NFL Week 13 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
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The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.

San Francisco vs. Philadelphia

• Projected Score: San Francisco 27.22 – Philadelphia 25.50
• Spread: Philadelphia +2.5
• Value Index: 0.78
• Pick: Philadelphia

1.     Third-Down Conversion Efficiency: Philadelphia’s offense is highly efficient on third downs, with a 47.30% conversion rate, ranking them third in the NFL. This strength aligns with a relative weakness in San Francisco’s defense, which ranks 21st in the league in opponent third-down conversion percentage (39.86%). Philadelphia can use this advantage to sustain drives and control the game’s tempo, keeping San Francisco’s potent offense off the field.

2.     Pass Play Efficiency: Despite San Francisco’s overall defensive strength, they rank 21st in opponent completion percentage (66.59%) and 12th in opponent pass yards per game (213.3). Philadelphia’s offense, with a completion percentage of 67.60% (10th) and averaging 7.1 yards per pass (8th), could exploit these aspects of San Francisco’s pass defense. Efficient and strategic passing could be key, especially in managing the game and creating scoring opportunities

3.     Capitalizing on Turnover Opportunities: Philadelphia’s defense has room for improvement in generating turnovers, with a takeaway game average of 1.3 (ranked #20). However, they can exploit San Francisco’s offense, which has an interception thrown percentage of 1.94% (ranked #11). Increasing aggression in the secondary and focusing on ball-hawking strategies could lead to critical turnovers, disrupting San Francisco’s offensive rhythm.

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Arizona vs. Pittsburgh

• Projected Score: Arizona 16.05 – Pittsburgh 20.75
• Spread: Arizona +5.5
• Value Index: 0.80
• Pick: Arizona

1.     Rushing Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Rush Defense: Arizona ranks high in yards per rush (4.8, ranked #3) and has a solid rush yards per game average (121.8, ranked #10). On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s rush defense is weaker, allowing 4.3 yards per rush (ranked #22) and 118.4 rush yards per game (ranked #22). Arizona can exploit this mismatch by focusing on their strong rushing attack, which could help control the game’s tempo and open up the passing game.

2.     Quarterback Pressure: Arizona’s defense has a decent sack percentage (7.92%, ranked #8), which can be leveraged against Pittsburgh’s offense that has a moderate QB sacked percentage (6.74%, ranked #18). Applying pressure on the quarterback could disrupt Pittsburgh’s passing game, which is already struggling (5.7 yards per pass, ranked #26). This pressure could lead to hurried throws, potential sacks, or turnovers, providing Arizona with additional offensive opportunities.

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Denver vs. Houston

• Projected Score: Denver 20.58 – Houston 22.46
• Spread: Denver -3.5
• Value Index: 1.62
• Pick: Denver

1. Rushing Offense Against Houston’s Rush Defense: Denver’s rushing game is strong, averaging 4.4 yards per rush (ranked #8) and 115.5 rush yards per game (ranked #12). On the other hand, Houston’s defense is significantly weaker against the run, allowing 5.4 yards per rush (ranked #32) and 155.2 rush yards per game (ranked #32). Denver should leverage this mismatch by focusing on their ground game, which can help control the clock and set up more manageable passing situations.
2. Turnover Differential: Denver’s defense excels in generating turnovers, with a league-leading 2.0 takeaways per game. Conversely, Houston’s offense has a lower tendency to give the ball away (1.0 giveaways per game, ranked #5), but their defense is not as effective in taking the ball away (1.4 takeaways per game, ranked #16). Denver can exploit this by applying pressure and creating opportunities for turnovers, which could provide their offense with shorter fields and additional scoring opportunities.
3. Exploiting Houston’s Pass Defense: Although Denver’s passing offense has been modest in terms of yards per game (185.0, ranked #25), Houston’s defense is vulnerable against the pass, allowing 7.3 yards per pass (ranked #28) and 252.5 pass yards per game (ranked #27). Denver could focus on efficient, high-percentage passing plays to exploit this weakness, especially targeting areas where Houston’s secondary has shown vulnerabilities.