekend.

    Safe and Happy Holidays to all of you from all of us @ RW!

    -BL

  58. Jameis Winston, Sam Bradford, Alex Smith or Joe Falcco

  59. Post By Robert Braswell

    No thank you Have a great holiday

  60. Need 2 of these 5. Cooks, A.Robinson, Stefon Diggs, Ware, Jeremy Hill. PPR league and already behind with starting Thomas Rawls on Thursday. Thanks

  61. Post By chris.irby7@gmail.com

    Need 1. Half point ppr. Farrow, Peterson, Sims, Sanu. Side note. I am starting Coleman at RB. Appreciate it‬

  62. Rishard Matthews or Crabtree half point ppr leauge?

  63. 3pm game question…. In PPR, do I trust Gabriel in a better matchup over Tyrell Williams (maybe still bad shoulder)?

  64. Thursday night flex question Draft Kings. Pick one of the the following options: Jordan Matthews, Shepard, Zach Ertz, Sproles, or Ryan Matthews.

Leave a Reply