Week 13 NFL DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position (DraftKings, Fanduel)
We’ve finally arrived to Week 13. Bye weeks are over and done, the injury reserve is in constant flux, and there’s only two words on everyone’s mind: fantasy playoffs.
This week’s Thursday night game gave us a glimpse of what we’re likely to see for the remainder of the season: brutal (or possibly glorious, depending on perspective) hail-mary endings, fights to the death, unexpected comebacks, blown calls by the refs and hunger like we haven’t seen all season.
It’s time to pay some bills. Let’s go over my favorite NFL DFS picks for Week 13.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB- $5,200
During Week 12 against the Dolphins, Fitzpatrick was the first Jets quarterback since Chad Pennington in 2002 to grab four scores and zero picks. He aired out the long balls during Week 12, as well, when he went five for 12 on passes 15 yards downfield, including four completions for 100 yards and a touchdown when targeting Brandon Marshall. His high ceiling shows no signs of lowering, and he’s proven himself a steady option, scoring at least 14 DraftKings points in every game. All-in-all, not including the game where he injured his thumb, he’s averaging 243 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions per game this season. Those numbers will hold up well against a 25th-ranked Giants pass defense, who has given up 8.2 yards per throw over the past three games, and the fourth-most fantasy points (18.4) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Fitz makes a great grab for a criminal price.
Jay Cutler, QB- $5,100
Cutler is a perfect example of a matchup quarterback; only valuable against certain teams, when the timing is right. The last two weeks, Cutler has proved himself a fantasy dud, where he struggled against Denver’s elite defense, and fought his way through a short week in the rain at Lambeau Field where he has been awful for an entire career in Chicago. This week at home, things are looking up for Cutler, who will face a 49ers defense that struggles to create constant pressure, and is ranked 27th in sack rate. The combination of a soft matchup, and plenty of time for the Bears to rest, make Cutler an ideal play this week, especially when he’s only priced $100 more than players like Brian Hoyer and Austin Davis.
DeAngelo Williams, RB- $5,600
Williams is a solid threat. This workhorse can play receiving back, goal-line back, and feature back, making him an important tool for the Steelers. Williams has seen 90 percent of snaps recently, proving he’s a valuable security blanket for Steelers’ signal-callers. The Steelers will face the Colts this week, who have allowed 18 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. His workhorse mentality, mixed with heavy involvement in the screen game, makes Williams a must-play.
David Johnson, RB- $3,400
The Arizona Cardinals’ backfield belongs to the other Johnson this week, as it appears Chris Johnson will be out for the season and Andre Ellington is battling turf toe. Fantasy owners shouldn’t fret about his limited action this season, however, as even with little playing time he’s managed 35 carries for 139 yards, 19 catches for 241 yards and eight total touchdowns (four rushing, three receiving, one return). Owners might be tempted to fade Johnson this week, as he faces a stingy Rams defense, but St. Louis has seen plenty of struggle against the run, and it’s hard to pass up Johnson at such a low price. Opportunity alone with let Johnson rack up the points.
Alshon Jeffery, WR- $6,900
It strikes me as incredible that Jeffery is sitting as the 15th-most expensive receiver on DraftKings, because he should be ranked much higher. When Jeffery gets the chance and is healthy, he’s an absolute fantasy stud. Last week, he only saw seven completions for 90 yards against an increasingly impressive Packers defense, but he’s had almost a week and a half to rest for the upcoming contest. This week, the receiver will come with WR1 upside, as he plays the 49ers, who have been torched in every away game this year. As one of the most frequently used tools in a pass hungry offense, Jeffery is a no-brainer at the price.
Danny Amendola, WR- $4,700
He may not be able to go, but if he does, you can’t afford not to have him on your radar. During the two games Amendola played without Julian Edelman present, he caught 19 passes for 196 yards, a number that could have increased, had it not been for an injury in Week 11. For Week 13, not only is Edelman still out, but monster tight end Rob Gronkowski is also out with a knee ailment suffered during Week 12. This week, the Patriots will host the Eagles, who have allowed a total of 583 passing yards and 10 touchdowns by Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford, during the last two weeks. Keep a close eye on the injury report for Amendola, but if he’s allowed to start, he’ll face a Philly secondary that allows the most fantasy points per game to wideouts.
Scott Chandler, TE- $2,500
Chandler stands as my “Who’s that guy?” for Week 13. Projected to be a top Tom Brady target with Gronk out, Chandler is priced at the ridiculous minimum. During Week 12, fans saw a glimpse of Chandler, who ran for a season-high 36 routes, and saw his season-best in targets (11), yards (58), and catches (five). Chandler is a must-start for owners for Week 13, as the tall tight end plays a prominent red-zone role for the red-hot Patriots. Chandler will be challenged by the Eagles defense this week, who has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, but that has changed in recent weeks since the loss of dynamic rookie LB Jordan Hicks who who’s coverage skills were one of the most pleasant surprises on an Eagles team that hasn’t had much “pleasant” in 2015. For the price, Chandler’s worth the risk.
Luke Willson, TE- $2,500
Chandler will likely be highly-owned this week, so if you’re looking for a deeper sleeper, Willson is a solid choice at the similar price. Titled as more of a hail-mary play, Willson will see more opportunity with Jimmy Graham out for the season. The tight end might not be steady and true, but he’s a big play threat with redzone skills, seeing an average of 16.5 yards per reception last year. Willson bodes well as a good choice for owners who want to place salary elsewhere.
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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Matt Hasselbeck, QB- $6,500
Though Hasselbeck might be too old “veteran” for some owners, he’s proven to be very valuable while filling in for Andrew Luck. In his four starts this season, he’s ranked at QB17, QB14, QB18, and QB13, and sits at a 81.6 total quarterback rating against four or fewer pass rushers, placing him at second among 34 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Though the game has shootout potential, being the second-highest over/under of the week. Hasselbeck faces a favorable matchup against the Steelers, who have allowed 18.2 fantasy points per game this year, and whose secondary allows 321.3 yards per game and 8.1 yards per pass attempt, over the last three weeks. With his arsenal of talented weapons, and his habit for protecting the ball by getting it out quickly and not taking sacks, it’s hard to believe he’s ranked as the 27th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel.
Matt Schaub, QB- $6,200
Schaub serves an untrustworthy tournament play, as his floor is too low, but will be a solid tournament option this week, with a large upside and a cheap price. Even without his biggest weapons, he managed 20 of 34 for 232 yards and two touchdowns against Cleveland last week. This week, Schaub will play the Dolphins, who are 27th in pass defense, tied for 30th in passing touchdowns allowed per game, and got fried by Ryan Fitzpatrick during Week 12.
Charcandrick West, RB- $6,700
It was announced West practiced in full on Wednesday, and will be back for Week 13. His coupling with Spencer Ware will be concerning for plenty of owners, which will make him a low-owned back who is excelling as a three-down workhorse. West faces the Raiders this week, who have allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Still, West will stand to make a better tournament play this week; a risky choice with top-five upside potential.
Alfred Blue, RB- $6,000
Blue is sitting at a good price for a starting running back, especially one that handles the majority of the carries in the backfield. Blue warrants consideration in a thin marketplace for feature backs, and has tallied 31 fantasy points in his last two games. Blue will play against a Bills defenste ranked 22nd agains fantasy backs, and allows 17.3 points per game to enemy backfields. With a healthy number of touches each time he’s on the field, Blue is safe play who will have ownership levels at less than 2 percent based on the locked slate on Thursday.
Devante Parker, WR- $5,200
While filling in for the injured Rishard Matthews last week, Parker caught four-of-10 for 80 yards and a touchdown, playing 82 percent of snaps after Matthews went down. Parker is expected to start this week as the X receiver, promising to get lots of looks from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The receiver is capable of big plays – scoring approximately 25,000 touchdowns for Louisville collegiately – and will see plenty of opportunities against the Ravens 27th-ranked pass defense (when accounting for adjusted yards per attempt).
Kamar Aiken, WR- $6,100
If you’re feeling particularly dangerous this week, you could consider a (hold your nose) Matt Schaub–Kamar Aiken stack. As mentioned prior, the Dolphins defense offers little challenge for opposing teams, which should benefit Baltimore’s most consistent receiver since the loss of Steve Smith. In the last three games, Aiken caught 18 passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns. In those same three games, he saw a total of 32 targets, with four of them in the redzone. As Baltimore’s top receiving option, and considering his great rapport with Schaub, Aiken makes a worthy starter with great value for production.
Kyle Rudolph, TE- $5,100
Rudolph can still pull his weight when the focus is on Adrian Peterson, as he proved during the last two weeks, bringing home 19 targets, 13 receptions, 159 yards, and one touchdown. This week, the Vikings host the Seahawks, who have the run defense to slow down AP, but are extremely vulnerable to opposing tight ends, ranking 29th in defending the position. Play Rudolph with caution: he’s hard to trust due to the low-volume nature of the Vikings passing game.
Jacob Tamme, TE- $5,200
Tamme will continue to take on a larger role in the Falcons offense, as Leonard Hankerson was sidelined at practice on Wednesday. In the three weeks that Hankerson was out, Tamme averaged 9.3 targets, seven receptions, and 77.7 yards per game, including a 10-catch, 103-yard, one-touchdown rally when Atlanta met Tampa Bay in Week 8. The Falcons will need to use all of their weapons, and Tamme is the clear No. 3 pass-catcher behind Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman.
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Yikes….FD picks were awful. Except Devante.