Backup RBs With Upside: Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Tarik Cohen
Backup RBs With Upside: Duke Johnson, Tevin Coleman, Antonio Gibson
by Alan Seslowsky
The 2020 fantasy football season is going to be an experience unlike any other to date. There is going to be less information due to lack of offseason rookie progress reports, veteran injury updates, and even “best shape of his life” tweets. Fantasy analysts are going to have to piece together clues based on context to make the best possible informed opinions. In addition, fantasy players will need to know more players further down depth charts, as we have accepted Covid-19 could make its way into our plans at a moment’s notice. Lucky for you RosterWatch Nation, we will have you covered in our Pro-Membership section of RosterWatch.com. Below are a few situations RosterWatch is monitoring closely with the running back market.
The Tampa Bay Backfield
Ever since Tampa Bay drafted rookie RB Ke’shawn Vaugh this past Spring, the fantasy community split into two factions. Some believed Ronald Jones was going to be the primary fantasy asset for The Bucs, where others thought Vaughn was going to shove Jones out of the way quickly. This week the situation grew more complicated with the addition of veteran LeSean McCoy. “Shady” McCoy is past his prime but his signing is a reason to question the new depth chart. There is reason to believe that McCoy was signed to fill the pass-catching role loosely occupied by Dare Ogunbowale. Head Coach, Bruce Arians, is on record saying that he prefers an RB with a three-down skill-set. Also of note, Bruce Arians is a giant liar about his plans for running backs. Lastly, Vaughn was added to the “Covid-19” list which is certain to push his ADP back a couple of rounds. Some sharp experts like recent RosterWatch podcast guest JJ Zachariason are “buying the dip” on Vaughn.
Identifying Difference-Making Players
Once again referencing RosterWatch podcast #270, guest JJ Zachariason and our co-founder, Alex Dunlap, talked through a targeted strategy for identifying difference-making players that could reveal themselves during the course of the NFL season. It is easier to project a running back rather than a WR or TE for weekly touches given the nature of the position. Using this premise, the players that have the optimal profile to emerge as a league difference-maker, are the backup running backs on the teams that have starting RBs with question marks. The “question mark” RBs are mostly found in the 5th-7th rounds of most drafts. Some examples of the starter and backups are:
- David Johnson —> Duke Johnson
- Raheem Mostert —> Tevin Coleman
- David Montgomery —> Tarik Cohen
- Derrius Guice —> Antonio Gibson (since the podcast, Guice has been waived and Gibson’s ADP has skyrocketed)
It is noteworthy that all of the backups to these starters we have lower confidence levels in are pass-catching RBs, a key to their upside in PPR leagues.
James Conner Is The “Mendoza Line”
James Conner’s early August ADP is 48 overall or RB18. He is the bridge between RBs we have confidence in and the runners with question marks we identified above. A useful exercise is to look back at ADP from the previous season in order to understand the market’s perception of a player. We can then examine what has changed for that player’s circumstances and then form an opinion if the player is valued properly or not. In August 2019 James Conner was a fringe first-round fantasy pick. He was coming off a top 12 RB finish in 2018. Injuries derailed his 2019 season. The Steelers added a fourth-round RB in Anthony McFarland, but that may be more of an indictment on the faith the Steelers have in the backups rather than Conner. The Steelers under Mike Tomlin’s leadership have deployed a workhorse running back. James Conner comes with risk but his ADP suggests he is a value and should be targeted at or slightly ahead of ADP. After Conner is off the board, the uncertainty at running back increases exponentially.
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Can a 12 team cheat sheet also be used for a 10 team league? I don’t see an issue since we are dealing with rankings. Thanks
Yes, it should work fine
12 team keeper league
.5 ppr and .5 per completion for QBs
Keep:
Chris Godwin or Nick Chubb in 4th round
Or
Kyler Murray in 9th
I’d probably go with Chubb—
*Chubb and Godwin are almost back to back on V1.2 of the std/.5ppr sheet that is about to drop- Chubb a tiny micro hair higher — this is a super close call. I prob go w/ Chubb
Abner:
I agree with Byron, Chubb should be more valuable in .5 PPR. He will be one of the favorites for most rushing yards in the NFL.
Murray great value, but there will be qbs at almost every part of the draft you like.
Chubb or Godwin is equal and at their value you will likely want to keep them too as they are young. Kyler would be a keeper for me in a superflex league with 2 quarterbacks but in a 12 team there will always be value at qb. I see Kyler go in the 5th round most drafts and the other 2 in the second. I might keep the rb if the league at was in valued them more.
Also forgot to mention that in qb stat increases you can throw them out most of the time as all qb’s share the bonus.
good morning — Keeper question for 10 team league/ I can keep one.
Godwin-2nd round; Ertz-4th round; ingram 5th round or A.robinson 7th round.
thanks
Incognito:
First off, congrats on putting together such a beast of a keeper squad. No bad options here. That said A-Rob is the player I’d keep. He seems to be QB-proof. He gets you the numbers year in and out. Great value too.
In a 10 teamer I seem to be able to grab Godwin in the 2cd, Ertz in the 4th, and Ingram in the 5th if I want to most of the time. Alan is right that A. Rob is the value here in the 7th when he normally goes in the top of the 3rd. Also with keepers it is a great sense of flexibility to have a WR 2 with WR 1 upside to put in a slot and then go running back heavy or even grab a Kelce or Lamar Jackson without hurting your lineup. I only mention this strategy as in 10 teamers the talent stretches more and what is left in waivers is really good flex options. Being able to predict a player who will be top 3 is the key to the rb and wr positions. Getting Joe Mixon or Chubb for instance seems strong but if they are RB 8 and RB 6 at the end of the year you might lose to a CMC and Lamar Jackson squad taking last years numbers. In 12 and 14 teamers you need the trashman. In 10 teamers you need a crystal ball and the magical cheat sheet.
Well said OldSchool! lol