RosterWatch

Week 11 DFS Cheat Sheets: FanDuel and DraftKings
By Mike Band and the RosterWatch staff
Follow Mike Band on Twitter

The epic DFS Cheat Sheets for FanDuel and DraftKings are now LIVE and available for download to RosterWatch PRO members.

NEW! Check out the new and improved version of our professional lineup builder, RosterWatch HyperDFS, also in your downloads section!

*****As a reminder, we always recommend using the Cheat Sheet in conjunction with the Vegas Tool once it is published Saturday evenings as Vegas almost always identifies a few value plays who aren’t necessarily on the sheet, but may provide excellent flexibility cap-wise. Sometimes we will update the sheet through the weekend as information comes in from injury reports, Vegas or elsewhere*****

HOW DOES THE SHEET WORK?

THE GOAL of the sheet is to reduce the number of players for the weekly slate to players expected to generate Positive Surplus Value (fantasy points over salary expected points). The player pool is narrowed down to players who meet a minimum number of trends.

THE TRENDS are a series of pass/fail threshold tests of position-specific stats predictors. Through the use of predictive models, we have analyzed every predictive metric we could for each position related to Vegas Indicators, Unit Matchups, Individual Matchups, Historical Performance, Game Script, Weather, and so much more.

Using a non-linear model, we’ve found BASELINES for each metric. For each baseline TREND TEST, if the player passed, he receives a [+1]. For example, using the Matchup Tool Rankings vs. QBs, the model found that an Opponent Ranking ranked in the bottom (9) teams allow on average +3.7 surplus points to opposing QBs. If the QB’s matchup is ranked worse than the baseline, the QB receives [+1] trend. In addition to positive trends, negative trends are also included. The model found that the top ranked pass defenses vs. QBs allow on average -5.4 surplus points.

THE ORDER is determined first by position Salary Tiers, then by Total Trends. The salary tiers are colored by BLUE (High-Priced), RED (Mid-Range), PURPLE (Higher-Risk Bargains).

HOW TO USE THE SHEET

Choose the players from the sheet you like best. Mix-and-match them to create your personal, optimal lineup. It’s that simple.

Take note of projected ownership percentages when putting your team together. In 50/50, Double-Up and head-to-head contests, there is nothing wrong with rostering players who project as popular choices across the board. However, in larger field tournaments, it is always wise to differentiate from the public with a few lower-percentage plays and/or stacks.

The Vegas Tool will be out before the main slate occurs.

Click here to go to your profile page and download the Cheat Sheets and utilize the HyperDFS tool.

15 Comments

↓ Post By UndertakersNovember 17, 2017 at 2:41 pm

Do you like Burkhead over CJ Andersen in a ppr this week, need a win

↓ Post By johnnyGNovember 17, 2017 at 3:02 pm

Hey roster watch! Going against Antonio brown in a must win! Bigger upside potential.
Need 2 of 3
Parker
Drake
Jeffries

↓ Post By eyak29November 17, 2017 at 3:21 pm

Parker, jeffery.

↓ Post By jmorrisFFNovember 17, 2017 at 4:03 pm

Would you trade away Fournette for Freeman and Crab? PPR

Log in to Reply ↓ Post By Alex DunlapNovember 17, 2017 at 4:27 pm

depends on how bad I need a win this week and how risk averse I am. I think Fournette is the best player in the trade, but both he and Freeman are looking iffy for this week while Crab should smash. I honestly don’t know if I’d take the deal at this point, but I do admit that it is fair and if you need a boost to stay afloat this week, it’s worth doing.
Log in to Reply ↓ Post By WhoDatNovember 17, 2017 at 4:29 pm

Freeman’s concussion has me worried about him, and the fact that he is out this week makes this trade lose some of its luster. However on the Fournette side of things he has that ankle nagging him and teams are going to make the Jags throw by trying to stop him.

If you are sitting in a good position this week it is a good deal for you long term.
1. Log in to Reply ↓ Post By Byron LambertNovember 17, 2017 at 9:33 pm
  
  I think that’s a very solid deal, I’d do it.
Log in to Reply ↓ Post By jmorrisFFNovember 17, 2017 at 6:13 pm

I am 2nd in points. Tied for 2nd place with 3 others. Also 2 GB 1st place. I have Lev, Mixon, McKissic, Jamal Williams, and Ellington (+Buga). So decent a RB. But WR, I only have Tyreek, Doctons, Martavis, and Goodwin. Struggling.