Chris Godwin– Kenyan Drake– Austin Ekeler– ADPs On The Move
by Alan Seslowsky

Most of the major free agents have found new homes. As players change teams, get paired up with new offenses and adapt to new coaches and schemes, this has a direct effect on ADP movement in early best ball drafts. Here are a few of the key players we have our eye on.

Chris Godwin (ADP 18/ WR6)

Tom Brady‘s decision to finish out his career in Tampa Bay has had a widespread effect on the fantasy football landscape. The market’s impulse reaction was to move away from both Tampa WRs Godwin and Mike Evans. In 2019, let’s not forget Godwin finished as the WR2 overall, better than Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and four points per game better than Amari Cooper. RosterWatch has warmed up to the idea that even though Chris Godwin may have a hard time replicating 2019’s numbers, he will be less adversely affected by the change in QB style. Brady has always looked to get rid of the ball quickly, and Chris Godwin could be the beneficiary of those receptions.  We are recommending him as a strong WR1 play in the late 2nd round. 

 

Kenyan Drake (ADP 20/ RB14) 

A big upgrade for Drake as he recently signed an $8.5 million transition tag. As well, the Cardinals traded away David Johnson and brought in star WR DeAndre Hopkins. If we can expect Drake’s role from late last season to roll over into 2020, we need to start thinking about Drake as a late first-round pick. Looking at Drake’s last three games from 2019 he averaged over 120 rushing yards per game, scored a whopping seven TDs and caught seven passes over that span. At the time of this publication, you can still get Drake in best ball drafts around the 16th pick, which still gives us an opportunity to get ahead of the market on a player with significant upside.

 

Austin Ekeler (ADP 15/ RB11)

The L.A. Chargers secured the services of Austin Ekeler with a four year, $24.5 million contract ($15 million guaranteed). Here at RosterWatch, we recognize the talent and what he was able to do for fantasy owners in 2019, but have some concerns. Ekeler only had a single game of 100 rushing yards in 2019. We also do not know who will be under center for the Chargers in 2020. The uncertainty of a young rookie QB could hurt the offense as a whole. RosterWatch’s strategically constructed best ball cheat sheet, which leverages ADP and is not just simple rankings, accounts for this uncertainty and allows us to not get into a full fade of Austin Ekeler. However, GM Tom Telesco all but guaranteed us 15-18 + touches/gm at the Combine in late February. While Anthony Lynn sang the praises of Justin Jackson, and obviously the Chargers have a deep rookie RB draft class at their disposal, as well. Thus, we are currently in a holding pattern with Austin Ekeler as a fine play in the middle of the 2nd round, until we get more information. 

 

Hayden Hurst (ADP 136/ TE20) 

Going a bit deeper, we could not ignore the biggest riser in the market over the last two weeks. Before Hurst was traded from Baltimore to Atlanta his ADP was around 230, the 19th round. He is now going at pick 136 and is approximately the TE20. RosterWatch analysts like Hayden Hurst. He has reliable hands, catching 30 of 39 targets (77%) in 2019. He is a better athlete than the TE he is replacing, Austin Hooper. RosterWatch was very impressed with Hurst when we scouted him at his pro day.