Week 11 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position (DraftKings, FanDuel)

Kristen Ashly 750This week, when choosing your optimal lineup, remember that higher scores will be needed for cash games, especially since pricing is extremely soft across the board this week. Certain players are vastly underpriced for their output, so strategy will play an important part in both cash play and tournaments.

Week 11 is the last bye week, so be patient. Next week, the whole league will be up for grabs. Until then, here are my top picks for DraftKings and FanDuel for the week, by position.

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Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:

Derek Carr, QB- $6,300

Carr has had a few down games this season, when he suffered an injury against the Cincinnati Bengals, lost against the Denver Broncos, and failed to rally against the Chicago Bears. Aside from those three unfortunate weeks, Carr has racked up at least 20 DraftKings points per game. In the last four weeks, Carr has scored more than 30 fantasy points in two of the games, and zero games below 15 fantasy points. This season, Carr has tallied up 2,400 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions, making him a smart play in both cash games and tournaments. Due to Oakland’s soft defense, Carr needs to throw 40-plus targets to keep ahead in the game. The sheer production value alone will make Carr a solid, and cheap, signal-calling option facing an unbelievable matchup in the Lions.

Tyrod Taylor, QB- $5,200

Taylor’s astoundingly low price is only $200 above DraftKings’ $5,000 quarterback minimum. The price is a gift, as Taylor has scored at least 15 DraftKings points in every start, with the exception of last week’s Thursday night game against a dirty Jets defense. Lack of volume is Taylor’s biggest shortcoming, but he’ll need to pass more against the Patriots this week, making his unsteady production stabilize. Taylor has faced New England before, when during Week 2 he pulled out all the stops and totaled 28 DraftKings points, 242 passing yards, 43 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. He’s had three games in the last seven with at least 20 fantasy points, and there’s no reason to doubt he’ll do similar this week against familiar opponents. The one notable risk DFS players should keep in mind if deciding to roster Taylor is that QBs who’ve had success against Bill Belichick once in a season, when facing him again, rarely come close to duplicating what happened in the teams’ first meeting.

Charcandrick West, RB- $4,500

West is easily the most mispriced player of the week and will be, by far, the player with the highest-ownership percentages across all contest formats. In the last three weeks, West managed 77 fantasy points. In those three weeks, he also managed 20-plus carries and at least 5 targets in each game. Last week against the Broncos, he only managed 69 rushing yards with one touchdown, but this week, he faces a very soft Chargers run defense which is ranked as the easiest matchup for runners on the Week 11 RosterWatch Matchup Tool. With a price $300 less than Lacy, West is as close to a must-play as exists within the structure of the daily game.

Adrian Peterson, RB- $6,800

Peterson would be a slam dunk this week for every format, even at his price. As the No. 1 ranked back, Peterson racks up the yards week-after-week, and is coming off a 200-yard performance in Oakland. Against Oakland, Peterson managed 203 yards, a touchdown and 32.6 fantasy points. This week, the Vikings are favored against a soft Packers run defense, guaranteeing Peterson will have high volume production. At a price $1,600 less than Devonta Freeman, Peterson is the bargain of the week.

Davante Adams, WR- $4,600

It’s still yet to be seen if Adams is actually any good or not, but he’s seen 99 percent of Green Bay’s snaps and 32 targets, his large volume translating into possible PPR gold. He hasn’t seen the end zone this season, but that will only come with time. Last week, 21 (yes, 21!!!) passes were thrown towards Adams, and if Rodgers’ arm can improve (something I never thought I would say in 2015), Adams will be a must-add to any daily lineup at this price-point which is absurdly low for a high-volume option on a prolific – if currently somewhat struggling – offensive machine in Green Bay.

Stevie Johnson, WR- $3,900

Johnson enters the discussion this week, especially in DraftKings which is a full-point PPR format. With the injuries to Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd, Johnson saw 100 percent of snaps in Week 9, before the Chargers entered their bye week. Johnson faces the Chiefs this week, who have given up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Considering how much Philip Rivers loves to throw, Johnson sits firmly in the flex tier in standard leagues, thanks primarily to a high-target role on a depleted depth chart in a volume-passing situation. He may be considered a boom-or-bust option during most weeks, but Johnson stands to see a lot of action this weekend, so I’d risk it, especially at the low price. Keep in mind that his ownership percentage in GPP play will be among the Top 5-7 percentage-wise based on data from the locked Thursday slate at FanDuel.

Jordan Reed, TE- $4,900

Reed has proved to be a touchdown machine for the Redskins and when healthy is basically Kirk Cousins‘ WR1 in a tight end’s body. Against the Saints last week, Reed only pulled in three catches for 29 yards, but he found the end zone twice, racking up 17.9 points. The Panthers won’t roll over like the Saints, so Cousins should target Reed more often while Washington tries to keep up. With Carolina having the best CB in the league this year in Josh Norman, expect the tight ends to be targeted more as Jay Gruden will not trust a turnover-prone Kirk Cousins to test Norman down the field with any type of frequency. Reed could stand to benefit from such high volume, especially sitting as one of the best tight end options, even if he’s injury-prone.

Zach Ertz, TE- $3,100

Ertz is an uncommon player in DFS, boasting a high floor and what appears in 2015 to be a very low ceiling. However, in the last five games, Ertz has been targeted at least six times, picking up at least 43 yards in each of those five contests. Last week against the Dolphins, Ertz caught seven catches for 68 yards, setting season highs, and was the most targeted out of the team. Mark Sanchez is filling in for Sam Bradford this week, and Sanchez has been known to use Ertz as a safety blanket. The tight end is due for a big game, which could very well happen in a positive matchup against Tampa Bay.

WIN MONEY THIS WEEK ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL. But don’t take our word for it …
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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:

Cam Newton, QB- $8,600

Newton has only managed one 300-yard game this season, but he can still rack up yardage on the ground and score those meaningful touchdowns. Newton has scored at least two touchdowns in eight straight games, including six on the ground during that stretch. With his worst game of the season generating 16.3 fantasy points, only Tom Brady has shown he has a higher floor than Newton as Brady’s worst game generated 22.2. Newton faces a Washington defense this week who has given up two-or-more throwing touchdowns in seven of its past eight games. He may not go any cheaper than this, so play him while you can.

Mark Sanchez, QB- $6,400

Historically, Sanchez has not be an elite quarterback and some may laugh you out of the room for using Mark Sanchez, the butt-fumbler himself, and “elite” in the same sentence. However, last year he was considered a Top 15-level signal-caller at one point. In 2014, Sanchez started for the Eagles during the second half of the season, and finished as the No. 9 fantasy quarterback over that span. He’s back in Philly again where he excels in Chip Kelly’s offense, managing 277 yards per start in 2014 and occasional post-game celebratory cheese fries from fans at Pat’s. I would predict Sanchez to see a 285-yard outing, scoring twice.

Devonta Freeman, RB- $9,100

The price is steep for a running back, but he’s a beast and worth the salary. Freeman averages over six catches per game over the past month, making him a dual-threat. The Falcons face the Colts for Week 11, making it Freeman’s best matchup since Week 6. The Colts give up the 11th-most rushing yards per game, over 4.0 yards per carry, the fourth-most rushing touchdowns, and at least six catches per game to running backs. Freeman should have another huge day ahead of him.

Darren McFadden, RB- $6,800

The biggest issue fantasy owners have with McFadden is his lack of explosive burst that defined his style as a younger player in the league, and Dallas’ recent scoring potential as a team ailing with injuries to key personnel. However, with Tony Romo’s return, McFadden’s value increases exponentially, giving him the chance to be a Top 5 running back. Since McFadden has “taken over” the starting position, he’s averaged over 26 touches per game, which means the volume is there, just not the big red-zone translation … yet. McFadden is facing a defense that has given up 37 points per game to opposing running backs over the last four contests, though, so don’t be so quick to overlook him. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report heading into the game as McFadden popped up late in the week with a groin, and we all know that he’s a player who can be slowed badly by injuries.

Jarvis Landry, WR- $7,200

Landry is ranked 12th in targets per game among receivers, ninth in receptions per game and sits in the highest-echelon among fantasy wide receivers in percentage of team red-zone opportunities. He’s provided a strong and stable floor in PPR formats, but shows variant outcomes in standard leagues due to a lack of touchdowns despite all the looks he gets inside the 20. Though he’s been targeted 25 times in the last two games, he’s only managed one touchdown. Landry faces the Cowboys this week, who are suddenly respectable in defending the receiver position, but his target-rich role keeps him in the WR2 tier. Landry is just one of many fantasy players I’m hoping will cash in on the amount of targets he sees in Week 11.

Danny Amendola, WR- $6,100

Amendola is looking at a greater role in the Patriots offense this week, as Dion Lewis is on the IR, and Julian Edelman’s injury appears long-term in nature. The holes in the offense open the door for Amendola to snag a high-volume role in the high-percentage routes now missing from the roster. New England faces the Bills this week, who have allowed the sixth-most receptions (14.7) to receivers this season. Bills CB Stephon Gilmore said this week that the Bills No. 1 goal of the game will be to shut down Rob Gronkowski (easier said than done), but a clear emphasis on stopping Gronk should lead to easy looks at Amendola that Tom Brady will certainly exploit. Due to an uptick in usage and promising matchup metrics, Amendola makes a fine play at this price-point; and at his ridiculous $4K price-tag on DraftKings.

Travis Kelce, TE- $5,700

Kelce is another player that proves he needs high volume for his value to increase. The tight end hasn’t made a major impact since Week 1, where he caught six passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns and his price has come down significantly since the first quarter of the season in correspondence. However, Kelce still remains on pace for 80 receptions and 1,000-plus yards this season, which at the very least makes him an option when choosing to balance lineups. Kelce faces the Chargers this week, who have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends, and given up four touchdowns in their last three games. Kelce may not be a flashy choice among tight ends, but his price fits his production value, which makes him a great play when choosing to spend salary elsewhere.

Greg Olsen, TE- $6,400

Olsen is a solid choice at the position when the owner can’t afford Gronk who is always in play as an option despite matchup. Olsen plays a huge role in the Panthers’ aerial attack, getting 28.5 of the team’s targets, and at least 65 yards in each of his last five games, scoring three times within that stretch. Olsen proves to be the second-most targeted tight end in the red zone in terms of total team red zone target percentage, getting 33.3 percent of Newton’s throws inside the 20-yard line. All those targets will bode well for Olsen, who faces the 19th-ranked tight end defense.

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