2014 Team Strength of Schedule: Fantasy Football Implications
If you’re searching for tie breakers between players in your fantasy draft, look no further than their respective schedules. Even at the top of the draft, you might want to look at LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles’ schedules to help make your decision between the two (Hint: McCoy has the better one). We’ve sussed out the 5 teams with the best and worst upcoming schedules this season to help you make the hard decisions in your fantasy drafts.
Teams with the best schedules:
Indianapolis Colts
The AFC South had the lowest win percentage overall last season, so it makes sense that its teams make up the top four in easiest schedules. The Colts have the best schedule of any team in the NFL based on their opponents’ winning percentages in 2013. They face Denver in Week 1, but then things get much easier down the road. The end of the regular season looks especially bright, as the Colts face two NFC East opponents, Cowboys included, over their last five games. Trent Richardson gets a boost here, as does Andrew Luck, who could be a top 5 QB this year. This also bodes well for WRs T.Y Hilton and Reggie Wayne.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have a lot of young skill position players who need to prove themselves this season, but they have a schedule that works in their favor. They have a tough first three weeks with the Chiefs and the Bengals on their slate during that time, but their second half of the season is filled with teams that generally allow a ton of scoring. It would behoove you to aim for players like Bishop Sankey, Justin Hunter, and even Shonn Greene in trades if they flounder for the first few games.
Houston Texans
One can’t imagine that the Texans could have a worse season than they had last year, when they only won two games, but Houston only faces three teams that made the playoffs last season. I’m not expecting Ryan Fitzpatrick to have a great season despite his schedule, but his first three games are against the Redskins, Raiders, and Giants. I might take a flier on any QB with that kind of cushion to start the season in two-QB superflex leagues. Arian Foster is the biggest beneficiary here with this juicy run of opponents. I expect him to have a bounce back season of epic proportions.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is still rebuilding, but I expect them to surprise a lot of teams this year. Their schedule makes for fantasy gold with matchups with Philly and Washington to start things off and Tennessee and Houston to end the year. Should he stay healthy, Toby Gerhart will have a monster season, and the weak schedule makes the rookie WRs Lee and Robinson look much more attractive too.
Baltimore Ravens
If you take schedules out, Baltimore makes for the team I’m least excited about fantasy-wise. They don’t have a single player that is a lock to have a boom fantasy season, and question marks abound for several key players like Ray Rice and Steve Smith. That being said, they do have the best schedule outside of the AFC South. It really isn’t until after their bye in Week 11 that things really get tasty, so you might want to lay off their players in drafts and trade for them a little over halfway through the season where they’ll face New Orleans, Houston, and Cleveland during that stretch.
Teams with the worst schedules:
Oakland Raiders
Oakland has a brutal year ahead of them. They have nine games against teams that made the playoffs last year, and three of them are against teams that went to the Super Bowl. What’s so tough is that they don’t get more than a two-game reprieve against good defenses all season. Outside of Baltimore, the Raiders have the most suspect fantasy players already, and their abysmal schedule only makes things worse. I wouldn’t depend on any of their players as starters on my fantasy team outside of MAYBE the flex position.
Denver Broncos
This is kind of a formality as the Broncos have the second toughest schedule, but they also have Peyton Manning. They’re matchup proof.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams should have a stout defense this year in Sack City, but that doesn’t mean they’ll score points. Any team that faces both San Fran and Seattle twice already has a rough outlook, and unlike the Cardinals, the Rams don’t have the firepower to match up to those teams. Think about trading Rams players off of your team after the first three weeks, where they should have decent showings against Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Dallas.
San Diego Chargers
Though the Chargers have the fourth-worst schedule on paper, I think they actually might have the hardest road ahead of them of any team. I wouldn’t want to face any team on their schedule fantasy-wise outside of Week 1 when they play the Cardinals. They have eight games against playoff teams and their other matchups all consist of respectable defenses. They’ll focus more on the run this year too, so that is another strike against their players’ fantasy prospects. I’d give Ryan Mathews an uptick with a renewed focus on the run, but his schedule is just too formidable.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers will have to continue to rely on their swarming defense again this year with the tough schedule they have to face in 2014. They see Dallas and Arizona in the first three weeks, which is nice, but they have a fairly difficult road after that – they are in the NFC West, after all. Think about selling high on their skill players like Gore, Crabtree, and Davis after week 4. Their stocks won’t be as high again all season.
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Here’s the strength of schedule list for all 32 teams Per ESPN.com:
Rank | Team | Opponent Win Pct. |
1 | Oakland Raiders | .578 |
2 | Denver Broncos | .570 |
3 | St. Louis Rams | .564 |
4 | San Diego Chargers | .563 |
4 | San Francisco 49ers | .563 |
6 | Seattle Seahawks | .561 |
7 | Kansas City Chiefs | .559 |
8 | Arizona Cardinals | .547 |
9 | New York Jets | .520 |
10 | New England Patriots | .516 |
11 | Atlanta Falcons | .512 |
12 | Miami Dolphins | .508 |
13 | Green Bay Packers | .504 |
14 | Buffalo Bills | .500 |
15 | Chicago Bears | .496 |
16 | Detroit Lions | .492 |
17 | Washington Redskins | .490 |
18 | Dallas Cowboys | .488 |
19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | .484 |
20 | Philadelphia Eagles | .479 |
21 | Minnesota Vikings | .477 |
22 | Carolina Panthers | .473 |
23 | Cincinnati Bengals | .469 |
23 | New Orleans Saints | .469 |
23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | .469 |
26 | Cleveland Browns | .465 |
26 | New York Giants | .465 |
28 | Baltimore Ravens | .461 |
29 | Jacksonville Jaguars | .453 |
30 | Houston Texans | .441 |
31 | Tennessee Titans | .438 |
32 | Indianapolis Colts | .430 |