Week 8 Buy Low / Sell High
Alex Dunlap, Rosterwatch.com

Here is an expansion on the contributing content provided for our expert feature on Fantasypros.com this week.

1. Name one RB you would “sell high” on and tell us why:

Ryan Torain. 

If Willis McGahee had not broken his hand this week, I would say Willis- just because Tim Tebow is the Bronco’s new goal line back. (See Cam Newton’s effect on Deangelo Williams and J Stew.) Willis was #1 on my sell-high list coming into Week 7, but after the injury against Miami- even the idiots in your league will be lower on him than they should be, making the exchange variable tilt out of your favor. Hope you listened last week. 

Torain is not your typical sell-high. I generally like selling high to people who are donkeys. For this sell-high opportunity- you will have to look for someone who thinks of them self as a fantasy-savvy trade partner. See our RW Trade Fairness Doctrine for details on how to insitute a successful strategy in this situation.

Tim Hightower is done. The real “smart guys” in your league know this. They know that Shanahan is a nightmare, but they also know that Torain is a guy that Shanny has frequently compared to Terrell Davis, is a one-cut back in a system suited to that skill, and is seemingly set to benefit greatly from the absence of Hightower. They’ll look at the game log and see he has been terrible- but they will like the upside potential from a starting RB on a team that will be fighting for supremacy in a very winnable division. 

What they may not know is that he has looked terrible. Terrible. Even given opportunities against Philly (best matchup for opposing RBs) and Carolina (3rd best matchup for opposing RBs) he has failed to produce. He has been sloppy in his hole assignments. He has showed no burst or vision and seems to refuse to fall forward. He gets winded easily and generally looks slow. I see Roy Helu getting involved in a much more productive fashion, and honestly think that he is the player that benefits most from the Hightower injury. If you can manage to trade away Torain to an owner strapped at RB willing to take an upside flier in exchange for a high 2nd-tier player at a position of need for your starting roster I would make that trade happen. 

2. Name one RB you would “buy low” on and tell us why:

Peyton Hillis. 

Peyton Hillis is back running on his strained contract…..(err hamstring) as of Monday and our people close to the Browns are saying he looks good. In addressing the media Monday, Head Coach Pat Shurmur said that backup Montario Hardesty has earned more carries given his 90+ yard performance in Week 7 in the most awful display of professional football anyone has ever seen as the Browns managed to be less bad than the Seahawks. 

Scott Petrak told us on the show a few weeks back that Pat Shurmur likes to think of this team’s offensive identity as a “pure” West Coast offense. Here’s my problem with Hardesty- He can’t catch. He drops balls left and right and that is not what you look for in a guy you are hoping can be a Brian Westbrook-type. It just isn’t a fit without that component. 

Hillis has been a whiny little girl about his contract. He’s been injured. He has the Madden curse. The guy in your league who owns him hates him. 

Whether the contract deal gets worked out or not, the .500 Browns still have much to play for and Hillis has shown he can go into absolute beast mode- even against tough AFC North defenses. His perceived value is at it’s absolute lowest right now, and he represents a potential piece of your roster that can be a true season-changer moving forward. You will be on the right side of any trade in which you give away a sub-in player at your deepest position. This alleviates the weekly headache of having to choose which good player to start at this position, while adding potential RB1 production to your Running Back stable. 

3. Name one WR you would “sell high” on and tell us why 

Plaxico Burress. 

This weekend’s 3 TD explosion might be enough to weasel one of your league’s donkeys into taking the bait on a package deal with Burress and a flex-type player like Daniel Thomas / Mark Ingram / Marshawn Lynch / Deangelo Williams, etc. for one elite difference-maker you could add to your starting roster. Yes, he was seemingly the only person that Sanchez targeted in the Red Zone Sunday- but there are three issues here: 

1) Sanchez’s accuracy has been spotty at best this season. While he doesn’t make a ton of bonehead plays, he has not been accurate. He looks worse than he did at almost any point last year accuracy-wise if you’re watching objectively. 

2) Opposing defenses will not leave Plax that open in the end zone any more. Defensive coordinators don’t like serving up Red Zone opportunities to mediocre QBs on golden platters. 

3) He’s not going to be the guy that gets the yards on that offense. That is Santonio Holmes. Without the TDs, his production is borderline WR3 with a low, low floor. 

If you read our article on the Ticker at Rosterwatch.com about the Name Value / Production Ratio in trades, you know that Plax’s name recognition coupled with the monster game Sunday make him a perfect sell-high candidate at this point. 

 

4. Name one WR you would “buy low” on and tell us why:

Vincent Jackson. 

Not everybody in your league watches every game, and they certainly don’t spend their week analyzing tape and speaking with sources from practice. That is why you come here. VJax might be someone that a panicky owner is looking to deal, and you should take advantage. 

The fact is that his on/off performance has been due to not one, but two simultaneous injuries. Hamstring and Abdomen. Favor an ailing lower abdomen, and the lumbar portion of your lower back (connected directly to your hamstring) takes over the work.  It’s not a good pair of injuries to have together. He got in one practice prior to Week 4 vs. Miami, played for one half and blew up for 108 yards and a TD on 3 catches. He took on a diminished role in the 2nd half after tweaking the hamstring. In his most recent two games, he has faced two of the league’s top corners in Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis, and has put up two straight stinkers. If you watch the film, though- one thing is certain. He is full speed. He looks good and actually had these guys beat on a combined 5 plays where Rivers either missed him or went with his hot read. These would have been plays that made the difference in his providing you 3-point fantasy days and 15- point fantasy days in one play. Plus, he has already had his bye. 

Take a look at his upcoming schedule:
Week 8: @Chiefs – giving up 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Week 9: Packers – 2nd worst Pass D in the league, giving up 9th most points to opposing fantasy WRs
Week 10: Raiders – 5th worst Pass D in the league, and he always goes big on them.
Week 11: @Bears- 8th worst Pass D in the league. 
Week 12: Broncos- Horrible pass D giving up 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs. 

That takes you right into the fantasy playoffs with great matchups for a truly elite talent. I don’t think he’ll be a “buy low” longer than this week.