2013 Dynasty League Rookie Draft RB Rankings- Tier 3
Bill Byrne, Featured Analyst, Rosterwatch.com

Here are my 2013 fantasy RB rookie rankings of heading into NFL pro-day season. Tiers 1 and 2 can be found at the following links.

2013 Rookie RB Rankings Tier 1
2013 Rookie RB Rankings Tier 2

Here we rank Tier 3.

These rankings will bear little relation to which round I might think these guys will be drafted in. They are strictly evaluations for fantasy dynasty purposes, and are subject to radical adjustments post-draft depending on the situation they are drafted into.

8. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford, 5’9 1/8”, 214 pounds, 4.76 – Like Montee Ball, Stepfan Taylor lacks an elite top gear, but he does everything else well. He has powerful legs. As a runner, he commits quickly to the hole, and possesses adequate initial burst to get through it before it collapses. He never shies from contact, and keeps his feet churning on impact, keeping his weight forward and therefore is able to grind out the extra half-yard falling down. Like fellow rookie, Montee Ball, he does lack raw power to pound his way through tackles for many extra yards after contact, and his below-average long speed won’t allow him to break too many long runs at the next level. His skill set best suits a one-cut running system, but he has enough shiftiness to make defenders miss in space and possesses surprising burst out of a vertical move or stop-start. 
He also is a solid pass-catcher. He consistently plucks the ball away from his frame and looks it in before turning upfield. His vision is only average as he doesn’t always spot the cutback lane, and will engage defenders head-on when he does not see that open lane. He also tends to “run narrow” in the open field and loses balance when he needs to move laterally with suddenness.
 He reminds of a Chester Taylor in that he is technically sound and well-rounded, but doesn’t possess any elite physical tools. He will give you toughness and consistent production along with versatility in the passing game both as a receiver and blocker. While not having a terrifically high ceiling, he just may be one of the safest running back picks in this class. He never missed a game during his college career.



9. Christine Michael, Texas A&M 5’10”, 220 pounds, 4.54 – I wouldn’t blame you if you shot for the moon and drafted Christine Michael ahead of similar-sized but far more productive backs like Montee Ball and Stepfan Taylor. Michael is probably the most talented RB in this class not named Eddie Lacy. Unfortunately, he also has potentially the greatest “bust-factor” of any RB in the class not named Knile Davis.
 Michael is an explosive power back with the ability to also make defenders miss through the hole. His compact, thickly-built body is especially strong throughout his hips and thighs. He runs with good burst and with a naturally low pad level. He is decisive with his first cut, plant, and drive upfield and he and reacts well to his blocks. He shows good vision for the cutback, and excellent agility and shiftiness for a bigger back. His weapons as a tackle-breaker also include a nice spin move and a strong stiff-arm. Michael’s speed will catch defenses by surprise. When he gets into the open field, he can take to it the house. 
Michael comes with injury concerns. He broke his tibula in 2010 ending his season after nine games, and suffered a torn left ACL in November 2011. Most significantly though, Michael comes with a high ‘knucklehead factor”. Although Michael has flashed NFL talent throughout his career, his career at Texas A&M has been wildly inconsistent. Poor attitude and effort earned him a spot on the bench for much of his senior season, At the Scouting Combine, in typical Michael fashion, he overslept and missed two meetings with teams. 
Despite his high bust factor, because of his great upside he will be a bargain near the end of the first round of a dynasty rookie draft. 



10. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State 6‘1 3/8”, 230 pounds, 4.6 – Bell is one of the few true power backs in the draft class. He has a strong build with thick thighs and hips. He has nimble feet for a player of his size and has some deception to his game, slipping through cracks at the line of scrimmage. He shows very good balance and despite running upright much of the time, he gets low into contact and is consistently able to get shoulders down to make himself a smaller target and to deliver a blow to tackler. Bell cannot change direction quick enough to make tacklers miss consistently. He lacks the burst to bounce runs outside and get around the corner. His lack of top-end speed limits his ability to out-run angles and score long touchdowns. 
He appears to sometimes wear down late in games and at times looks to have mentally checked out.
 When he stays focused on his blocking technique and gives a good effort, he has the strength to be a good pass blocker. Often, his technique is sloppy and he does not finish his blocks. Bell is a dependable receiver out of the backfield, possessing the soft hands and receiving skills to be an integral part of the passing game.
 His all-around game reminds me of Legarrette Blount.



11. Kerwynn Williams, Utah State 5’8 1/8″, 195 pounds, 4.48 – Kerwynn Williams flies under the radar as perhaps the most un-talked-about RB talent in this year’s draft class. He makes me wish that his name was Kermit instead of Kerwynn, as in Kermit the Frog. He would at least get recognized more for his game. Williams is a big-play back who gets to his top speed quickly and he is an explosive open-field runner. In addition to being used as a RB, he will be an excellent kick returner. He runs with a tight running style, but sometimes lacks decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. He won’t break many tackles, but give him a crease, and he’s gone. His vision is better in the open field than at the line of scrimmage, and his balance is only average. 
His receiving skills are very impressive as he averaged 15.5 yards per catch on 45 receptions in 2012. He excelled in both the Great Idaho Potato Bowl against Toledo and at the East-West Shrine game. He has the concept of pass blocking, but lacks the “pop” to put blitzers down consistently. 
Williams is a draft sleeper, but one who reminds me a great deal of 49ers rookie and ex-Oregon star LaMichael James—who was a second-round pick. If Williams can add 5 or 10 more pounds of bulk to his lower body, he could be a huge surprise at the next level.

12. Rex Burkhead, Nebraska, 5’10 ¼”, 214 pounds, 4.73 – Despite their similar size, in many ways Rex Burkhead represents the anti-Christ(ine) Michael. I really like what Rex Burkhead brings to the table at the next level. Burkhead is a tough runner who has ideal size for the position and some real versatility. He is not straight-line fast, but his speed is deceptive and he has enough quickness to make subtle moves to make the defender miss. He has terrific vision and knows how to use his running lanes and when to hit the hole. He shows nice cutting ability and an extremely underrated burst through the hole. He can overpower smaller defenders and still has the agility to make tacklers miss in the open field. Burkhead is a much more explosive and a better athlete than folks give him credit for as was attested to by his 39″ vertical jump at the Combine.
 He showed toughness playing through a nagging knee injury in 2012 that slowed him down and will surely contribute to being drafted far lower than his skill set would otherwise dictate.
 He is a phenomenal route runner and receiver out of the backfield. Burkhead has large, soft hands and the ability to quickly turn and get upfield. While I don’t really expect it to happen, his upside is more of a Larry Centers-type back. In fact, at Nebraska, he finished his career with more receiving yards than rushing yards. He’ll be a much better than average pass blocker as well.
Burkhead is underrated as a running back and should not be considered a fullback at the next level. He’s not going to be a franchise back, but he does all the small things extremely well. The team that drafts him will get a solid committee running back who can be a lead back if called upon to do so. Burkhead is a great character guy with solid leadership qualities who will out-work everybody on the field. 



13. Knile Davis, Arkansas 5’11 3/8”, 227 pounds 4.37 – If you’ve read this so far, you are probably saying to yourself – “where is Knile Davis!?” Davis has two great positives – speed and power. He is really hard to bring down as he can blast his way through tacklers who don’t get a clean shot. He’s also a decent receiver for his size and he’s explosive in the open field. He is a capable pass blocker. He’s never going to blow anyone away with his quickness – he’s all about getting straight up the field, where he has long speed that is just insane for his size. He also reaches top speed quickly and has above-average change of direction skills. 
On the negative side, his field vision is average or worse. And amazingly, in 2012 he had three times as many fumbles as TDs. In fact, he had 7 fumbles on 112 carries. His ball security issue will likely be a long-term problem in the NFL. His hands are tiny at only 8 5/8”, and he carries the ball pretty loosely. He also lacks patience, often not giving his blocks time to develop, and he also prefers to run out of bounds instead of taking a hit. He often looks like a big back who thinks he is a small back, trying to make moves he doesn’t really have so that he has to gather himself to change direction, and loses most of his momentum in the process. He runs with a more upright style instead of running behind his pads and using them as weapons.
His high running style in turn exposes him to more injuries. He reminds me of Beanie Wells, but with even more injury issues. In fact he may have given new meaning to the terms “running back with ankle breaking abilities” and “injury prone”. He has sustained broken ankles multiple times as well as two broken collar bones. 
Knile Davis is an elite athlete, but just may be the biggest boom – bust prospect of this draft. His ceiling is high, but his floor is in the basement. His playing style and lack of a well-rounded skill set make Davis a back with three-down potential, but a third tier one despite some obvious gifts. 



14. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State 6’0″, 204 pounds, 4.63 – Joseph Randle may never become a lead back, but he has the ability to make an impact as a third-down back almost immediately in the NFL. 
As a runner, Randle is a work in process. He is slim in the lower body and relatively stiff in the hips, which affects his ability to maintain balance and stay upright on contact. He lacks explosion and he really struggles to accelerate out of his cuts. He’s a one-speed runner who lacks the extra gear to pull away from the secondary. 
He lacks NFL power, but has a very good ability to make himself skinny at the line and to sneak his way though. He’s tough enough, and finishes his runs by lowering his shoulder and falling forward—but he really doesn’t offer much after contact and can be brought down too often with arm tackles. The good news is that he significantly increased his strength as a junior and his frame is just starting to fill out.
 The best part of Randle’s game is what he does on passing downs. He has over 100 college career receptions and can contribute both as a receiver out of the backfield and running routes from the wide receiver position. He is a natural hands catcher with big soft hands that are more reliable than most wide receivers. He’s adept at following his blockers in the open field. But he is not explosive running after the catch. 
Randle is uncommonly good at blitz recognition in pass protection. He meets pass rushers squarely and anchors well, always showing determination, but again his narrow base somewhat limits him as a blocker. He is much more advanced as a blocker than most college running backs.
 Randle has shown continual development, and he has a high football IQ, is quick to read and react to a defense. He is aware of down and distance to first down markers, where the sideline boundaries are, and where the goal line is at. 
He will be best in a committee where he gets the bulk of the passing downs.  I doubt that he will ever be more than a 3rd down plus situational RB in the NFL.