Week 10 DFS Strategy and Top Picks By Position (DraftKings, FanDuel)
Week 10 is upon us, which means that for all teams, the season is halfway over. As a sure fire plus for fantasy owners, bye weeks are also on their way out.
Finally, we’ve hit that time of the season where picking a solid player for your fantasy lineup is no longer a puzzle, and the picture of who is a viable option for your team becomes clearer. Statistical trends start to form, health of the player becomes obvious, and how your team will perform week-to-week finally gets close to predictable.
Our jobs as DFS analysts doesn’t change, however, as we strive to provide fantasy owners with the best data and stats available, used to choose that perfect player at that perfect salary. Without further ado, here are my top picks from both DraftKings and FanDuel, selected to help owners to the finish line.
Kristen’s top picks for DraftKings:
Aaron Rodgers, QB- $7,500
It’s no secret that Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, making his distinct mark on NFL history. However, Rodgers is rarely usable in DFS, especially this year, as he has been more of a steady and true option than the flashy player he’s been in previous seasons which his pricing reflects. This week, Rodgers makes for a good cash play, taking on divisional rivals the Detroit Lions at home. Statistically speaking, the Pack plays better at home, especially against a defense like Detroit’s, who’s been all-but-torched by opposing quarterbacks this season. The Lions defense, ranked 30th in pass defense, gives up the fourth-most DraftKing points per game and is the No.3 QB matchup of the week per the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. Detroit is allowing opposing quarterbacks to sport a collective 111.1 passer rating, marking the second-highest opposing QBR in the NFL. Rodgers will need to step up production due to a rapidly deteriorating defense and he shouldn’t have a problem with this positive matchup.
Kirk Cousins, QB- $5,200
This week, Cousins represents the best GPP play in the lower-tiered price range for starting quarterbacks outside of possibly Blake Bortles, who we’ll discuss. Last week, Cousins made an honorable attempt against the hard-to-beat Patriots, throwing for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Owners tend to forget about Cousins, and opt for more stable options, but Cousins has posted decent numbers so far this season, completing 66.9 percent of attempts (206 of 308) for 1,954 yards and 10 touchdowns. This week, Cousins faces the Saints, who not only rank dead last in pass defense, but have allowed a league high 24 passing touchdowns. The No.1 QB matchup on the RosterWatch Week 10 Matchup Tool, The Saints gave up six touchdowns to Eli Manning and four touchdowns to Marcus Mariota, so there’s no reason to expect much less from Cousins, so long as his receivers can hold on to the ball.
Darren McFadden, RB- $4,900
This week, Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram make for stronger plays, but McFadden is a good replacement if you’re looking for salary relief. With Joseph Randle out of the picture, McFadden has dominated the backfield, and since attaining the starter position, has managed at least 26 touches in each game, averaging 111.0 rushing yards, and three catches for 21.3 yards. Even against nightmare running back matchups in Philadelphia and Seattle, he still managed to post solid production. This week, he’s facing a solid Buccaneers run defense, but at his low price, and if played in full PPR, McFadden is likely to hit value based on volume alone. The Bucs have been historically terrible against the run in recent years despite improvement in 2015, so regression to the mean could come into play at some point.
DeAngelo Williams, RB- $6,500
Williams won’t make a good contrarian play for GPP lineups this week as he’ll be one of the highest-owned players in the industry, but he is a good option for cash games. In his three starts this season, he finished 12th, first and first among fantasy tailbacks, and when combined with Antonio Brown, saw 505 yards from scrimmage in Week 9. Brown’s stock will likely take a hit, after it was announced Ben Roethlisberger faces another injury, so Williams is the next guy to carry the production load. With Landry Jones under center, the Steelers will attack the Browns’ 32nd-ranked run defense relentlessly, which means that Williams’ workload will likely be huge. The Browns have given up a league high 138.5 rushing yard per game to opposing backfields this season and are the No.2 RB matchup on the Week 10 RosterWatch Matchup Tool, making Williams one of the safest options in DFS, flashing a reasonable price tag.
Randall Cobb, WR- $6,700
Cobb plays the overwhelming majority of snaps in the slot, and see lots of short looks from one of the league’s best quarterback, which makes him a DFS dream; especially this week, as Cobb is slated to match up against a struggling rookie nickel-corner in Quandre Diggs. In Week 9, Cobb saw 12 targets – his most since Week 3 – and appears to be over his pesky shoulder-area injury. Davante Adams has made a healthy return, which should drag some of the defensive focus off of Cobb, boosting his production significantly. Cobb will continue to be heavily involved in the passing attack, especially this week against Detroit, who struggles to contain slot receivers. As one of the most heavily targeted receivers for the Packers week-to-week, owners can make a safe bet on Cobb.
Allen Robinson, WR- $6,700
The second-year wideout is starting his breakout tour, by competing 40 catches for 707 yards and six touchdowns this season, making him the seventh-highest scoring wide receiver in PPR formats. Robinson, along with Allen Hurns, sees 45 percent of Blake Bortles’ pass attempts, and with Hurns’ recent foot injury, Robinson could see at least a 30 percent market-share of Bortles’ attempts if Hurns is unable to return and/or limited. This week, Robinson faces a Ravens secondary that gives up the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers and the No. 1 matchup on the RosterWatch Matchup Tool. Only the Chiefs have allowed more average yards (207.9) than Baltimore to wideouts. Baltimore has also given up the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season, putting Robinson in the perfect spot to capitalize on bad defense. He will be the most heavily owned WR on the slate for Week 10, but he’ll be a dangerous player to fade.
Jordan Reed, TE- $4,600
Injuries were the only thing holding Reed back from large production to start 2015 (and in his entire pro career, honestly), and now that he’s healthy, he’s ready to work. Once the Redskins get into the red zone, that work pays off, as Reed is a target monster, seeing over 30 percent of targets inside the 10-yard line this season. The Saints have allowed the most receiving touchdowns in the league this year, making Reed perfectly priced to plug in as a low-risk, high-payout option.
Rob Gronkowski, TE- $8,000
As I’ve mentioned in earlier weeks, Gronkowski has a price tag that makes him a risky, and hard to swallow, play. However, that’s not the case this week, as the Patriots face the Giants, who give up the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends. Gronkowski is on pace for 1,386 receiving yards this year, which makes him a splendid choice against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (308) this season. The Patriots’ secondary could have trouble against Eli and Beckham, causing a larger need for the typical Brady passing game, which means Gronkowski will be targeted often. With Dion Lewis out for the season, the Patriots will look to get other intermediate targets the football in space which translates to big action for Gronk. If you can afford him, Gronkowski is your safest choice for tight ends this week.
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Kristen’s top picks for FanDuel:
Drew Brees, QB- $8,600
Brees has been dominant in his last two starts; in Week 8 he tallied 500 yards and seven (7!) touchdowns, while in Week 9 he managed 387 yards and three touchdowns. During those two weeks, he racked up a combined 78.68 fantasy points, and his owners were thrilled. Better yet, in Week 10, Brees will face a weak Washington secondary, and he’s likely to have a huge game capitalizing on the struggling defense. The Saints defense also continues to hemorrhage points, which means owners can expect Brees to throw early and often.
Blake Bortles, QB- $7,800
The Jacksonville quarterback has been slowly, but surely, making his presence known this year. Against the Jets last week, Bortles had his career best outing, grossing 381 passing yards. His numbers are certainly following an upward trend, as he’s thrown for at least 298 yards in four of his last five starts, which puts him on pace for 4,400 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Fantasy owners are snatching him quick. Blake’s mobility in the pocket allows him to extend his plays, which will help this week against the Ravens, who rank 29th in pass defense with 283.9 yards per game allowed. For the production value, Bortles is a good value play in any format. The Bortles/Robinson stack will be up there in Week 10 with Rodgers/Cobb stack as far as upside, but comes at a much cheaper price.
James Starks, RB- $6,000
There’s always a risk in choosing a running back from Green Bay, as all the running backs share the workload on a team that chooses to pass more than not. However, Starks has seen a decent bump in production with the absence of Eddie Lacy, and even with Lacy back (and looking overweight), Starks has had his fair share of the carries. In Week 9, Starks carried the ball 10 times for 39 yards, and six catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Starks averages a decent 4.3 yards per carry, but often moonlights as a solid receiver, bringing in 19 of 25 attempts for 167 yards and two touchdowns. Starks will always be a matchup dependent option, with Green Bay constantly changing their plan of attack based on who they play that week, but he makes for a viable option if the staff continues to limit Lacy’s play.
Todd Gurley, RB- $9,200
Gurley has a rather high price tag, but he makes for a solid, and safe, cash game staple. The high salary is vindicated, however, with Gurley producing at least 100 yards in each of his five starts. Last week, he was held to a lowly 89 yards and one touchdown on 24 carries, but when glancing at the last three weeks, Gurley ran the ball 63 times for 350 yards and four touchdowns. This week, Gurley will face the Chicago Bears’ defense, who allow 121.6 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. The Bears’ defense ranks 31st overall, but their run defense is respectable. Gurley gets the ball a ton, so he’s likely to see some high numbers again. Just don’t expect the Bears to let it happen easily.
Stefon Diggs, WR- $6,600
Before last week’s outing of only three catches for 42 yards, Diggs completed at least six catches in four consecutive games. During his last four games, Diggs had 22 catches for 374 yards and two touchdowns. The loss of Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater quieted Diggs production, but Bridgewater now seems fine. Though Minnesota loves to rely on the rush game, Diggs is a cheap option who is already one of the best receivers in the league, and is facing a very beatable Raiders secondary that a player with a similar skillset (Antonio Brown) broke every Steelers team-receiving record against just last week. Keep rolling with Diggs until his pricing catches up to anywhere near his true value.
Brandon LaFell, WR- $6,200
LaFell owners saw inviting upside indicators after LaFell was targeted 24 times during the last three games, leading the team with 15.8 yards per reception. His 24 targets is only one behind Julian Edelman, and five behind the team target leader, Rob Gronkowski. Though, it’s important to note that LaFell has the highest average air yards per target in the trio. On the not-so-bright side, he generates far too many drops with all that opportunity. LaFell enters WR2 territory this week, though, facing a Giants defense that has allowed four receivers to top 100 yards. He’ll be worth a hard look if digging deep for cheaper WR options.
Kyle Rudolph, TE- $4,700
Unlike Diggs, Rudolph’s production is consistent with or without the presence of Bridgewater. By that, I mean, he consistently doesn’t get much organic scoring, but is always a threat to score a touchdown. Although Rudolph should be used primarily in touchdown-dependent fantasy plays, his yardage has shown positive indicators of being on the increase. The Vikings tend to give the ball most to Adrian Peterson, but it’s likely he’ll see less production against the Raiders this week, who (very surprisingly) have only given up rushing touchdowns in two games this season (Nice job, Del Rio!) On the flipside, the Raiders defense has allowed a league-high nine touchdowns to tight ends this year. Any Viking who catches balls will be a safe bet for Week 10.
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Diggs, M. Bryant, Doug Martin, or Allen Hurns in a PPR? Pick 2. Assume Hurns is healthy
Diggs and Martin
NonPPR, need 2: Cooks, E. Sanders, Diggs, Green-Beckham
Diggs and Cooks
cooks, diggs