Players Likely To Beat ADP: Mark Ingram and Odell Beckham
Players Likely To Beat ADP: Mark Ingram and Odell Beckham
by Alan Seslowsky
When you play fantasy football long enough, you quickly realize the name of the game is drafting players that will outperform their average draft position. We all dream of drafting that 12th round RB that ends up a league winning pick. That type of lottery ticket pick is rare. A more likely path to beating ADP is trying to identify players getting drafted as WR2s or RB2s that can finish as a WR1 or RB1. Of course, any player could have a career year out of the blue. It was a decade ago that journeyman WR Brandon Lloyd aka Spiderman, who had a career average of 550 yards per season, “broke out” in his ninth year. In 2010 Lloyd finished with a 77/1448/11 line. Below are a few players that have a plausible path to beating ADP, and helping you win your league.
Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP 29 WR13)
Simply reading the headline of this column, Odell Beckham is the clear and obvious pick. Odell’s ADP fluctuates between WR11 and WR13 weekly. It demonstrates that part of the market is clearly still in on Beckham like 2019 was a fluke, others are in on Beckham at his 2020 ADP, and some are not drafting OBJ this season. There is no question that Odell is young enough to recapture his status as the most dynamic playmaker in the league. RosterWatch consistently cautions our readers that WRs changing teams may have a rocky first season. It’s been well documented how dysfunctional the entire Browns offense was last year under cockamamie first-time HC Freddie Kitchens. In year two with Cleveland, Odell Beckham has a legitimate chance to beat ADP and be a fantasy difference-maker.
Mark Ingram (ADP 63 RB24)
Mark Ingram finished as RB11 in 2019. He was the clear cut starting RB in the Ravens offense that was supercharged due to Lamar Jackson‘s arrival as the full-time starter. Ingram’s value was boosted due to his likely unrepeatable five receiving TDs. The draft market is not drafting Ingram at last year’s production tax, as he is going to be 31 years old in December. The Ravens also selected highly touted RB prospect, JK Dobbins, in the second round of the NFL draft. We need to remember the lead running back in Baltimore is still Mark Ingram. In a shortened offseason, rookies are likely to struggle early in the season. Mark Ingram’s path to 10+ TDs is easy to see, and it is rare to find that kind of upside at his current ADP.
Kenyan Drake (ADP 12 RB8)
Readers of RosterWatch content this offseason have probably noticed that Kenyan Drake has been highlighted in many articles and videos. His ADP is on the rise AGAIN, so it’s time for a Drake update. Last we hit on him, he was ADP 14 overall. He has ticked up to RB8 passing Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, and is nipping at Joe Mixon. There is still resistance to Drake, as he is not the typical veteran first-round RB, who traditionally has at least one season of dominant production under his belt. Drake’s dominance was a six week run at the end of 2019. It is hard to deny that when Drake had opportunities he has come through. Even at his elevated ADP, Drake could beat his cost, although he is no longer the bargain he once was.
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Been fighting the decision of Drake vs Chubb in 1.0 PPR Keeper League (we get to hold on to 1 player, and these are my best)….this may tilt it Drake’s way. Thanks.
DJ, that is one of the hardest choices to make early on. And I think there is a clear floor vs ceiling choice to make here. Chubb has a rock solid floor, but a healthy Kareen Hunt slightly limits his PPR upside.
Whereas Drakes PPR upside is top 3 RBs, but it feels like there is a much lower floor. When put to the test in a high stakes draft, I opted for Drake. Fingers crossed! Good luck
Appreciate it!
For me Drake is #1 over Chubb in full point ppr. I like Chubb in .5 or less but Hunt will get a lot of snaps so it depends on how well chubb does on 15 touches in this years Browns offense. I think they rebound but it is risky business. Arizona traded for Drake with good running backs who were producing in the offense. People forget David Johnson was getting 20+ points in PPR that year. And Chase was winning DFS weeks for millions. The Arizona offense is fantasy friendly and whomever is the the rb1 (they paid Drake to keep him this year) will be a top 5 running back in PPR. Chubb could be but this year I’m really trying to be safe and why draft questions if you don’t have to. Loving Alan’s articles here and he should write about the new Texans offense in Houston next. Watson has never been less that a QB 5 his whole career and has been QB 1-3 more often. Give him David Johnson and Duke Johnson to throw to with 3 burners really seems cool to me especially with the Left Tackle locked down again.
good stuff…!
I disagree with Sez here ( sorry )
Drake cannot be trusted in a keeper or dynasty league
Chubb is the guy and for me it isn’t close ( then again I have zero point zero shares of drake this SZN )
everyone is talking about how he is finally in a dynamic offense, and has a dynamic QB for once…
but no one is considering the TD vulturing of one Kyler Murray or the fact drake has never really been called on for 30 touches a game ( at least not in recent years )
add to the fact its keeper and chubb is just getting started, and hunt is a free agent next szn
its a no brainer for me
Great take Oldschool! Well said dude
Good to see you guys in here helping each other out! Hope everyone is doing well and staying safe!
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Attention #RWNation: PLEASE UPLOAD an AVATAR.
Go to- http://en.gravatar.com/and create an account, that has same email address as your RW PRO account- and then upload an avatar. It’s very easy and super quick.
That’s it, it will all work automatically on this site from there. A few people have had to log out and log back in to RW Pro to see their avatars the first time. Thank you!
Someone there already took my Oldschool92 name there so I haven’t put in an avatar.
I went ahead and changed my name so I could get an avatar.
I like Drake over Chubb in any PPR formats. I think Hunt will eat into Chubb receptions more than anyone on Cards will do to Drake. Good problem to have but I’d keep Drake.