Associated Press

Trashman’s Best Bets to Score: Week 3

Best RB and WR Bets to Score in Week 3

Week 3 is here, and with it comes a bevy of potentially fruitful matchups. These players are my best bets to capitalize on their pairings at the RB and WR positions in Week 3…

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Titans
It took a miserable Week 1, but the Titans figured out what to do on offense, now that their talented former OC Arthur Smith is gone, and that’s to give the ball to Derrick Henry ad nauseum. Henry touched the ball 41 times in Week 2, racking up 237 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs in the process against the Seahawks in a big win for Tennessee. He’ll face an Indianapolis team this week that he scored 3 TDs on in one of their 2020 meetings, the most he scored in a single game that year.

Latavius Murray, Ravens
Murray has scored in both games this season for his Ravens team, despite only touching the ball 10 and 9 nines in those two games. It’s a crowded backfield in Baltimore, but Murray’s usage increased from Week 1 to Week 2 from 31% of snaps to 36%, and he should find plenty of room to run against Detroit this week. The Lions were the worst team in the NFL in 2020 at defending their end-zone from RBs, and through 2 games of 2021 they’re the 2nd worst. With a staggering TD dependency of 65.22%, Murray is poised to keep up his scoring streak.

Chris Carson, Seahawks
Carson has the Seattle backfield on lock, carrying the ball 13 of 14 total carries in Week 2 against Tennessee and scoring twice. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that he’ll get the bulk of backfield touches again in Week 3 against a Minnesota team that’s giving up 110 yards to opposing teams on the ground this season. Carson is running with a TD dependency of 48.39% right now, and Seattle will visit the red-zone plenty this week in what should be a high-scoring game.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Ekeler isn’t known for his scoring per se, but he’s found the end-zone once already this season, and more importantly, he’s facing a Chiefs team this week that’s given up a league worst 7 rushing TDs in only 2 games. With the backfield behind him in flux from week to week, Ekeler is the best bet to find rushing gold for the Chargers in what should be another very high-scoring competition.

Aaron Jones, Packers
The Packers have discovered a winning recipe in getting the ball to Aaron Jones, after falling flat in Week 1. Jones scored 4 times against the Lions on Monday night, to give him the league lead, and he’ll go up against a 49ers team this week that’s allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs so far this season. Jones is taking his staggering 63.66% TD dependency into a juicy matchup that is set for him to continue to find scoring success.

Wide Receiver

Marvin Jones, Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has found a safety blanket in Jones, who has been on the field 91% and 88% in the first 2 games, more than any other offensive skill player. In that time, Jones is averaging 10 targets a game, and he’s scored in both contests. His 47.62% TD dependency is highest for any WR with at least 20 targets this season, and he’s in line to find the end-zone at least once against an Arizona team that the Jaguars are going to have to score often against to keep up with.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
It’s a matchup made in heaven for Tyler Lockett and the Seahawks in Week 3, when they face a Vikings team that’s giving up 2.5 TDs per game to opposing WRs. They’ve given up the 2nd most points to WRs overall this season, and Lockett, who has scored 3 times already in only 2 games, is primed to add to that total. Leading his team in targets and TDs, Lockett is as sure a bet to score as anyone on the field in this matchup.

Cooper Kupp, Rams
Kupp and his QB Matt Stafford are BFFs on and off the field for the Rams, and it shows. Kupp is averaging 8 catches for 135 yards and 1.5 TDs over 2 games this season, and I don’t expect his dominant ways to change this week against a Tampa Bay team that has given up the 3rd most points to WRs this season – Teams have had to put up points to stay in games with them. Kupp has a TD dependency of 40.36%, the 2nd highest of any WR with over 20 targets, so count on him reaching paydirt at home against prolific Tom Brady and company.

Mike Williams, Chargers
Williams is hitting his stride as the primary red-zone target for Justin Herbert. In fact, Williams has caught both of Hebert’s TD passes he’s thrown this season. No WR with over 20 targets has a higher TD dependency(40.96%) than Williams this season, and there are few corners who can contest with Williams for the ball when it’s in the air. Even against the Chiefs, who have not allowed many passing TDs this season – Probably because they’ve allowed so many rushing TDs, Williams stands a team best chance to score through the air in what will be a high-flying affair.

Adam Thielen, Vikings
Tied for the league lead in WR TDs(3), Thielen is a scoring machine for the Vikings as their primary red-zone target. He has the highest TD dependency(57.88%) of any WR with over 11 targets this season, meaning that he makes his targets count big time. This week, he’ll go up against a Seattle team that hasn’t yet found its footing on defense and will have a hard time covering Thielen, Justin Jefferson and hot slot-man KJ Osborn all at once. This projects to be a high-scoring game, and be sure that QB Kirk Cousins will continue to look Thielen’s way early and often in the red-zone.

31 Comments

  1. ↓ Post By Derrike

    Got a trade question in a 14 team .5 ppr and 3 keeper league..

    Kamara is being shopped. Would you offer Lamb and Damian Harris for Kamara?

    My RBs and WR are as follows (start 2 rb and 3 wr and a flex)

    Aaron Jones, Damian Harris, Ty’Son Williams, Rountree and Trenton cannon

    Julio, Lamb, Boyd, Fuller, Hardman and Terrace Marshall

    Thanks guys!

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      No, I think Lamb might be your best WR.

  2. ↓ Post By dankc2

    My team in 12 team standard League: QB’s Murray, Fields RB’s Zeke, Jacobs, Carson, Javonte Williams. WR’s McLauren, ARob, J Chase, Diontae Johnson, Aiyuk TE Tonyan. Would you drop anyone to pickup Michel?

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      you could afford to lose aiyuk, but i still probably wouldn’t do it.

  3. ↓ Post By D Ron

    With ab out with Covid. Ppr what should my 2 flex be? I have Sutton, Elijah mitchel, Hollywood brown, or fuller
    Pick 2

  4. ↓ Post By trelite

    Would you trade Calvin Ridley for Joe Mixon in a 10 team pot league?

    wideouts: devante adams, cee see lamb, Calvin ridley, Marvin Jones jr,
    Running backs: Gibson, d. Harris, Tyson Williams, Tony pollard, Melvin Gordon, latavius murray

    1. ↓ Post By trelite

      10 team PPR I’m 0-2. Would you trade Calvin Ridley for Joe Mixon?

      QB: Dak Prescott

      Running backs: Gibson, Damien Harris, Melvin Gordon, Ty’son Williams, Tony pollard, latavius Murray

      Wide receivers: Devante Adams, Calvin Ridley, Cee Dee Lamb, Julio Jones, Marvin Jones Jr,

      TE: Logan Thomas

    2. ↓ Post By Trashman

      only if you can start 3 rbs

  5. ↓ Post By jrcs851315

    Would you drop Gerald Everett for M Williams, Hooper or Freiemuth? Cook isn’t available and I’m not sure if Everett’s increase in routes is a sign of things to come

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      i dropped everett for williams in one of my leagues.

  6. ↓ Post By libowskee@yahoo.com

    FAAB Question…. In a 12 team Superflex league. Someone just dropped Wentz and I have Dak, Fields, Tua and Davis Mills. Who would you drop and how much FAAB would you use to pick up Wentz off Waivers???

    1. ↓ Post By Trashman

      i’d drop mills, no more than 17 for him.

  7. ↓ Post By libowskee@yahoo.com

    Also, would you trade Dak for Herbert Straight up??? Herbert seems to be getting alot of volume, just hasn’t gotten enough TDs yet. After week 2, the Cowboys may try to balance they’re attack moving forward with Zeke/Pollard… Would love your thoughts on the 2 ROS…

  8. ↓ Post By Trashman

    herbert may be having a little sophomore slump, which we sometimes see when opposing teams have a season of video to prepare with. we know what we get with dak. part of the reason dallas ran the ball that much was to try to keep the chargers offense off the field, and the chargers have a solid secondary. there’s no way they don’t utilize their bevy of wrs to the fullest as often as possible though. it may end up being a wash, but i don’t think this is the dak we see most weeks.

  9. ↓ Post By wolfie4wvu@me.com

    With AB out I need 1 of these in a PPR: Osborn, Aiyuk, Pascal, Hardman, E. Moore. If Wentz was healthy I think Pascal would be the pick but not sure now.

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I like Osborn or Hardman – look at the matchup

  10. ↓ Post By christopherdavidhui@gmail.com

    Do you think either Jordan Akins or Pharoahe Brown are sneaky TE plays this week in a 1pt. ppr? I currently have Cole Kmet, so it’s not like I’m setting the world on fire at TE.

    Thanks!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      I would try to upgrade TE, but I cannot recommend either of those two bottom feeders as a replacement

  11. ↓ Post By RockyCrab

    Ppr league, Damien Harris or courtland sutton
    And also Daniel Jones or dak
    Thanks!

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Dak

      Probably Sutton in PPR

  12. ↓ Post By Incognito

    With Brissett starting in Miami do you think the Vegas D is a better start than the Steelers D.? thanks

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Don’t think so

  13. ↓ Post By vdubnhead

    Courtland Goff Club – 2 Myles [1-1]
    10 team 0.5PPR
    currently 7 on my 6-slot bench, gotta drop 1 for a starting K this sunday…
    RB: m.carter / j.williams DET / j.williams DEN / j.white / m.gaskin
    WR: j.chase / c.sutton

    james white? michael carter? someone else?

  14. ↓ Post By great1nel@yahoo.com

    Should I claim Brandon Aiyuk from waivers?

    1. ↓ Post By Byron Lambert

      Yes

  15. ↓ Post By AbnerLofton

    .5 PPR

    Would you drop terrace Marshall for Bateman? And beat the rush for him if he comes back?

    Or I could drop Dobbins; but I’ve been holding him for a last round keeper next year

  16. ↓ Post By Chelo Méndez

    0.5 PPR – 12 team – 0-2:

    QBs: Mahomes, Fields
    RBs: Kamara, Sanders
    WRs: Jefferson, Sutton, Marquise, OBJ, Pittman, Rondale
    TE: Andrews

    What’s up RW Nation! So I’m “stacked” at WR and clearly thin at RB. Which RBs should I be targeting with my plethora of receivers? Any trade examples?

    Thanks again!

  17. ↓ Post By dankc2

    Trade E Miller and Pittman for either ARob or DJ Moore?
    1 pt ppr and my other RB’s are Zeke, Gibson, Davonte Williams, D Harris and Carter.

  18. ↓ Post By larrymac

    boys

    i picked up the carolina def to block my opponet from getting them i have the dever def
    the more i look at carolina matchup tonight i am thinking about starting them and holding on to them

    what do you guys think?

    Lone Wolf 0-2

  19. ↓ Post By sdboor

    My team Play 1QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Flex 0-2
    QB Tannehill
    RB AKamara, MSanders, JRobinson, ChaseEdmunds, MDavis EMitchell
    WR DHopkins, KAllen, JaChase, AntonioBrown, RoMoore
    IR position JLandry (IR)
    TE GEverett

    A coach dropped TSermon and on Waivers I have EMitchell
    Should I pick Sermon up and drop Who?

Leave a Reply