PRO VEGAS TOOL: Week 16 DFS Flex Values Based on Vegas Player Props

alex bylineHere is a tool you can use in your Week 16 DFS research or for an extra tool in season-long sit/start decisions. We’ve aggregated all the open NFL player props available to us to identify how Vegas sees the fantasy production occurring this weekend.

By gathering the Las Vegas over/unders on receptions, rushing and receiving yards, we can compare the projected output to the DraftKings/FanDuel pricing as a tool in gaining an edge.

We can, of course, also use it as a tool in making decisions for our season-long leagues as well.

PLEASE NOTE:

– This is not a comprehensive list of all players, but we do our best to find as many props as we can across dozens of different sports books. Players will be added into the spreadsheet as the bookmakers get them to us through Saturday evenings in-season and later in the week during the playoffs. Please check back leading into lineup lock if you don’t see a player you’re interested in listed on the sheet.

– Due to the fact that we pull props from numerous sources both online and private, sometimes props between books and line-makers can differ, especially when getting them as early as we do. If we notice a major difference between two reputable books, we’ll update the sheet to use the average of the two props given, while accounting for juice.

– These are not RW official projections, but rather, an additional tool to aid our members in decision making.

– This is not the RosterWatch DFS Cheat Sheet. Cheat Sheets can be downloaded here once available.

– Players with no over/under receptions props available have been supplemented with implied associated stats based on season averages and/or recent trends.

– The “Bonus” column is indicative of the three-point bonus received on DraftKings for rushing or receiving for 100 yards. Players with organic production projected by the bookmakers at 89.5 yards (rushing or receiving – not combined) or over receive three points, 79.5-89.5 receive two points, 69.5-79.5 receive one point.

Click here to go the shared spreadsheet (PRO MEMBERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACCESS)

45 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Mweisselberg@gmail.com

    Need help

    Half point PPR
    Ahmed Ito Smith Gore or Ozigbo?

    DJ Moore or Beasley opponent has Allen?

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Did you play Amed? if no Ito is a low-grade option but he is the starter.

      I like DJ Moore this week. Beasley has been really good, but this feels like a muck/low total game for Buff.

      Good luck!

  2. ↓ Post By Cysplash@gmail.com

    Hey guys in the final. Got a pretty trashy question after losing Akers and now Higgins. 0.5 ppr. Need a RB and a flex.
    T.y
    Malcom Brown
    Hardman
    Michel
    Ahmed
    Darrel Williams
    Ogunbowale
    A.J Dillon
    Austin Hooper
    Need some decent floor not necessarily high ceiling.
    Thanks boys

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Hooper is set up to get 8+ targets this week. Play him. Brown is bettable for a TD. Roll with him. Good luck!

  3. ↓ Post By HebrewHammer

    Need a TE (PPR), here is everyone on my wire : Ertz, Kmet, Higbee, Knox, Akins, Eifert, Parham, Graham, Arnold.

    Thank you RosterWatch for a great season!

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Higbee has re-emerged as a preferred option in the Rams offense. I like him of that group. Ertz would be my 2nd choice. good luck!

  4. ↓ Post By born2beast

    Gibson, McKissic or Pollard in .5 ppr? Assuming Gibson and Zeke are active.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      JDM is the best of the bunch. Pollard is a tough start this week. Good luck!

  5. ↓ Post By born2beast

    Add Hilton to the post above

  6. ↓ Post By Rippp

    My RB’s are fading fast. Not expecting Gibson to play, but if he does…who gets the nod – Gibson, Gus Edwards or Zack Moss? Also, R. Higgins is now reportedly out…that leaves me T. Higgins and M. Pittman to fill the flex in addition to the odd man out at the RB2. Any suggestions?

    1. ↓ Post By Rippp

      .5 pt ppr

    2. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      If Gibson plays..you got to put him in there. Are you asking who to start between Pittman and TH? If that is the question I still like how the team is using TH. Go with him.

  7. ↓ Post By Mike

    .5 pt
    flex Kupp Gibson or Elliot

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Everyone is (rightfully) scared to play Elliot. I’m still rolling with him…The possibility of a low floor is there, if that freaks you out…pivot to Kupp./ Good luck!

  8. ↓ Post By mrbazzball@aol.com

    Hey guys need upside as my opponent had kamara… Standard scoring j taylor or kupp( bonus points tds over 50yds). Also Allen or Rodgers and lastly Buffalo D or Houston…Thanks for a great season….

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      Taylor is the way I would go with this one. Hope it works out for you.

      Josh Allen can win so many ways I’d play him even in the muck of New England. If weather is projected to be bad, you can easily go to Rodgers, but you need to decide today. Buff D is the better unit I’d play them.

  9. ↓ Post By Sanchez

    RW, need some advice for my championship run (1 PPR):

    FLEX: D Henderson or Gio Bernard?

    WR: Need 1, R. Woods, Hilton or Corey Davis?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      This smells like a Henderson game. Mal Brown could swindle you at the goal line but I’m still comfortable with DH. For WR Woods is the safest of the group. Hilton has that game breaking upside and Corey Davis is the split between the 2. I’d go with Wood. Hope this helps. Good luck!

  10. ↓ Post By caswell3030@yahoo.com

    Full ppr.. im favored to win by 35 after these 4 games..

    Need 1
    Gibson or mckissic or Keenan Allen

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      If Gibson does not play go with JDM. If he does play KA should be strongly considered. Good luck!

  11. ↓ Post By Yimi78

    Mayfield or Wilson? And ppr need 2 zeke, m Gordon, Mckissic, gage or t Higgins?

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      With Bakers WR core all basically going on the C19 list I would go with Russ. Gordon should be locked in, then if no Antonio Gibson play JDM. If Gibson plays you can go with Zeke. Good luck!

  12. ↓ Post By Don Fanucci

    PPR

    RB pick 1
    Dobbins, Pollard,

    WR pick 1
    TY Hilton, Curtis Samuel,

    Already played Kyler Murray and Jacobs, so I need help.

    1. ↓ Post By Alan Seslowsky

      With Zeke playing ..Dobbins is the play here. I’m staying with TYH at WR, he has had a solid floor with upside this last 5 weeks. Good luck!

  13. ↓ Post By mccoley

    I’ve lost Akers, James Robinson and Keenan Allen to injury. Need some help. 1 pt ppr need RB, WR and Flex from the following

    Tony Pollard
    Ito Smith
    TY Hilton
    Wayne Gallman
    Tyron Johnson
    Tim Patrick
    Alan Lazard

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Probably Hilton Lazard and Pollard- maybe Ito in one of those spots

  14. ↓ Post By rw-6cVImphCc

    Hi! In PPR: Kupp or Diontae? Bills or WSH D? Thank you!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Probably Diontae and WAS

  15. ↓ Post By rw-X9HcLpSKo

    PPR league, need a flex between Bell & Gibson. Thanks for the help in getting me to the Championship !!!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Bell

  16. ↓ Post By samdasios@hotmail.com

    Jonathan Taylor or Antonio Gibson in a .5 PPR?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Probably Taylor

  17. ↓ Post By Mweisselberg@gmail.com

    1/2 point PPR need help

    Lockett or Tyrion Johnson?

    Def
    Seahawks or Chargers

    Kicker lol
    Butler or pick up Fairbain or Zuerlien

    Need every point in the bowl!

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Mweisselberg@gmail.com

      Sorry Butker

    2. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Probably Lockett and Chargers Def

  18. ↓ Post By Buck_Nasty

    Rwn! Need a WR and flex in 1 pt ppr:

    Juju, keke, hollywood, zeke, darell henderson.

    I could stack hollywood with Lamar if that factors in.

    This is it boys! Let’s get it.

    Thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Probably Keke and Henderson- don’t hate Hollywood or Zeke over Henderson if you have a hunch

  19. ↓ Post By Coltsfan87

    Alright guys I’m in the championship and I need either Hurts or D Watson. Also at WR I need 1 out of R Gage, K Coutee, or A Lazard. Thank you guys for helping me to the championship!!!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Watson is a really good play this wk if you are worried about going to the rookie for your championship – but we have Hurts ranked higher. I’d probably go w/ Coutee!

  20. ↓ Post By Mweisselberg@gmail.com

    1/2 point PPR

    DJ Moore Beasley or Tyron Johnson

    Opponent has J Allen

    Thanks

  21. ↓ Post By Chief58

    Would you play Reagor or Ward over Claypool in the flex? 1/2 ppr.

    Thanks

  22. ↓ Post By gway22

    Gibson..Bell..Dobbins..Bench 1 PPR..

    Second question

    Gibson or Mike Davis..PPR

    Thank you guys for getting me to the title in 6 out of 6 leagues. Best fantasy source in the world

  23. ↓ Post By Alex Dunlap

    All three project within a point of one another, so if you want to not risk the turf toe with Gibson, it is fine. I’m more open to risk and love the upside of Gibson, but on our model he ranks last, despite the fact that I would likely play him. Same goes for Davis. GL.

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