DECLASSIFIED: Eric Ebron Week 10 Fantasy Outlook Versus Packers

shabro headshotRosterWatch Nation, we caught lightning in a bottle last week with Jeremy Langford’s 142 all-purpose yards and rushing touchdown. Chicago isn’t really considered a powerhouse offense right now but sometimes you have to try and pull out that productive player from a sloppy effort. It’s time to do more of the same this week.

Just like virtually every fantasy season, tight end is a tough spot to get consistent production at. Outside of having an elite scoring tight end such as Gronk, Tyler Eifert, Greg Olsen or Gary Barnidge (in weeks when Johnny Pee-Wee isn’t under center) you’re likely going to spend a lot of time streaming and looking for daily fantasy bargains. Well, if you’re looking for that guy to help take your team over the top, look no further.

DECLASS EBRON

The Detroit Lions have been a beautiful disaster that somehow fused together a train wreck and a dumpster fire. Matt Stafford has looked absolutely atrocious. He’s almost matched his interception total for all of last year and fantasy owners are praying he can squeeze out at least 20 touchdowns. I wonder if Stafford still believes he’s somehow above working with a private QB trainer in the offseason? Calvin Johnson is having a down year. He’s injured again and we unfortunately may be seeing an all-time great descending to a just really good player. Ameer Abdullah hasn’t had the kind of rookie season a lot of people were expecting. Golden Tate isn’t putting up anything close to his numbers from last season, either.

However, there has been one bright spot. Second-year tight end Eric Ebron seems to be coming into his own. He has not had the kind of breakout year to consider him a top 10 tight end or even an every week TE1. But he looks significantly better than last year (which isn’t saying much in itself) and is likely even improve as the season goes on. He’s one of the better options in daily fantasy right now.

I didn’t see Ebron as being gifted enough to be drafted where he was by the Lions. Had (now-fired) Martin Mayhew and company taken him in the late first round or early second, this pick would’ve looked much better. That being said, Ebron has made strides as a former high-end draft pick and he still has a high enough ceiling to one day justify that top ten status.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Eric Ebron while considering his fantasy value in Week 10 versus the Green Bay Packers defense.

640x480_DK2015_MilMaker_fooballField

Positives

– Measurables/Athleticism: At 6’4” and 250 pounds, he certainly looks the part. He’s also got the hand size and arm length to make some tough catches away from his body. He ran a 4.6 40-yard dash, so he’s got speed. Not as fast as a Vernon Davis or Travis Kelce but enough to cause linebackers some headaches. He’s so fluid as an athlete for a guy his size. His movements aren’t choppy like some tight ends.

– Matchup: The Green Bay Packers are having some troubles against tight ends. Greg Olsen did well against them last week. Their pass defense is not good but it’s worse against tight ends than against receivers. The Pack is allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers while conversely allowing the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends. If Aaron Rodgers looks like he’s going to hang 40 on the Lions defense, Ebron could be in for some serious garbage-time production or even a shootout-bonanza.

– Route running: He’s a smooth and crisp route runner. I think his capability to run most of the route tree this year is contributing to his overall improvement.

– Explosive potential: He hasn’t had a monster game yet but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. He has the athletic ability, the role in the offense, and might get even more opportunity if Calvin Johnson is limited or unable to play.

Negatives

– Health: He can’t stay healthy. It seems he’s always banged up or limited from some injury. This won’t be a problem in daily fantasy (unless he’s hurt early in the game and swindles you for no points) but it has to be a factor to consider in redraft.

– Drops: He’s got a 9.7% drop rate. That’s not Devin Funchess bad but it’s not good either. It seems like most of his drops are concentration drops a la Justin Hunter Disease. Luckily, Stafford seems to trust him anyways.

– Blocking: He looks better than last year in the blocking department but he’s got a ways to go. Speaking of drops, the stone-handed king of all Butterfingers, Brandon Pettigrew, still has to be used too often in probable run situations. If Ebron’s blocking can become just above average he actually becomes significantly more dangerous.

– Offense: As I mentioned previously this offense has been worse than bad. While this isn’t necessarily damning (see Jeremy Langford last week) it isn’t always conducive to great performance.

DECLASSIFIED: Eric Ebron’s Week 9 Fantasy Outlook

He has the potential to be a TE1 for the rest of the season. Notice, I said potential.

Right now, he’s in the top half of the league in scoring for tight ends. Not bad considering being limited at times from injury. Don’t take this as me saying he is as good or better than these guys but he has three receiving touchdowns which matches or beats Travis Kelce, Martellus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Cameron, and Jimmy Graham.

Thanks to a pretty rough week against the Chiefs, he’s pretty widely available in redraft leagues, so now is a good time to get him before what has the potential to be a great game against the Packers.

He’s only $3300 in DraftKings this week. That’s only $300 above the minimum. He’s cheaper than Martellus Bennett who is going up against a tough St. Louis Rams defense who has only given up one touchdown to a tight end this year. Ebron is only $5300 in FanDuel which is still cheaper than Bennett and Delanie Walker. I think he’s a great bargain with huge upside this week.

All factors considered, I would expect Ebron to bring down seven receptions for 70 yards and a receiving touchdown in Week 10 versus the Green Bay Packers!

3 Comments

  1. Can’t wait for show tonight! Won’t be able to call tonight but I need some START/SIT advice across 3 of my leagues! Please and thank you!

    1) 12 Team Standard; Pick 2 RB and 1 FLEX –
    Martin vs. DAL
    Sims vs. DAL
    Duke Johnson @PIT
    Hurns @BAL

    2) 10 Team PPR; Pick 1 FLEX
    Duke Johnson @PIT
    Andrews vs. CAR

    3) 14 Team 0.5 PPR; Pick 1 WR and 1 FLEX –
    Sanders vs. KC
    Hurns @BAL
    Andrews vs. CAR
    Sims vs. DAL
    James Jones vs. DET

  2. Need start sit advice in my full point ppr league I need one back
    Bernard
    Hill
    Yeldon
    Also need one wide out
    Cooks or Mike Evans

Leave a Reply