Week 15 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Now that we’ve reached Week 15, and the end of the regular season is sight, it’s important to remember the basics of DFS. The main goal for owners is to find the greatest value, and maximize that value to its biggest potential.
Owners should never “force” a player’s value, or use a player that doesn’t otherwise seem like a very good play on merit alone, just because he fits your lineup. Most importantly, remember that value doesn’t mean the player is “cheap,” or inexpensive to roster. Value comes in all shapes and sizes, and each player should be evaluated on their own benefits.
With all of this in mind, let’s breakdown my valuable Week 15 picks for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Carson Palmer, QB- $7,000
You can’t draw it up much better for Palmer this weekend. Philadelphia plays at the league’s fastest pace, and the game should be a high-scoring one as evidence by its second-highest game-total on the slate. The Cardinals are favored by 3.5 and the projected total is up over 50 points, which bodes well for Palmer, who leads the league in yards per attempt and is ranked second in touchdown passes with 31. The Eagles’ pass defense has allowed 14 passing touchdowns in the last four weeks, and generally has issues with putting a hard stop to signal callers, ask Matt Stafford. With back-to-back games with two scores and more than 300 passing yards, Palmer stands as an elite QB for DFS in Week 15.
Drew Brees, QB- $6,600
Brees is a monster at home, averaging 350 yards, 2.83 touchdowns, 0.83 interceptions and 27.7 DraftKings points in six home games. His Week 15 matchup against Detroit has the highest over/under (51) of the week, ensuring Brees will rack up 300-plus yards for another game. Detroit is adept at stopping the run and Mark Ingram has been sent to IR, so Brees will be forced to throw the ball often in a potential shootout. Look for another big week from the veteran.
Denard Robinson, RB- $4,600
If T.J. Yeldon is sidelined with his sprained knee injury (and it looks like he is almost certain to) Robinson stands to gain a ton of opportunity and production potential. In limited action during the last three weeks, Robinson managed 119 yards on 20 carries, including 75 yards and a touchdown in relief of Yeldon versus Indianapolis. Robinson faces the Falcons this week, who have allowed more rushing touchdowns to tailbacks (15) than any other team in the league, and seems to be struggling internally. If you’re looking to spend money elsewhere, Robinson is a good grab at a low price.
Charcandrick West, RB- $4,800
As another option dependent on the health of a teammate, West is a solid choice. Assuming Spencer Ware remains inactive with a painful rib injury, West once again stands to see a ton of action on the field as the workhorse for the team. Baltimore has played well against the run, but West received 20-plus touches in three straight games before getting injured during Week 11, churning over 100 total yards and a touchdown in each of those games. The potential for high volume and the upside to break off big plays make West a deal at a clearance price.
Calvin Johnson, WR- $6,900
Owners have seen a very un-Megatron-like season from Johnson, so far, and he’s faced one of the toughest early-season schedules for a wide receiver. Still, he’s managed 71 catches, 981 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games, which makes his low price insane. We’re talking about Calvin Johnson here and he’s under $7K. This week, Johnson faces the Saints’ awful pass defense, on a fast track, in a dome, in the game with the week’s highest projected total. With an extra day to rest his ankle injury, and set at his lowest DraftKings price of the season, I would expect a huge payoff for a rebounding Johnson.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR- $8,500
Admittedly, plenty of owners will fade Hopkins this week because of his three underwhelming performances in a row, and the fact that he will have T.J. Yates throwing to him, instead of Brian Hoyer. He’s also facing a low floor, now that the Texans have decided to throw less than they used to. However, in little over five quarters Hopkins has had Yates under center, he’s managed 17 targets, seven receptions, 144 yards, and three touchdowns. Oh, and most of that was against Darrelle Revis. Yates practically force feeds his No. 1 receiver (maybe Matt Cassel should take note), which makes Hopkins a huge upside play. Hopkins faces the Colts this week, who he decimated during Week 11 for 11 catches and 169 yards. Indy’s soft secondary has given up the fourth-most yards to receivers this season, and Hopkins will face low ownership, making him a plus-matchup play for the week.
Antonio Gates, TE- $4,600
Gates boasts a solid amount of stability for a relatively inexpensive price tag this week on DraftKings. Gates has proven himself a favorite target for Philip Rivers, and the team seems completely depleted with Gates one of the last offensive options standing. Gates should see ample targets and red-zone work, as he’s tied with Washington’s Jordan Reed for most red-zone targets per game (1.7) among tight ends. During Week 14, Gates led the team for yards and receptions, and came in second only to old man Malcolm Floyd in targets. With Gates’ healthy target-per-route rate, and the astoundingly low price tag for a productive tight end, owners should roster him without hesitation.
Ben Watson, TE- $4,800
It’s uncertain who will be covered by the Lions’ “shutdown” cornerback Darius Slay, so it’s going to be hard to trust in Brandin Cooks or Willie Snead this week with 100 percent certainty. However, if owners are looking for a solid stack option, trust in Brees/Watson. Since the Saints’ Week 11 bye, Watson has seen at least eight targets per game, and tallied 15 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. Lions have allowed the most tight ends scores in the league, which at the very least makes Watson a Week 15 streamer.
WIN MONEY ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL THIS WEEKEND FOR LESS THAN A CHEAP CUP OF COFFEE.
Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
A.J. McCarron, QB- $6,000
Everyone will tell you to fade McCarron, has he’s had little past to evaluate when deciding on his value, especially since he faces the 49ers this week, who seem to defend better when at home. However, McCarron still holds value, as he’s looked pretty competent filling in for Andy Dalton last week, where he threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns. He made a few mistakes, as expected, but has an array of weapons to choose from, and the Bengals won’t change the offense because he’s starting. Priced at the very lowest FanDuel will go for a quarterback, McCarron is a sleeper for Week 15.
Blake Bortles, QB- $7,900
I mention Bortles a lot during my weekly DFS picks, and it shouldn’t be any wonder as to why. He’s been making us grips of cash. Bortles has proven himself extremely efficient for fantasy, as he’s had 10 touchdowns in the last three games, and in the last two games, threw nine of those touchdowns on only 66 passes. In the last five games, Bortles has totaled 15 touchdowns with only three interceptions, and acts as a guide for a top-ten offense (25.1 points per game) with a trio of touchdown machines (Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas have 25 scores between them). Bortles faces the Falcons this week, who are improved in the secondary from 2014 as Desmond Trufant and Robert Allford have developed, but are coming off a game in which their defense game up 265 yards and three touchdowns. If you’re looking for a potentially elite quarterback with a lower price tag, Bortles should not be overlooked.
David Johnson, RB- $6,500
It’s clear Johnson’s early-season efficiency hasn’t taken much of a hit in a featured role, as he has ran 41 times for 191 yards, caught seven passes for 52 yards and scored one touchdown in his two starts, thus far. During Week 14, he posted his second-straight game with at least 120 combined yards and his eighth score from scrimmage this season. Facing a soft Philly defense, and listed as the 14th-most expensive running back on FanDuel, Johnson’s high volume and game-breaking ability gives him top-three running back upside for Week 15. He’ll be in the Top 5 of highest ownership percentage in Week 15 based on locked Thursday-slate games at FanDuel, but he’ll be dangerous to fade.
Lamar Miller, RB- $6,700
The Dolphins’ offense seems determined to get back to the run, and Miller stands as the beneficiary of the move. During the last two games, Miller has ran for 202 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Miller managed 68 rushing yards after contact, the most in a game in his career. This week, Miami faces a San Diego defense that ranks 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (126.5) and gives up the second-most yards per carry to backs, this season. Expect another solid production week from Miller.
John Brown, WR- $6,300
With the presence of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and David Johnson, it’s hard to rely on steady volume for Brown, but he has home-run-hitting potential that just can’t be ignored. He’s going to get behind a leaky Philly secondary at least a few times for big, big shots. Averaging 19.33 yards per reception during the last three games, Brown only needs a couple of looks to hit value. Brown boasts game-breaking speed that makes him a threat to take any pass to the end zone, which is likely against a lethargic Philadelphia secondary. Lock Brown in as a WR2 with a WR1 upside this week.
Clive Walford, TE- $4,700
If you’re not sure who Walford is, you should change that by reading your RosterWatch in the offseason. The third-round rookie caught three touchdowns from Week 7 through Week 10, despite playing a limited number of snaps. Walford is consistently seeing more playing time, and has had 12 targets, eight receptions, 100 yards and a handful of highlight grabs over the last two games. Walford has a low floor, but increased usage, plus play-making ability, makes him an attractive upside play at a dirt-cheap price.
Julius Thomas, TE- $6,200
Last week, Thomas scored a touchdown, making the game his fourth consecutive in which he’s found the end zone. He’s quickly becoming Bortles favorite when the Jaguars get within close striking distance of paydirt. During Week 14, Thomas hit team highs when he caught five passes on seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face the Falcons this week, who don’t defend tight ends well, giving up four touchdowns to tight ends in the last six games. Thomas is not likely to be a huge score of yards, but scoring ability makes him an intriguing play.