RosterWatch Nation Father Time is undefeated.

Not like Patriots-2007-undefeated with an asterisk; but really undefeated. And Father Time has come for Peyton Manning with a vengeance. We may never see Manning take another snap again – and at the very least he is clearly no longer the player he was even last year. It’s a sad day when you see a legend descend in performance from elite to good to downright awful. Kind of like the day you realize you can beat up your dad.

But like a phoenix out of the ashes of Manning’s Hall of Fame career comes former Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler. Osweiler got the nod to start, at least in Week 11 and likely longer, while Manning is dealing with a myriad of injuries. This week will go a long way in determining the future of the quarterback position in Denver.

The Broncos, after years of turmoil under center, were set at the game’s most important position for the last three seasons before this one. Manning has been a train wreck outside of a few games. The 39 year old is looking about 59. It’s time to see what Osweiler can do.

Three big-time fantasy quarterbacks are on a bye this week: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Drew Brees. This week, Osweiler represents an intriguing option at quarterback. It’s going to be extremely interesting to watch him play over the next week or more and see if he can keep Manning on the bench. Osweiler has less than 100 regular-season snaps so there’s a lot to determine about his play. He might be a bit of a gamble in Week 11 but I love his upside.

Let’s take a look at the positives and negatives for Brock Osweiler while considering his fantasy value in Week 11 versus the Chicago Bears defense.

Positives

– Arm Talent: He can air it out and make all the throws. I don’t think his arm is up there with Joe Flacco’s but he’s got enough ability that he typically negates the fact that he throws off of his back foot a lot. He can put touch on the ball, especially in the intermediate and short game, which is a rare quality in a big-arm quarterback. Considering his length he’s got a pretty compact release. He’s adopted the Phillip Rivers-style ¾ release. It looks awkward as hell but it works. He’s got a low release point but his height offsets that.

– Weapons: Osweiler is lucky to take over for an offense that has a great wide receiver tandem in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas is still one of the best receivers in the league and could benefit from a youth infusion from Osweiler. Owen Daniels is about a million years old but he’s still getting it done as an NFL player if not necessarily for fantasy. Osweiler’s such a natural fit in a Gary Kubiak offense. The wild card is Vernon Davis. Despite coming up in years, Davis is still immensely talented. He’s visibly frustrated with his role in the offense right now (like he has been every week since 2013) but Week 11 could be a breakout week for him (again).

– Coaching: Gary Kubiak’s gotten some stellar play out of some mediocre-to-good quarterbacks in the past. He does a great job of getting quarterbacks on the move and luckily, Osweiler plays really well on the move. He’s not incredibly fast so you don’t have to worry about Denver running any read-option. After having to force him into the offense following Manning’s interception explosion, Osweiler did not seem fully ready. He’s been working all week and been under the excellent tutelage of Kubiak.

– Motivation: When it comes to fantasy football I typically try to leave the emotion out of it. But if you watch any interview with Osweiler you can see the desire and even the need to achieve greatness. Then again, Tim Tebow was hyper motivated so take from it what you will. But Osweiler has been biding his time on the bench and wants to fulfill the decree of his own tattoo: “Leave Your Legacy”.

Negatives

– Height: Good lord he’s tall. He’s 6’8” and the tallest quarterback to start in the NFL in the last 20 years. Ronnie Hillman could almost fit inside his shirt pocket. The unfortunate news is quarterbacks over 6’5” have typically not faired well. Joe Flacco has been the exception to the rule. Every action from moving in the pocket to scrambling become more elongated. Exhibit A: Mike Glennon. So will Oz be more Flacco or more Ryan Mallett?

– Matchup: He’s not going against the 1985-version by any means, but the Chicago Bears have a formidable pass-defense right now. They’re allowing the 12th fewest fantasy points in the league right now to quarterbacks and rank a serviceable 17th versus QBs per the Week 11 RosterWatch Matchup Tool. This is no cupcake first start served up for the young Bronco.

– Running Game: The Broncos just can’t establish a solid and consistent running game which is fairly shocking in a Gary Kubiak offense. They’re averaging only 86 yards per game. They have the fifth-worst rushing attack in the league and it shows. They have to get it going this week. Young quarterbacks without a solid running game face an uphill battle.

– “Rookie” Nerves: Osweiler has been in the league for a few years but this is his first start in the regular season. There’s a lot riding on this game for Osweiler and he has the potential to try to do too much and make mistakes.

DECLASSIFIED: Brock Osweiler’s Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

Osweiler can end up on either end of the quarterback spectrum. He could be a QB1 the rest of the season or you could find yourself putting him back on the waiver wire as quickly as you picked him up. He’s certainly a gamble but I still feel like his floor is high enough to warrant a roster-add and his ceiling is high enough to hope he might be able to replace a guy like Andrew Luck. If you have someone like Brian Hoyer as your backup I think a move like this makes sense.

He’s available in over 80% of redraft leagues, so now might be the time to get him before he shows promise against the Bears and gets scooped up.

He’s only $5000 in DraftKings this week. He literally could not be any cheaper. Taking a risk and playing Osweiler will still cost you $2500 less than playing Aaron Rodgers against the 3rd-best defense in the league in Minnesota.

I like the play but it’s important to temper expectations. I’d like him a bit more if the game was in Denver.
All factors considered, I expect Osweiler to throw for about 250 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 versus the Chicago Bears!