Luke Shabro, RosterWatch Featured Columnist

Second-year Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has a bright future in the NFL – and in fantasy football.

The question with Hopkins is: How far in the future fantasy owners will have to wait for him to explode onto the scene? After all, Hopkins had a decent rookie campaign but struggled to score touchdowns.

Hopkins has decent height (6’1”), weight (215 lbs) and speed (4.51 40-yard dash), but is not exactly a freakish physical specimen. He doesn’t always present a serious mismatch advantage against NFL defenses. Hopkins has routinely drawn comparisons to Falcons star wide receiver Roddy White. That comparison is fair but Hopkins actually could be fairly compared to elite Arizona Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald. Former Texans head coach Gary Kubiak himself compared Hopkins to Fitzgerald in 2013. This could be seen as high praise or it could be seen as overrating Hopkins, but besides touchdowns, Hopkins and Fitzgerald had similar rookie stats (Fitzgerald: 58 receptions, 780 yards; Hopkins: 52 receptions, 802 yards). Both are excellent route runners with incredible hands who get open.

Hopkins’ positives far outweigh his negatives when considering his fantasy potential in 2014 and beyond. He is a major sleeper for 2014 and could be a serious breakout candidate as early as this season.

Positives

Hands: This kid grabs every ball catchable. He had excellent hands throughout his career at Clemson and that hasn’t changed in the NFL. Out of 53 catchable balls, Hopkins has only dropped one. He was second in the league only to Larry Fitzgerald who also dropped one but had 30 more catchable balls.

Mental Ability: Hopkins appears to know the whole route tree. He’s not exactly a burner but he’s fast enough and intelligent enough to create separation. Also, he’s been described as a guy that is constantly honing his craft.

Target of Opportunity: Andre Johnson has been a monster for over ten years. He doesn’t have the credentials to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer but he has been the best receiver on the Texans roster since entering the league. Believe it or not, Andre Johnson has never had double digit touchdowns in a season. Johnson is now 33 years old and while he will remain on the top of the depth chart, his targets are going to go down. The Texans, outside of Johnson and Hopkins, currently have a lackluster receiving corps consisting of wideouts Keshawn Martin, DeVier Posey and the pipsqueak diminutive Mike Thomas coupled with tight ends Garrett Graham and C.J. Fiedorowicz. None of these guys are Pro Bowl talents so Hopkins has a good shot at leading the team in targets, receptions and touchdowns.

Negatives

Quarterbacking: Texans head coach Bill O’Brien has initially named Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, although it remains to be seen how long he will remain the starter after an atrocious performance against the Arizona Cardinals in the first week of the preseason. The current backups to the “Amish Pee-Pee Arm” are Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage. No matter which of these three are behind center on week 1, it can be safely assumed that the Texans will not have a high powered passing offense. O’Brien is going to run the ball and run it a lot. In fairness, Fitzpatrick helped former Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson have a career year in 2010 with over 1000 yards receiving and 10 touchdown receptions.

The Bill O’Brien System: It’s hard to call Bill O’Brien’s offensive system a complete negative. His system likely won’t wreck Hopkins’ sophomore season in the NFL but it might hinder him from exploding. Bill O’Brien is not Josh McDaniels; the 2014 Houston Texans will not be airing it out. O’Brien has a propensity for using multiple tight end sets in order to run the ball effectively. Great news for Arian Foster, not so much for Hopkins. There are also some positives to be taken away from O’Brien’s system:

1) With a more effective running game featuring a (hopefully) healthier Arian Foster and beefier offensive line, defenses will not be so keyed in on Andre Johnson and Hopkins.

2) Hopkins is No. 2 in the reads so he likely won’t be taken off the field except in occasional three-tight-end sets.

3) O’Brien was wide receivers coach for Randy Moss and Wes Welker when both eclipsed 1000 yards with Matt Cassel under center. (There may be hope for “Fitzmagic” after all!)

Fantasy Football Value

DeAndre Hopkins has plenty of natural ability and great hands but his biggest drawback is being in a run-heavy offense with a roller-coaster journeyman quarterback. Regardless of possible setbacks, Hopkins is probably looking at pulling down 60-70 receptions and no one should be surprised to see him have a 1000-yard campaign due to volume of targets plus his 2013 average yards-per-reception of 15.4 yards.

Several pundits don’t see Hopkins eclipsing four or five touchdowns, but based on his touchdown production at Clemson and on Bill O’Brien’s offensive creativity, Hopkins will likely shoot from two touchdowns in 2013 to seven in 2014.

In traditional scoring leagues, Hopkins has an average draft position of 105, or late-ninth round in 12-team formats. Because of Hopkins’ great hands, large role in the new Texans’ offense and grasp of the playbook, I see him as a lower-tier WR2 option in 10 to 12-team traditional scoring leagues. In PPR leagues he has potential to be a bargain. Hopkins would be preferable over receivers such as Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.

Hopkins has an excellent outlook in dynasty leagues. He will likely be the No. 1 pass-catcher on the Texans next year due to Andre Johnson’s age (Dre will be 34 by then) and cap hit ($16,144,583) coupled with a lack of talent and depth in the receiving corps behind him. Hopkins is ranked in the top 40 fantasy wideouts to starting the 2015 season, but he’ll be a Top 20 WR option by the time the 2015 season rolls around.