NFL Week 8 Free Matchup Previews and Predictions: Where Data Meets the Turf
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The Value Index Algorithm is back with your weekly dose of data-driven NFL matchups previews and predictions.

New York Jets at New York Giants 

Predicted Score: NYJ 19.10 – NYG 14.64

Spread for NYG: 3.0

Value Index: 1.46

Pick: NYJ

Turnover Margin:

• NYJ: The Jets are positive in turnover margin, ranking 7th in the league with +0.8 per game. This means that they are generally taking the ball away from their opponents more often than they are giving it up. Their defense is particularly adept at creating turnovers, with 2.2 takeaways per game, ranking 2nd in the league.
• NYG: On the other hand, the Giants have a negative turnover margin of -0.6 per game, ranking them 26th. Their defense only generates 0.9 takeaways per game, which is 25th in the league.

Red Zone Defense:

• NYJ: The Jets’ defense has been stellar when it comes to limiting touchdowns in the red zone. They are allowing a touchdown on only 36.84% of their opponents’ red zone trips, which places them 4th best in the league.
• NYG: The Giants’ defense struggles significantly in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 58.33% of their opponents’ red zone visits, ranking them 21st.
• Conclusion: The Jets are more likely to hold the Giants to field goals or no points at all when they get close to the end zone, which can be a game-changer.

Rushing Offense:

• NYJ: Even though the Jets do not rush the ball often (ranking 28th in rushes per game), when they do, they are effective. They average 5.2 yards per rush, which is the 3rd best in the league. This efficiency could allow them to exploit the Giants’ weakness against the run.
• NYG: The Giants’ defense gives up an average of 5.0 yards per rush, placing them at 29th in the league. They also allow 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game, which is the 3rd worst.
• Conclusion: The Jets have the potential to find success on the ground against the Giants’ vulnerable rush defense, which could lead to more extended drives and points on the board.

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Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers 

Predicted Score: HOU 20.82 – CAR 19.74

Spread for CAR: 3.0

Value Index: 1.93

Pick: CAR

Passing Frequency and Defense:

• The Carolina Panthers throw the ball frequently, with a pass play percentage of 64.36% (ranked #4). The Texans’ defensive weakness is primarily against the pass, allowing 245.5 pass yards/game (ranked #26). Given Carolina’s inclination towards the passing game, they might exploit this defensive weakness of Houston.

Quarterback Protection:

• CAR has a relatively lower interception rate of 1.66% (ranked #7), which means their QB is less likely to throw interceptions compared to many other teams. On the defensive side, CAR has an opponent interception rate of 2.94% (ranked #8), implying they have a decent chance of intercepting the ball. On the contrary, HOU’s defense ranks lower at #23 in forcing interceptions.

Defensive Pass Restriction:

• Although HOU has a strong passing game, ranking 5th in pass yards/game, the Carolina Panthers have shown competence in limiting the passing yards of their opponents. CAR allows only 197.8 pass yards/game, ranked 9th, which is one of their more solid defensive stats. Given this, they might be able to challenge the passing prowess of the Texans to some extent.
  

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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts 

Predicted Score: NO 19.71 – IND 25.38

Spread for IND: -1.0

Value Index: 4.67

Pick: IND

Offensive Power:

• IND boasts a solid offense, especially when looking at points scored. They average 25.4 points/game (ranked #6), compared to NO’s 19.0 points/game (ranked #21). Furthermore, IND’s TDs/Game at 2.9 (#5) is considerably higher than NO’s 1.7 (#23). This suggests that IND has a better ability to convert their yardage into touchdowns.

Run Game Strength:

• IND has a substantial rushing game. They average 124.0 rush yards/game (ranked #9) on 4.2 yards/rush (ranked #14). This is combined with a high rush TDs/Game at 1.6 (#3). On the contrary, NO’s offense averages only 98.1 rush yards/game (ranked #22) on 3.5 yards/rush (ranked #28). IND’s strong run game can help them control the clock and keep NO’s defense on the field longer, potentially leading to fatigue.

3D Conversion Defense:

• One of the crucial aspects of winning football games is extending drives and preventing the opponent from doing the same. IND’s defense ranks #8 in limiting opponent’s 3D conversion percentage at 35.58%. This means they’re effectively getting their defense off the field on third downs. NO’s offense already struggles with 3D conversions at a rate of 34.26% (ranked #26), which plays into IND’s defensive strength.