Week 14 Free Picks Against the Spread
NFL Week 14 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
by Can’t Miss Mitch, Peter the Irish Guy, and featuring the ALGO. ACCESS the Algo’s Top 11 picks each week of the season with a premium membership, where you’ll also have access to betting content such as money vs. bet percentages across sportsbooks, state-centric prop finders and premium field-view content from Sports Injury Central.
The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.
IND vs. CIN – Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
- Projected Score: IND 21.27 – CIN 23.18
- Spread: CIN by 1.0
- Value Index: 2.91
Key Betting Insights:
- Deep Passing Game:
- CIN’s Yards/Play vs. IND’s Opp Yards/Play: Cincinnati can exploit the Colts’ defense, ranked 32nd in opponent yards per play, through deeper passing strategies.
- Exploiting IND’s Defensive Vulnerabilities:
- CIN’s Offense vs. IND’s Defense: The Colts rank 26th in yards allowed per game and 27th in points allowed. Cincinnati’s 8th-ranked red zone scoring percentage (TD) positions them to exploit these vulnerabilities.
CAR vs. NO – Prediction: New Orleans Saints
- Projected Score: CAR 15.20 – NO 22.38
- Spread: NO by -5.0
- Value Index: 2.18
Key Betting Insights:
- Capitalizing on Carolina’s Defensive Weaknesses:
- Points/Game and Points/Play: Carolina ranks 31st in both opponent points per game and points per play, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities.
- Exploiting Carolina’s Red Zone Defense:
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Panthers are 30th in opponent red zone scoring percentage (TDs). The Saints, despite a 26th rank in red zone scoring, should focus on red zone efficiency.
DET vs. CHI – Prediction: Detroit Lions
- Projected Score: DET 24.67 – CHI 20.07
- Spread: DET by 3.0
- Value Index: 1.60
Key Betting Insights:
- Exploiting Chicago’s Defensive Vulnerabilities:
- Points/Game and Points/Play: Chicago ranks 27th in points allowed per game and 30th in points per play. Detroit, with the 6th highest points per game, can capitalize on this.
- Targeting Red Zone Opportunities:
- Red Zone Efficiency: Chicago’s defense is weakest in the league in red zone scoring percentage allowed (32nd). Detroit, 12th in red zone efficiency, should focus on touchdowns in the red zone.
- Leveraging Offensive Strengths:
- Yards/Game and Yards/Play: Detroit, ranking 2nd in yards per game and 3rd in yards per play, should leverage this against Chicago’s 19th-ranked defense in yards allowed per play.
