NFL Week 12 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
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The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.

 

Carolina at Tennessee

• Predicted Score: CAR 19.83 – TEN 20.94
• Spread: TEN -3.5
• Value Index: 1.10
• Pick: TEN

1. Exploiting Carolina’s Weak Run Defense: Carolina’s defense struggles against the run, ranking 24th in rush yards allowed per game (129.4) and last in rush touchdowns allowed per game (1.6). Tennessee’s rushing offense, while not top-tier (ranked 19th in rush yards per game), can take advantage of this weakness, especially considering their slightly above-average yards per rush (4.4, ranked 11th).
2. Targeting Carolina’s Vulnerable Red Zone Defense: Carolina has a notably poor red zone defense, allowing touchdowns 70.59% of the time (ranked 31st). Tennessee should focus on efficient red zone play to maximize scoring opportunities.
3. Capitalizing on Turnovers: Both teams are relatively equal in terms of turnovers, but Carolina’s defense is particularly poor at generating takeaways (0.7 per game, ranked 31st). Tennessee should play a secure game to minimize their own turnovers while trying to exploit Carolina’s propensity to give the ball away (1.3 giveaways per game).

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Tampa Bay at Indianapolis

• Predicted Score: TB 24.87 – IND 26.12
• Spread: IND -2.5
• Value Index: 1.25
• Pick: IND

1. Leveraging a Strong Rushing Attack: One of the most compelling advantages for Indianapolis is their rushing offense. They rank 10th in rush yards per game (118.0) and 6th in rushing touchdowns per game (1.3). Against Tampa Bay’s rush defense, which is relatively strong (5th in rush yards allowed per game and 3rd in rush TDs allowed per game), the Colts’ consistent and effective rushing game can still pose a challenge. The high frequency of their rushing plays (44.14% of plays, ranked 9th) suggests they can wear down the Buccaneers’ defense over time.
2. Capitalizing on Tampa Bay’s Vulnerability to the Pass: Despite Tampa Bay having a solid defense against the run, they are weaker against the pass, ranking 31st in pass yards allowed per game (270.7) and 29th in yards allowed per pass (7.4). Indianapolis, with a moderate passing game (218.1 pass yards per game, ranked 18th), could exploit this by focusing more on aerial attacks, especially considering Tampa Bay’s tendency to face a high number of pass plays (61.99% of opponent plays, ranked 27th).
3. Exploiting Turnover Opportunities: Both teams are relatively equal in terms of turnovers, with Indianapolis having a slight edge in takeaways per game (1.6, ranked 9th). Tampa Bay’s defense, while capable of causing turnovers, also tends to give them up at a similar rate (1.6 giveaways per game). The Colts could capitalize on this by maintaining pressure and focusing on intercepting passes, as Tampa Bay’s opposition interception rate is 2.20% (ranked 19th).
   

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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona

• Predicted Score: LAR 16.91 – AZ 23.31
• Spread: AZ 2.5
• Value Index: 8.91
• Pick: AZ

1. Dominating with Rushing Offense: Arizona’s rushing offense is significantly strong, ranking 9th in rush yards per game (126.2) and 3rd in yards per rush (4.8). This is a crucial advantage against the Rams’ defense, which is relatively weaker in stopping the run, allowing 117.3 rush yards per game (ranked 21st) and 4.1 yards per rush (17th). Arizona’s focus on the ground game (43.41% rush play percentage, ranked 11th) can help control the game’s tempo and exploit the Rams’ defense’s vulnerabilities.
2. Capitalizing on Third-Down Conversions: The Rams’ defense struggles on third-down conversions, allowing a 40.15% success rate (ranked 22nd). Arizona, despite a lower rank in 3rd down conversions (35.29%, ranked 23rd), could strategically target this weakness of the Rams, utilizing their rushing strength and selective passing to extend drives and maintain possession.
3. Exploiting LAR’s Low Takeaway Rate: The Rams are one of the least effective teams in creating turnovers, with a takeaway rate of only 0.9 per game (ranked 30th). Arizona, having a relatively comparable turnover margin, can take advantage of this by playing a more aggressive and risk-tolerant game, especially in passing plays, without the heightened threat of turnovers.