Week 12 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position (DraftKings, Fanduel)

Kristen Ashly 750Week 12 is upon us and after a long Thanksgiving Day full of football, the weekend promises to hold another schedule of exciting matches, division-deciding outcomes and cash in the pockets of RosterWatch Nation. Here are my top Week 12 picks for DraftKings and FanDuel that guarantee a winning lineup.

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Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:

Philip Rivers, QB- $6,700

It’s clear that Rivers is still getting use to a horribly depleted receiving corp, as his last two games have been labeled “ho-hum”, at best. Prior to those two games, however, Rivers racked in 142.42 fantasy points in five games, averaging a whopping 28.48 points. Rivers will once again prove to be useful in any format in Week 12, due to his tendency to throw out of necessity for lack of any semblance of a run-game and a poor Jaguars defense. The Jags have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing arms and can’t rush the passer to save their lives, so it’s one week where all the injuries along the San Diego offensive line aren’t going to scare me off of using Rivers.

Kirk Cousins, QB- $5,400

Cousins is facing the New York Giants this week in a must-win scenario for the Redskins. In the last four games, Cousins excelled against Tampa Bay and New Orleans, while failing to succeed against Carolina and New England; the Giants pass defense aligns with the former. DeSean Jackson is finally back to full-speed, so Cousins will use his arm often. As a cheap play, Cousins makes an attractive tournament option, but stay away from rostering him in a 50/50s. Even with a plus-matchup, Cousins has been known to morph into a turnover-machine, though, so limiting exposure to him across multiple lineups is advised.

Adrian Peterson, RB- $7,300

Peterson sits at a cheaper price this week, after he failed to get past a recently sneaky-effective Green Bay rush defense in Week 11. He’s still cheaper than Todd Gurley, too, and that bodes well for fantasy owners, as Peterson’s one of the few workhorse backs in football, managing 20-plus carries in six of 10 games this season. This week, Peterson faces the Falcons, whose rush defense has allowed the third-fewest rush yards in all of football which will have most of the crowd off of him. Some players are matchup-proof though, and AP is one of them.

Javorius Allen, RB- $4,600

After suffering a broken arm on Sunday, it appears that Justin Forsett is out for the remainder of the season, which means Allen will see a sudden and severe increase in opportunities. Allen will take the starter position immediately, as options in Baltimore are dwindling. Last week against the Rams, Allen gained 16.5 fantasy points on 22 attempts, and received five balls out of the backfield. His sudden starting opportunity, mixed with a matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed nearly 20 fantasy points per game to backs this season, will result in an extremely favorable matchup for the rusher. Allen should serve as an ideal RB2 option this week.

Antonio Brown, WR- $8,700

Ben Roethlisberger and Brown stand as one of the greatest potential DFS stacks (and real-life pairings) in the NFL. Brown has managed 40-plus DraftKings points in two straight games, including the contest against the Raiders, where he brought home nearly 50 despite scoring no touchdowns. He’s tallied 1,141 receiving yards through the team’s first 10 games, the seventh-most through any team’s first 10 games in NFL history, proving he’s on his way to a historic season. The fact he’s on this pace having scrubs like Mike Vick and Landry Jones pulling the trigger half the time makes Brown’s current trajectory all the more sick. The Steelers creative and consistent usage of Brown keeps him in top tier.

DeSean Jackson, WR- $5,100

Everyone in the country let out an audible sigh when it was announced Jackson was returning. Jackson has yet to blow fans away, but last week against a solid Carolina defense, Jackson managed five passes for 87 yards and a touchdown. The Redskins will need to throw more against the Giants in order to stay ahead, which should be easy enough against a very porous Giants secondary. I like Jackson best in tournaments this week, but also feel he makes for a palatable option in cash games.

Rob Gronkowski, TE- $7,900

It could be the lack of teams who consistently use tight ends in their offense attack, or it could be the thin options for elite tight ends – or it could just be that he’s the best there is – but Gronkowski is consistently on DFS top-pick lists. His price has dropped slightly this week, due a poor Week 11 outing, where Gronk only caught two
of seven, Brady’s lowest percentage when targeting Gronk since Week 4 of 2011 against the Raiders. Expect a rebound from Gronkowski this week, where he’ll be highly targeted due to a thinned receiving corp. He faces Denver, who is one of the league’s best defenses, but has, at times, been absolutely terrible at defending tight ends on the season.

Delanie Walker, TE- $5,400

Walker is tied with Greg Olsen for top position in per-game production since Week 8. In two of his last four games, Walker managed 30.5 and 21.9 fantasy points; high value for a cheap tight end option. On the season, Walker has 53 receptions for 600 yards and three touchdowns, showing no signs of slowing. The tight end is seventh in fantasy points per game at the position on the season, which will bode well against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. If you can’t afford Gronkowski, or a more elite option, go with Walker for bang for your buck. The only hesitation with Walker is the possible return of Kendall Wright who may eat into target-volume in the areas of the field Walker is typically utilized. If you’re not comfortable with Walker or Gronkowski, the good news is there are a few other high-value options on this week’s RosterWatch Ultimate Two-Step DFS Cheatsheet.

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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:

Carson Palmer, QB- $8,100

Palmer is about as safe as you can get when looking for cash lineup options; he’s not scored fewer than 16.98 FanDuel points in any game this season and will be the most highly owned QB of the week in both cash games and tournaments. Owners might be turned off due to a 10.5-point spread in the Cardinals’ favor, but they shouldn’t be; Palmer’s efficiency is solid, and Bruce Arians is a fan of the pass game who doesn’t let off the pedal often, despite leads or typically unfavorable game-scripts.Palmer faces the 49ers this week, who have a baby-soft 30th-ranked pass defense. Palmer will make a solid play in all formats across the industry.

Brian Hoyer, QB- $7,100

Hoyer may not seem like a stable option, but in the four games prior to his last start, where he was injured, he averaged just over 21 FanDuel points per game, with a low of just over 17 points. This week, Hoyer faces a poor Saints defense, who has allowed at least 23 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the highest allowance in football by over 25 percent. I don’t have many “tried and true” rules in DFS, but I say playing any quarterback facing the Saints is currently a given. Hoyer basically has a floor of three-times his salary this week on Fanduel.

Thomas Rawls, RB- $6,300

Rawls is hard to stop, and hard to pass up as a piece of your DFS lineup, when he’s the lead back. Last week marked the third time he’s gone over 100 yards, meaning he only has one game of less than 100 yards when he touches the ball at least 15 times. The matchup against the Steelers is not an ideal one, but teams with decent running backs have put up good fights against their run defense (Raiders, Ravens, Chiefs). Rawls is a solid grab this week, as the Seahawks will always look to the run game when they’re looking for the best way to win.

T.J. Yeldon, RB- $6,500

Yeldon has been anything but spectacular this season, but he’s actually been pretty consistent. Yeldon is hovering around 11 FanDuel points per game, and shows no big fluctuations, which means fantasy owners can trust him – and also that a big pop-off outlier game could come at any minute. Yeldon has had four straight games with at least 17 touches, and last week was his eighth time in nine games that he’s topped at least 65 total yards. This week, Yeldon will only need 13 fantasy points to return two-times value on Fanduel, which shouldn’t be too hard against the Chargers, who allow the league-worst 4.9 yards per carry and are simply awful at stopping the run. Awful. Last week, the league’s newest “Who’s that guy?”, Spencer Ware, managed 90 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers, so expect a big week for Yeldon.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR- $9,400

This should be a quick sell. It’s a guaranteed monster. As mentioned before, the Saints defense is horrible. Hoyer is good, and Hopkins is a fantasy stud week-to-week. Even at the high price, he’s a no brainer. Just realize, you won’t be the only one on Hopkins in Week 12. It’s very likely that 50-60% of participants across all contests will have him on their rosters, so fade at your own risk.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR- $7,400

Edelman no longer stands as an option this season, and Fitzgerald is the next best choice when looking for consistency on a prolific offense with the Packers now sputtering. He might lack the fantasy stud components now at his elevated age, but he’s looked at three consecutive weeks with double-digit targets. Fitz is targeted often, and his price is almost criminal for someone who has been such an outstanding contributor in such a juicy matchup. This week, he faces the 49ers defense. During Week 3, Fitzgerald racked up 134 yards and two touchdowns on nine beautiful catches for PRR formats.

Jordan Reed, TE- $5,800

Reed has still seen a high number of targets, even with DeSean Jackson back. In his last four games, Reed has caught 23 of 32 targets for 165 yards and five touchdowns. His scoring power, mixed with his high completion-rate,should make owners confident in playing Reed in cash games, especially this week against the Giants. The Giants have allowed the second-most points to tight ends, placing Reed in the perfect position to bring home the bacon.

Gary Barnidge, TE- $6,500

Barnidge is another familiar face on my list of tight end options. He shows a capable crossing route, and is a solid red-zone option for Josh McCown to lean on as an easy progression read. His seven touchdowns in 10 games this season are the second-most in team history since Ozzie Newsome’s nine in 1979. Barnidge, simply put, is a beast, and should be a steady play even against a stingy Ravens secondary. Barnidge’s best game of the season came against the Ravens earlier in the year, and he’s a bullet that DFS players will love having left in the chamber when Monday Night Football rolls around to close another winning week.

2 Comments

  1. Hey RW, I need to fill a WR3 and 2 flex spots. Only 1 flex can contain a RB position. 1 point PPR.

    Martavis Bryant
    Amari Cooper
    Allen Hurns
    Stefon Diggs
    Buck (Javorius) Allen
    Spencer Ware
    Chris Ivory

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