Week 14 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position
Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Johnny Manziel, QB- $6,400
This is probably the only time you’re going to see “Johnny Football” on my list. While plenty of owners will dismiss Manziel this week (and I can’t blame them), they should consider how badly Manziel will need a rally this week for the sake of his NFL career. Luckily for Johnny, this week looks promising: he faces a bad 49ers defense at home, and should have Gary Barnidge and Travis Benjamin, both out with injuries, ready by Sunday. During his last start, Manziel dropped 372 yards on the Steelers. Add that to his running ability, and the fact that the Browns can’t seem to run the ball, and you get strong potential for the quarterback this week.
Russell Wilson, QB- $8,500
Some DFS players strongly avoid using west coast players when playing in an early Sunday east coast game, but Wilson’s confidence is sky high at the moment. During the last three games, Wilson racked up 879 yards, a whopping 11 touchdowns, 95 rushing yards of his own, and zero picks. The signal caller is starting to look like the Wilson we remember, which should come in handy against the Ravens this week, who have been generous with the fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I would mark Wilson has an elite QB1 for Week 14.
Ryan Mathews, RB- $4,700
Mathews missed the previous three games for a concussion, but is due back this week against the Buffalo Bills. It appears to be just in time, too, as he’s likely to play a major role since DeMarco Murray has seemingly fallen out of Chip Kelly’s favor. Mathews is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and six touchdowns on just 89 touches. The Bills’ defense has been hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, so Mathews should see his fair share of fantasy gold.
Charles Sims, RB- $4,900
For a crafty and versatile performer, Sims is sitting at a bargain-basement price. Last week, Sims’ production was efficient with nine touches for 56 yards, and two receptions for 21 yards. This week, Sims is facing one of the worst NFL defenses in recent memory in the Saints. Owners should target the Saints defense, and Sims is a cheap and easy way to do so. He’ll serve as a good choice when spending money on other options, and should be considered as a flex wildcard in PPR formats.
Keshawn Martin, WR- $5,100
Martin only saw three receptions for 45 yards last week, but he had eight targets and played 97 percent of New England’s offensive snaps (more than Danny Amendola or Brandon LaFell). Gronkowski is expected to be a gametime decision at best, and if he misses this week with his knee injury, Martin will likely see a high rate of snaps again. Julian Edelman also remains out, so Martin will see plenty of targets when the Patriots face the Texans, his old team, on Sunday night. While his value will be tied to the health of his teammates, he is worth the risk at a low price.
DeVante Parker, WR- $5,900
Parker will stand as a popular play this week, but I would suggest you follow the herd. The big-play catch averaged 17.8 yards per carry in college, and has transitioned his vertical skill set to the pros with an average of 20.4 yards per carry. His growing rapport with Ryan Tannehill has slotted him at No. 2 on his team in routes over the past two weeks, giving the receiver a touchdown in each of those last two games. This week, Parker plays a shaky Giants defense who has given up the second-most yards to wide receivers this season. If you’re looking for a good looking, cheap chalky play, roster Parker.
Benjamin Watson, TE- $5,300
Watson is one of few fire-sale options worth considering this week. The tight end has averaged 67.4 receiving yards over the last eight games, with four touchdowns during that stretch, as well. Watson has proved to be a boom or bust option, but is generally a reliable option for Drew Brees. He’ll be a risky play, but a worthwhile one in deeper formats.
Greg Olsen, TE- $6,600
There’s not much that can be said about Olsen that we don’t already know, and it’s hard to make a case for any other tight end. Quarterback Cam Newton relies heavily on Olsen, as seen last week when he grabbed nine catches for 129 yards. Unfortunately, he didn’t see any of the five touchdowns the Panthers completed last week, but that dry spell won’t last long. Olsen faces a plus-matchup against the Falcons, and will be locked in as the No. 1 tight end if Gronk sits out.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Blake Bortles, QB- $6,000
Bortles’ price is shockingly low when compared to the production he’s put out the last few weeks. In the last two games, he’s thrown for 651 yards and seven touchdowns. This week, he’s facing an Indianapolis defense ranked 25th against quarterbacks this season. Indy gave up 45 points and four passing touchdowns to the Steelers last week, and Bortles himself threw for 298 yards in Week 4 against the Colts. Bortles will be a great bargain for those looking to spend money elsewhere; he’s ranked seventh this week in fantasy points per game, but is ranked 11th in cost.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB- $6,800
The Cincinnati Bengals have a great pass defense, but I’m not sure anything can slow Big Ben down. He’s had four straight games of at least 334 passing yards and 10 touchdowns during that stretch. During that same four game stretch, he’s scored at least 25 fantasy points in each game. Since replacing Landry Jones in Week 10, Roethlisberger has the highest QBR in the league at 86.4. The Bengals shut down Ben in Week 8, but he’s returned hotter than ever, and should manage to keep the streak alive.
Spencer Ware, RB- $4,500
Ware’s sale price makes him worth the look, even if he’s booked to share any workload with Charcandrick West. Last week, owners saw a slight indication he could be the Chief’s goal-line back, and that upward tick should continue as a trend against San Diego, this week. San Diego’s rush defense is ranked 28th against fantasy running backs, and have allowed the second-most yards per carry to backs. There should be plenty of opportunities and work coming Ware’s way.
Shaun Draughn, RB- $4,800
Draughn is worth a look, even if he’s part of the worst scoring offense in the league, especially since the price is right. With Carlos Hyde still out with a foot injury, Draughn is primed for another heavy workload. In his last four games, the back tallied at least 18 touches and 75 scrimmage yards, proving he works well in PPR formats. Tallying 35 receiving yards in all of his starts, Draughn has proved himself a No. 1 option for the 49ers, and will breakout as a safe source of yards against Cleveland’s 31st-ranked run defense.
Odell Beckham, Jr., WR- $9,100
The price is sky-high, but it could be raised higher, and owners would still roster him. Beckham has had five straight weeks with more than 100 yards, and posted at least 22 fantasy points in each of those five games. Last week, Beckham torched the Jets for 149 yards and a touchdown, making the touchdown total at 10 for the season. The receiver has proved that he can be consistently solid, and play a huge role on the team. The Dolphins don’t have an answer for him, so mark Beckham down as one of the top fantasy wideouts of the week.
Doug Baldwin, WR- $4,500
Baldwin is listed as $700 more than he was last week, and he’s still a great bargain. In the last four weeks, Baldwin has racked up 26.4, 41.5, 12.0, and 29.4 fantasy points, respectively. In the last two games, he’s caught five touchdown passes. This week, he’s facing the Ravens, who rank just 27th in defending fantasy wide receivers in DraftKings. Tight end Jimmy Graham’s season-ending injury leaves the door open for more opportunities for Baldwin, and you simply can’t get that production at that price point anywhere else.
Delanie Walker, TE- $5,600
Walker is a rare tight end choice right now: consistent and not touchdown-dependent. In the last three games, Walker has racked up more than 90 yards in each game, and a total of 22 receptions. He sees 26.3 percent of his team’s receptions; the second-highest rate among tight ends. Walker leads all tight ends by five receptions, and is fourth in the league in both yards and targets at the position. If you can’t afford one of the flashier tight end options, Walker’s floor remains quite bankable, and at a lower cost.
Scott Chandler, TE- $3,800
Chandler will prove to be another player whose value is dependent on the health of Gronkowski. If Gronk is unlikely to play this week, Chandler would step in for him. Last week, the tight end saw seven targets and turned in a 4-61-1 line. With a solid outing, and a likely steady increase in production, that’s all you need to know when choosing a cheap play at tight end.
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12 team full point ppr league. 6 pts per passing TD. I have Philip Rivers as my QB. Who do you like better at QB for this week Jay Cutler or Brian Hoyer?