Week 17 NFL DFS Strategy and Top Picks by Position (DraftKings, Fanduel)
We now enter the final week of the 2015 regular season, and like the remaining teams fighting for a playoff spot, season-long players (or at least the crazy ones who have a Week 17 championship) are scrambling to find the perfect lineup to end their season with, hoping to profit from the final playoff push.
This week, with season-long leagues ending, I’m going to focus on deep sleepers, risky plays, boom-or-bust options, and low-owned DFS pivots that will convert your last rally into a large payout. Let’s go over my top picks for FanDuel and DraftKings for Week 17.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Sam Bradford, QB- $5,300
While there’s no predicting how the Eagles with look without coach Chip Kelly, it’s safe to say the Giants have no chemistry or game plan on defense. Bradford has had no problem capitalizing on weak or strong defenses recently, after he managed 361 yards with two touchdowns against the Cardinals during Week 15, and 380 yards with one touchdown at Washington in Week 16. The Giants have been hemorrhaging points to opposing wide receivers all season, which is good news for Bradford, who threw 56 passes to 10 different players last week. With a low quarterback salary, and a large upside with decent talent in his offensive arsenal, it wouldn’t be crazy to predict a big week for Bradford.
Brian Hoyer, QB- $5,100
Hoyer noted Wednesday he feels “great”, after he was given the green light to play when clearing the league’s concussion protocol. Though the Texans are favored against a terrible Jacksonville pass defense, they’ll need all the help they can get this week, where they hope to snag a win, somehow securing a spot in the playoffs. Hoyer’s best outing of the season came against the Jaguars during Week 6, when he threw for 293 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. At his low price, and in a high-stakes game, Hoyer should make a solid deep-league streamer. If you’re in the mood for stacking this week, combine the affordable Hoyer with a higher-priced DeAndre Hopkins.
Frank Gore, RB- $4,000
With the Indianapolis Colt in must-win mode, Gore is likely to be leaned on heavily, especially with the likelihood that Josh Freeman (a grown man that plays with snakes for fun) or Ryan Lindley (who we’re not sure actually should be classified as a ‘quarterback’) will start under center. Last week, Gore turned up the heat and silenced critics with 15 touches for 85 yards and two touchdowns, ending the touchdown drought he had compiled over five consecutive games in a Dade County homecoming. It was announced Matt Hasselbeck is out for the last game of the regular season with multiple injuries, which bodes well for Gore, whose involvement increased when Hasselbeck left with a shoulder injury last week, during the second quarter. With Gore making up the majority of the offense on a desperate-to-win team, I wouldn’t hesitate starting him.
C.J. Anderson, RB- $3,700
Though he fumbled last week against the Bengals, Anderson still looked better than Ronnie Hillman, grabbing nine touches for 73 yards and a score. During that game last week, the Broncos had 60 yards after contact during the second half, their most in any half this season, mostly due to some big runs from Anderson. The Chargers’ defense is ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, which will further ensure the running game carries the majority of the work load. Due to a lack of touches, consider Anderson a boom-or-bust flex asset against a generous Chargers rush defense.
Roddy White, WR- $3,600
The pick might come as a surprise to most readers, but the low-owned underdog is what I’m rooting for this week. White will hold wild-card upside against a hopeless Saints secondary which has easily been one of the worst defenses we’ve seen in recent memory. The Saints are the first team in any week since the 2011 founding of RosterWatch to be the top matchup for every single offensive position per the famous RW Matchup Tool. White’s lone score this season came against the Saints during Week 6; he could easily rack up 100 yards and a score this week. Last week, White saw the second-most targets on the team, when Matt Ryan threw the ball his way six times. Expect another game with more opportunity, as the Saints will be focusing their pass defense on Julio Jones. White should prove a deep sleeper option for those looking for scraps near the min-salary line.
Nate Washington, WR- $3,600
Washington is setting himself up as Houston’s boom-or-bust guy, but has managed to shine when Cecil Shorts has been inactive. Last week, Washington showed decent rapport with new starting quarterback Brandon Weeden, after he completed a 13-yard score against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. I have no reason to believe he can’t do the same this week with Hoyer returning, as the Jaguars will be focusing their coverage on Hopkins, leaving Washington open in beatable deep man coverage. Use Washington as a cheap play with a potentially big upside, or as a tournament play against a sleeping Jaguars secondary.
Jacob Tamme, TE- $3,300
The Falcons have rallied from their mid-season slump, and are looking sharp as ever. Atlanta will need to take advantage of offensive options other than Jones, as he’ll be covered heavily. Tamme should have no problem stepping up to the plate, as last week he caught all four targets thrown his way, and moved the chains with two of those catches. Against the Saints during Week 6, Tamme managed three catches for 32 yards. Expect a slightly higher payout this week, especially against a bruised and beaten team ranked 32nd against opposing tight ends.
Eric Ebron, TE- $3,000
Ebron has seen 35 targets over the past two months, and boasts decent production value since Brandon Pettigrew suffered a season-ending injury. Last week, Ebron saw four catches for 49 yards, profiling more like a slot receiver than purely a tight end judging by the elite speed he showcased after-catch. The Lions love to get him in open spaces out in the flat and let him run away with a catch, which will make him a great option in a position filled with the uber-expensive and the useless.
WIN MONEY ON DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL THIS WEEKEND FOR LESS THAN A CHEAP CUP OF COFFEE.
Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB- $7,800
Fitz will be motivated for a big win this week, with a Jets victory securing the team a playoff spot, and facing a team where Fitzpatrick spent four seasons. Fitzpatrick’s use of star receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall make a potentially unfavorable matchup easier to overcome. Using Fitz is also a good way to leverage the talents of Marshall and Decker, without worrying one player might produce subpar production at the expense of the other. During his last five games, Fitz has boasted a 13:1 touchdown to interception ratio, keeping him in the QB1 convo. Play Fitzpatrick if you’re looking for a thrower with a reasonable price, a high floor and legitimate upside.
Eli Manning, QB- $7,500
Three words: Beckham is back. The Giants are a squirt-gun offense without their star receiver, so the return of Beckham is much needed, to say the least. This week, Manning and crew face a choice matchup with a soft Eagles pass defense, which has been dominated by quarterbacks for weeks now. The Eagles recently released coach Chip Kelly, which means they could play at a slower pace, or worse, an unpredictable pace, but he should still see plenty of opportunities to use his arm, making him a great GPP option. With one of the highest-projected fantasy points for a quarterback this week, steal him at a middle-of-the-way price.
Latavius Murray, RB- $6,100
Even though he’s not an elite NFL runner, it’s super hard to pass Murray up at this price, especially since he’s one of only four 1,000-yard rushers in a 2015 season that will be remembered most for being an RB-injury disaster. Murray showed up as the most productive Raider on offense last week, when he ran 19 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown. In nine of the last 10 games, Murray has at least 77 yards or a score. That shouldn’t be hard to copy; the last time he faced the Chiefs, Murray walked away with 86 yards and a touchdown. I’d make Murray my slam-dunk addition this week.
Charcandrick West, RB- $6,800
West has slotted himself in the top back position for Kansas City, and with the team playing for playoff seeding, West should grab a nice total from scrimmage as the team’s feature back. Last week, the Raiders let Danny Woodhead run a train on their defense, so West should have no issues against the porous run barricade. During Week 13, West only managed nine carries for 35 yards against Oakland, but in the three weeks since then, West has tallied 40 carries for 192 yards and a touchdown. High opportunity makes West a great option for owners not looking to spend a crazy amount on running back salary.
Martavis Bryant, WR- $7,100
Bryant was a disappointment for owners last week, after he only caught one pass for six yards. Bryant should have an easier time against the Browns this week, who gave up 178 yards and a touchdown to Bryant the last time they met, during Week 10. In the last 10 games, Bryant has gathered a 49-765-6 line, and Vegas is betting he can further the trend, favoring the Steelers by 9.5 on a Steelers-Browns total of 47.5. Bryant is still listed as questionable with an illness, so be sure to watch carefully for a gametime decision if you choose to roster him.
Jordan Matthews, WR- $6,600
Matthews produced low numbers for the majority of the season, but has picked up the pace in recent weeks. Matthews has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and strung together two consecutive 100-yard performances. He’ll face the Giants this week, who he caught six passes against for 59 yards during Week 6. Matthews usually serves as a cold boom-or-bust pickup, but this week, he’ll serve as a warm and respectable flex play against a beatable Giants secondary.
Zach Miller, TE- $5,900
After it was announced receiver Alshon Jeffery would sit out last week, and sit on the injured reserve for the last game of the season, Miller picked up the slack. Last week, he caught seven pases for 69 yards, adding to his three-game total of 18 catches for 211 yards. Miller should serve as a major part of the game plan against the Lions this week, and he gets a bump in PPR formats, as his heavy workload makes up for his low score potential. I’d roster Miller at any format, however, as he’s looking to show extra upside against a Lions defense that has been absolutely torched by tight ends, this season. Be sure to keep an eye on the injury report with Miller as he hasn’t practiced all week and is questionable.
Zach Ertz, TE- $5,700
Ertz has seen 30 targets over the last two weeks, proving he’s a major part of Bradford’s passing game. He responded to the high volume, by catching eight passes for 78 yards and a touchdown in Week 15, and 13 passes for 122 yards during Week 16. During his last three games, Ertz has totaled 26 catches for 298 yards and a touchdown, which shows no signs of slowing down or halting altogether. During Week 6 against the Giants, Ertz only grabbed four balls for 43 yards, but the Giants have allowed big games to opposing tight ends through the entire season, so don’t be discouraged by past production. Ertz stands as a must-own at his current price.