Veterans Who Lost Value After Round Two And Three
by Alan Seslowsky – Twitter: @Alanseslowsky

One of the biggest thrills for year-round fantasy football players is watching where the incoming rookie class lands. Team context and the situation will dictate opportunity. Opportunity is directly correlated to fantasy points. The other side is monitoring the veterans on teams that acquire rookies. Rounds two and three of the NFL draft are considered premium rounds, where the rookie players are likely to see immediate playing time. Below are three players that lost fantasy football value after day two of the NFL draft.

 

Melvin Gordon RB, Denver Broncos

There aren’t many who believe Melvin Gordon is an excellent running back from a skills perspective. Gordon has averaged a modest 4.1 YPC (Yards Per Carry) for his career. To put that number in context, the best NFL running backs average over 5.5 YPC in any given season. Aside from his modest efficiency, Melvin Gordon has been an excellent fantasy RB for the better part of a half-decade. Forgiving Gordon’s rookie season where he scored zero TDs; Gordon is safe to project for 8-10 TDs every season. Melvin Gordon is heading into his age 28 season and is on the last year of his contract with the Broncos.

All looked well for Gordon heading into 2021 before the Broncos traded up in round two and selected North Carolina RB Javonte Williams with the 35th pick. Denver jumped ahead of Miami, who they thought were going to draft Williams if they didn’t make the move. Rookie RBs are usually ready to contribute right from the start. Their best production comes during their first contract. The only thing that could hold off a rookie running back would be a deficiency in pass blocking. If Williams shows he is a competent blocker, he should immediately see playing time. Melvin Gordon is not off the fantasy radar, but he goes from a low-end RB1 to a low-end RB2. A significant value loss after round two. 

 

Raheem Mostert RB, San Fransisco

Mostert was shaping up to be a 2021 “Zero-RB” player in drafts. As a refresher, “Zero-RB” is a fantasy football draft strategy, where players draft WRs and TE’s early while leaguemates are fighting each other for RBs. The idea is that Zero-RB players get the best WRs and can find non-desirable RBs who have starting jobs in round six and later. Mostert fits that description. Raheem Mostert was projecting for a 60% touch share of an elite offense in San Fransisco. Mostert has not been able to stay healthy on a consistent basis, which is likely why his  ADP is in the late sixth round. 

The 49ers drafted RB Trey Sermon out of Ohio State in the third round. Sermon profiles as a three-down back with requisite size. He is not a burner like Mostert but excelled at reading the defense and finding the open space to gain yards. Sermon is not projected to steal the primary share of touches from Mostert but can do enough to make Mostert unusable at his current ADP. The 49ers drafted another capable runner in the fourth round in Elijah Mitchell. Perhaps we will get some clarity during the off-season, but for now, Mostert is one of the players who lost the most fantasy football value after day two of the NFL draft. 

Other veterans who lost value after day two:

Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers- Anderson was a pleasant surprise in 2020. Heading into this season he was one of the better late round value players if you missed on a WR early. The Panthers drafted WR Terrace Marshall out of LSU in the second round. It will take Marshall a minute to get up to speed, but not too long as his offensive coordinator is former LSU O.C., Joe Brady. 

Jamison Crowder, WR, NY Jets– The Jets drafted WR Elijah Moore in round two. There is talk Crowder will be cut. Crowder was a late-round “safe” WR3 but is undraftable at this point. 

Christian Kirk/Andy Isabella WRs Arizona Cardinals- Kirk still has a chance at value, but he took a hit when Arizona drafted promising WR prospect Rondale Moore. Moore is a fun player to watch; he is short in stature but packs a punch and delivers hits. Andy Isabella is completely off the fantasy radar.